MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-13-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Chris Tillman has faced the Yankees and Astros to start the season, and will now face the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Not a great stretch of matchups for him, but Tillman hasn't been good for some time. Through two starts this season, he has allowed 15 hits, 8 walks, and 9 earned runs. Tillman allowed 24 home runs in 93 innings over the 2017 season, allowing a .400+ wOBA to both sides of the plate. Tonight doesn't bode well for Tillman, as this Red Sox offense is coming off a monster offensive series against the Yankees. While Hanley Ramirez likely won't be in the lineup, Mitch Moreland is a cheap bat to fill in. Last season, Moreland battled some injuries, but had over a .213 ISO against right-handers. He was also a fairly unlucky bat, with a wOBA of .328, but xwOBA of .440. All these bats grade out pretty well against Tillman, who throws his fastball under 50% of the time, but none of his off-speed stuff scares me off. Outside of his curveball, each pitch he allowed over a .170 ISO last season, and did not generate a whiff rate over 12%.

The power in this lineup is more so from the right side, given Fenway is better for right-hander power than left, but that won't stop me from using the three lefties here either. If you wanted to get exposure to some guys like Eduardo Nunez or Jackie Bradley Jr, you can do so to be contrarian in what should be likely the most popular stack of the night. With a 12-game slate on our hands, you can put contrarian one-offs with the Sox, or use a lesser owned arm to make your move. Because this is baseball you can make the case for fading bats, but if I am choosing bats, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez grade out so well tonight, they are tough to pass on in any format. Betts has been one of the best hitters in baseball to start the season, and had a .190 ISO off right-handers last season. Martinez has a 75% hard-contact rate against right-handers this season, and things will start to drop for Martinez in 2018. Last year, he had a .402 wOBA and .351 ISO. You can also look at the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals as other popular stacks in good spots.

The Pirates are tied with the Angels for team wOBA this season, and they actually lead the league in ISO. Averaging 6.4 runs per game this season, the Pirates have been overlooked from a DFS standpoint, although a majority of their games have been early. On a full slate tonight in Marlins Park, I expect the Pirates to be rather low owned, even some of their bigger bats. Dillon Peters is coming off a start where he allowed nine earned runs to the Phillies. Things will not get easier tonight. He has a small MLB sample size, allowing a .343 wOBA and 1.38 HR/9 to right-handers since last season. Peters has three pitches, a low 90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. He relies more on the off-speed stuff than the fastball, and allowing over a .400 wOBA off it, can you blame him? His curveball is decent when it is on, but the changeup is just as bad as his fastball.

We should see a ton of right-handed bats in the lineup, as Gregory Polanco will be the only lefty likely to be in the lineup. Josh Harrison posted strong numbers off lefties last season, with a .369 wOBA and .202 ISO. Josh Bell also had over a .200 ISO, and then you have superstar Jordy Mercer projected in the two spot, who has had a 41% hard-contact rate against southpaws. Marte hasn't had notable lefty numbers, but a career .338 wOBA and .154 ISO isn't bad. You will get guys like Francisco Cervelli and David Freese, who had 34% hard-contact rates going back to last season.

First we will need to keep an eye on Lorenzo Cain, who has been day-to-day lately. If he is in the lineup, sign me up. He had a .349 wOBA and .200 ISO off southpaws last season, which is his notable strength in the DFS world. After that we have an abundance of right-handed power bats, that had over a .200 ISO off lefties. Hernan Perez is the only one who doesn't fit that bill, but did have a .337 wOBA and 80% contact rate. If you were to leave out one from this stack, it would be him, especially with how their who stack is basically OF. Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, and Jesus Aguilar had over a 42% hard-contact rate off lefties in 2017. Outside of Braun on DK, all these bats are way too cheap for the upside. You can use this stack with expensive pitching options with expensive one-offs.

Steven Matz has not been bad to start the season, allowing just three earned runs over two starts. Matz is giving up a ton of contact so far this season, sitting at 85%, and has just a 5.5% swinging strike rate. While he has 12 strikeouts, and there could be some strikeouts here tonight, walks and home runs could bite Matz. The lefty allowed a .370 wOBA to right-handed bats last season, with a 2.06 HR/9.