MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-3-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

After talking about Houston last night, they are probably going to be a team I just highlight in the intro instead of make a featured stack. Their offense is good, as everybody knows, and when facing weaker pitchers they will be a chalky stack. Feel free to fire away 1-9 again. Instead I will dive into some lower to average ownership stacks that might get overlooked.

Chicago has faced a couple of lefties already this season, and J.A. Happ might be the best one they've faced, which I don't know where I am going with that to be honest. Happ is an average lefty, and doesn't allow a ton of blowup starts, but the upside is there for the White Sox. Jose Abreu and Matt Davidson are the two stellar options, both carrying an ISO over .200 against southpaws since last season. Welington Castillo is also in that mix, with a .223 ISO and .389 wOBA against southpaws in 2017. Yoan Monada is going to be a contrarian option for most of the season. He has a ton of pop, but is a big swing and miss guy. His 31.1% strikeout rate isn't appealing against lefties, but leading off I don't mind him. You can also leave him out of the stack and start it with Avisail Garcia, who had a .434 wOBA off lefties, and a 39.4% hard-contact rate.

I am never terribly high on stacking against Happ, because he tends to do what he did against the Yankees a lot instead of really blowing up. In 2017 he did have four starts allowing five or more runs. He was average against right-handers, allowing a .317 wOBA in 2017. Of course this is a small sample size against a New York team that mashes, but Happ allowed four batted balls with an EV over 105mph. These mid-ranges prices are tough to pass up against Happ in the Rogers Centre, which was above average for right-handed power in 2017.

Miguel Gonzalez is one of the poorer pitchers on the slate, and a Toronto stack is in order at these price tags. I know they are struggling, but man this is a cheap stack to pair with a high upside pitcher. Gonzalez had just a 36.2% groundball rate, 14.6% strikeout rate, and struggled on the road allowing a .360 wOBA last season. Gonzalez struggled against lefties, allowing a .360 wOBA and a 1.34 HR/9. The hard-contact is also up to 34.3%. Righties still managed a .314 wOBA and 1.20 HR/9, but things should have been much worse. Gonzalez had some major blowup games last season, allowing five or more earned runs in seven starts. He also had two starts allowing six earned, and two starts allowing seven earned. In those seven starts he allowed 11 total home runs. There is huge potential for the Jays tonight, but some of their bats are also not the safest.

Toronto is off to a sluggish start, and Josh Donaldson being hindered by a shoulder injury is not fun too. While I feel I could leave him out, it might be contrarian to leave him in right now. When healthy, he had a .388 wOBA and .260 ISO off right-handed pitching last season. Devon Travis is another one who has been banged up the last few years, and hard to tell if healthy led to a diminished 2017 season. Travis had just a .281 wOBA off right-handed pitching in 2017, but a .376 xwOBA and 82% contact rate. Jutsin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, and Curtis Granderson are the healthier bats of the group and boast some power against righties. Granderson and Smoak had over a .250 ISO against right-handers last season, while Solarte had a .193 ISO. That was playing half his games in Petco Park too.

I am the founder of the Anti Josh Tomlin Club, vowing to stack against him every start. That is the case tonight, and I will let his stats dictate why. Tomlin owns a career 1.54 HR/9, and projections expect that to be around 1.75 or so this season. He is bound to have an ERA north of 4.50, as he did last season. Tomlin is a flyball pitcher, with a 39.6% groundball rate, and 13.7% HR/FB rate. He allowed a 1.37 HR/9 to lefties last season and a 1.54 HR/9 to righties. The hard-contact was also way up, being over 34% to both sides. Tomlin also threw his cutter 36% of the time last season. Zack Cozart, Mike Trout, and Justin Upton all posted over a .400 wOBA off cutters. Tomlin allowed a .355 wOBA and .194 ISO off that pitch, and a .261 ISO off his combined fastballs.

With Ian Kinsler hitting the DL, Zack Cozart has been hitting leadoff. His hot Spring has carried over to the 2018 regular season. Given the numbers of him and his other two teammates above against Tomlin's cutter, I love the front three in this stack just a bit more than guys like Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun. The Angels stack is a bit more expensive than prior years, but it won't kill you.