MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-6-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Yes, Houston and New York are on the slate in good spots. We are about ten days into the season, and you should probably know by now that both those offenses are very good. You won't find them in the stacking article often when I write, unless it is a small slate with little to offer. Boasting two of the best offenses in baseball, and sitting with popular names, they will be popular stacks on a nightly basis. I will tend to focus on some lesser offenses that need a bit more breaking down than naming Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez.

There is some weather concerns in this game, as Texas thunderstorms have started early. I am not a meteorologist, and don't intend to be. My frail feelings can't handle the Twitter trolls. A late start or spotty delays should be the case here, but do keep an eye on it just in case. Winds are blowing out to center and right from the forecast, at about 15-20mph. Not something I am weighting heavily, but it is a small thing to note. The Rangers have been abysmal to start the year, sitting 24th in wRC+, ISO, and wOBA. They also have a 23.6% strikeout rate. Small sample size to start the year, and playing a majority of their games away from home, or against Houston pitching, this is a bit understandable. I have been talking about their struggles on the road last season, but have yet to talk about them being at home. They ranked 5th in wOBA and 6th in ISO.

Marco Estrada is a flyball pitcher, which doesn't bode well with this team and ballpark. He allowed a 1.51 HR/9 to left-handed bats last year, which this Texas team has quite a few of. Texas has the power, and at these prices I won't shy away from them even at higher ownership. Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, and Shin-Soo Choo are the three lefties I will be targeting. Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus are fine too, especially at their prices. Beltre had a .385 wOBA off changeups last season, which Estrada threw 30% of the time in 2017. Andrus had a .216 ISO off changeups, while the other bats were average.

Matt Moore moving from San Francisco to Texas isn't going to revive his career. I expect him to get shelled tonight against a Jays team that has some lefty mashers. Moore allowed a 35.1% hard-contact rate to right-handed bats last season, with a 1.24 HR/9. Allowing a 45.4% flyball rate to right-handers in this atmosphere is not promising for a positive outcome tonight. Global Life Park was league average for right-handed power last season, but with wind blowing out, this is an above average spot for hitters.

Josh Donaldson headlines the Jays bats, and will be one of the more popular ones on the slate. He had a .427 wOBA and .400 ISO off left-handers last season, with a 42.2% hard-contact rate. Second is Justin Smoak, who had a .409 wOBA and .236 ISO against southpaws, and cuts his strikeout rate down 10%. You are going to get some lesser bats that had a solid track record against southpaws. Steve Pearce had a .227 ISO against southpaws, Devon Travis .436 wOBA, Randal Grichuk .194 ISO, and Kevin Pillar was sneaky good with a .395 wOBA and .224 ISO last season.

Seeing which hitters profile well against Moore is the next step. Donaldson and Grichuk both had over a .350 wOBA against knuckle curves last season, and over a 40% hard-contact rate. Moore throws that knuckle curve about 20% of the time. Moore tops out at about 92 mph, and in this range, Donaldson, Smoak, Pearce, and Grichuk all grade out well. This game is an attractive stack on both sides, or just an overall game stack.

The Angels are going to be a lower owned late night hammer stack against Oakland. The Angels have been solid, but haven't had the all-around stack go off just yet. I was talking on the podcast today about Mike Trout potentially being lower owned than last season. Why? Because when the Bryce Harpers and Yankees bats are on the slate, there are other pay up options that crowd him. That might be the case again tonight. Other names should be overlooked as well, so outside of Trout and Upton, everyone should have pretty low ownership.

Daniel Gossett is a below average right-hander, and was hit hard by right-handed bats last season (35.8%). He isn't a big swing and miss guy, outside of his slider. Gossett mixes up his slider, sinker, and knuckle curve well, but all three had over a .200 ISO against. Gossett allowed a whopping 2.53 HR/9 to right-handed bats last season, and 1.42 HR/9 to lefties. The only lefty in the stack is Kole Calhoun, who should benefit from the wall change in right. Out of the front five here, the top three all had over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. They are the primary bats, where Calhoun and Pujols round out the stack.