Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Los Angeles Angels (5.2) Vs. Alex Cobb (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.320 34.7% .158 18.1% 8.3% 37.4%

Vs. RHB

.327 26.2% .166 15.0% 3.9%

36.9%

30 hits, three home runs, 20 earned runs, four strikeouts, three walks. Those are Alex Cobb's numbers across his first three games. Overall, Cobb has a 13.11 ERA and a 2.83 WHIP, making him a prime target to stack against tonight. Obviously, those numbers probably won't continue, but until they regress, I am going to stick with the strategy of picking on him. Dating back to last season, Cobb is a low-strikeout pitcher that has struggled with hard contact to both sides of the plate. Cobb has been a three-pitch pitcher this season, riding a 91 MPH four-seam fastball, a splitter, and a knuckle-curve. All three pitches have been obliterated by hitters on both sides of the plate, but it has been his splitter and knuckle-curves that have been his biggest issues, as right-handed hitters have posted ISOs of 1.500 and .500 against the pitches, while left-handed hitters have posted .250 ISOs and .286 ISOs against them. I will definitely be starting my stack with Ian Kinsler (.322 wOBA, .362 OBP, 10.6% K-rate) as he was outstanding against splitters last season, with a .788 xwOBA against the pitch and a .344 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs. After Kinsler, it is tough to overlook Mike Trout (.444 wOBA, .433 OBP, .347 ISO) as he has posted a .371 ISO against four-seam fastballs, followed by Justin Upton (.343 wOBA, .333 OBP, .225 ISO) who has posted a .405 ISO against four-seam fastballs and a .294 ISO against knuckle-curves. Albert Pujols (.318 wOBA, .290 OBP, 14% K-rate) has excelled against knuckle-curves, posting a .462 ISO against the pitch, while Martin Maldonado (.267 wOBA, .261 OBP, .145 ISO) is a decent catcher option as he has mashed knucklers, posting a .377 xwOBA against the pitch.

Minnesota Twins (5.1) Vs. Marco Estrada (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.292

49.1%

.197

22.0%

6.9%

23.6%

Vs. RHB

.375

52.4%

.203

21.2%

10.0%

30.8%

Home runs and fly balls have plagued Marco Estrada both this season and last season. In two of his five outings this season, Estrada has surrendered more than one homer, while allowing at least one in four of his outings. He has also surrendered at least four earned runs in three straight games this season. His struggles have primarily come from the right side of the plate, with a 52.4% flyball rate and a .375 wOBA allowed, however, he has also allowed 1.43 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters dating back to last season. Estrada's issues this season have stemmed mostly from his changeup, a pitch he has thrown 30% of the time this season, as left-handed hitters have posted a .227 ISO against the pitch while right-handed hitters have posted a .200 ISO against it. Right-handed hitters are also obliterating his 89 MPH four-seam fastball, a pitch he has thrown them 59% of the time, as they have posted a .444 ISO against it.

Brian Dozier (.201 ISO, .340 wOBA, .338 OBP) is obviously a great place to start with the stack tonight as he has posted a .294 ISO against changeups, while Miguel Sano (.229 ISO, .345 wOBA, .333 OBP) is a strikeout prone option to consider tonight if he makes the lineup. Even though Sano doesn't profile as a great changeup hitter, with just a .273 xwOBA against the pitch, he does mash low-velocity four-seam fastballs, as he posted a .857 ISO against it last season. Unfortunately, the Twins don't have a lot of right-handed hitters to use in this spot, so the hope is that Sano is healthy enough to play here. Beyond those two right-handed hitters, some lefties to consider would be Eddie Rosario (.259 ISO, .370 wOBA, .338 OBP) as he posted a .667 ISO against low-velocity fastballs and a .324 xwOBA against changeups, and Eduardo Escobar (.222 ISO, .335 wOBA, .315 OBP) who posted a .286 ISO against changeups last season. Logan Morrison (.274 ISO, .355 wOBA, .340 BOP) has obliterated changeups, with a .381 ISO against the pitch, while Max Kepler (.213 ISO, .353 wOBA, .345 OBP) posted a .250 ISO against low-velocity four-seam fastballs last season.

Miami Marlins (4.3) Vs. Zach Eflin (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.384

40.9%

.270

13.0%

5.6%

36.4%

Vs. RHB

.359

34.7%

.202

11.8%

3.5%

29.3%

Call me crazy, most people do, but the Marlins are in a fantastic spot tonight against Zach Eflin and the Phillies. I get it, Miami is terrible. Everyone loves taking pitchers against them. They rank nearly dead last in every statistical category this season. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. All of that makes me like them even more because they will likely be extremely overlooked in this spot. Eflin has been a terrible pitcher in the Majors, with a 6.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 12.5% strikeout rate, and 85.2% contact rate last season. His 2018 season is just getting started tonight, at least at the major league level, but he is just 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh this season. In 2017, Eflin relied heavily on his 93 MPH four-seam fastball, throwing it about 45% of the time, while mixing in a two-seam fastball about 23% of the time. He also sprinkled in a slider about 18% of the time to right-handed hitters and mixed in some changeups and curveballs along the way. His slider and four-seam fastballs were his big problem areas, allowing a .323 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .245 ISO to right-handed hitters with his four-seam fastball and a .857 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .235 ISO to right-handed hitters with his slider.

Justin Bour (.247 ISO, .379 wOBA, .372 OBP) is a great place to start off with a stack tonight, as he posted a .447 ISO against sliders and a .250 ISO against two-seam fastballs last season, while J.T. Realmuto (.176 ISO, .339 wOBA, .334 BOP) obliterated four-seam fastballs with a .231 ISO against the pitch last season. Beyond those two, Starlin Castro (.132 ISO, .315 wOBA, .317 OBP) is a great option to get on base and Derek Dietrich (.164 ISO, .304 wOBA, .311 OBP) posted a .256 ISO against sliders last season. Miguel Rojas (.312 wOBA, .344 OBP) is a great cheap option, and so is Brian Anderson (.301 wOBA, .346 OBP), but Cameron Maybin (.149 ISO, .300 wOBA, .319 OBP) could be the overlooked option here. Maybin was outstanding against four-seam fastballs like Eflin's, posting a .410 xwOBA against the pitch, and Martin Prado (.274 wOBA, .273 OBP) is a great contact hitter to consider, as well.



Comments
No comments.