MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-15-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

While it may seem crazy to pick on Yu Darvish, because of the strikeout potential he normally poses, this is a great spot for the Braves. Darvish has struggled against left-handed hitters dating back to last season, allowing a .338 wOBA and .198 ISO to the handedness, and that has carried into this season where he is allowing a .369 wOBA and .211 ISO to them. Right-handed hitters have hit him hard this season, as well, with a .222 ISO and .340 wOBA allowed to them. While the splits against right-handed hitters may not hold true through the entire season, it is something that is happening now and we have to take note of it. Specifically, his fastballs have getting hammered by right-handed hitters, allowing a .462 wOBA with his four-seam fastball, a .404 wOBA with his two-seam fastball, and a .371 wOBA with his cutter. To left-handed hitters, he is allowing a .545 wOBA and .563 ISO to sliders, a pitch he has thrown 20% of the time, along with a .341 wOBA with his two-seam fastball and a .372 wOBA with his four-seam fastball. We should be targeting hitters that hit sliders and fastballs from the left side of the plate and right-handed hitters that hit cutters, two-seamers, and four-seamers. That clearly starts with Freddie Freeman (.280 ISO, .418 wOBA, 16.2% K-rate) who has blasted two-seam fastballs since 2016 with a .303 ISO and .401 wOBA. He has posted a massive .288 ISO and 441 wOBA against 95 MPH four-seam fastballs, as well, which is Darvish's pitch that he throws about 25% of the time to the left side of the plate. After Freeman, Ozzie Albies (.211 ISO, .333 wOBA, 18.2% K-rate) is an excellent option. He has posted a .466 xwOBA and 48% hard hit rate against 94 MPH four-seam fastballs, along with a .294 ISO and .380 xwOBA against sliders. In a very small sample size, just five batted ball events, Ronald Acuna (.171 ISO, .324 wOBA, 27.3% K-rate) has raked against sliders with a .545 ISO and 60% hard contact rate, while Nick Markakis (.121 ISO, .336 wOBA, 14.2% K-rate) has been on fire this season and has posted great contact numbers against two-seam fastballs, cutters, and sliders. Feel free to target Kurt Suzuki (.218 ISO, .347 wOBA, 12.1% K-rate) as a great power threat at the catcher position, as he has posted a .345 ISO against sliders dating back to 2016 and great contact numbers against cutters and two-seam fastballs. Don't overlook Ryan Flahery, Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, or Jose Bautista towards the bottom of the lineup, although only Flaherty stands out as someone I have interest in as a good option.

The Braves above, and Dodgers below, are perhaps my favorite stacks of the night but the Tigers come in as an excellent value stack tonight against Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has struggled all season long, allowing 23 earned runs, with 13 homers, in 25.2 innings of play. Home runs continue to be an issue, along with flyballs, from both sides of the plate. He has allowed a .225 ISO or higher to both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters since 2017, and while the Tigers are extremely short handed, that won't bode well here tonight. The only pitch that seems to be working for him is his cutter, as opponents are posting just a .176 ISO against the pitch since last season, while the rest of his pitches, a 87 MPH four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastballs, and a curveball have at least a .235 ISO allowed. Right-handed hitters have posted a .636 ISO against his four-seam fastball, and .600 ISO against his curveball, while left-handed hitters have posted a .267 ISO against his four-seam fastball, a .375 ISO against his cutter, a .778 ISO against his curveball, a .333 ISO against his two-seam/sinker, and a .429 ISO against his changeup. Those are some pretty impressive power numbers he is allowing and that makes the Tigers some great options here.

Mikie Mahtook (.318 wOBA, .152 ISO, 21.6% K-rate) is likely going to lead off tonight doesn't have great numbers against Tomlin's pitch mix but he does have a contact rate of about 80% against each of his pitches, making him a target for those looking to lock in someone that can get on base against Tomlin tonight. Peter Kozma (.235 wOBA, .129 ISO, 42% K-rate) doesn't jump off the page as a great player but he only has 35 plate appearances against right-handed pitching dating back to last season and has looked much better at the plate in limited attempts this season. Victor Martinez (.310 wOBA, .132 ISO, 13.6% K-rate) has obliterated low-velocity four-seam fastballs with a .438 ISO against the pitch since 2016, while John Hicks (.338 wOBA, .186 ISO, 25.65 K-rate) has posted a .375 ISO against cutters. Despite looking terrible against RHP last season, JaCoby Jones (.339 wOBA, .205 ISO, .27.1% K-rate) has improved in 84 at-bats against them this season. He has seen very few cutters in his career but has posted a .286 ISO against the pitch. Niko Goodrum (.318 wOBA, .176 ISO, 33.3% K-rate) has also looked better at the plate this season and is another good value bat here. If Nicholas Castellanos (.328 wOBA, .185 ISO, 23% K-rate) is able to return tonight, he trumps all of these guys as the top option from the Detroit side of this game.

Sigh... Another spot where the Dodgers should be able to take advantage of a bad pitcher and another spot where they could definitely let us down. The Dodgers have been terrible lately but they should be getting both Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner back tonight and that could definitely help them out here. I will get to the Dodgers bat shortly but let me talk about Chen first. The road has not been kind to Chen in his past two starts, as he has allowed 13 runs and five homers in seven innings, and he will be hoping that being back at home will benefit him. Well, the bad news for Chen is that it didn't help him last season as he posted a putrid 6.75 ERA at home last season, as opposed to a 2.14 on the road. Now, his innings were limited by injuries last season so let's examine his 2016 numbers. Oh, well, he had a 5.49 ERA at home and 4.48 ERA on the road. So, in a pretty big sample, we can see that Chen has been terrible at home even though he pitches in a very pitcher friendly environment. He has allowed a massive .274 ISO to right-handed hitters dating back to last season, and a .196 ISO to left-handed hitters, making hitters from both sides of the plate in play here. Chen's 90 MPH four-seam fastball and his slider have been blasted by left-handed hitters this season, with ISOs allowed of .800 and .429 respectively, and he has struggled with his two-seam fastball, four-seam fastball, and slider to right-handed hitters. Against right-handed hitters, Chen has allowed a .600 ISO on his two-seam fastball, a .333 ISO on his four-seam fastball, and a 1.000 ISO on his slider. Obviously, some of those numbers will regress, but until that time comes, I will be taking bats against him.

The first bat I want to look at is the typical platoon bat, Enrique Hernandez (.272 ISO, .370 wOBA, 19.9% K-rate) who has posted a .250 ISO against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs, a .270 ISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .200 ISO against sliders since 2017. Hernandez is always a cheaper way to get exposure to the Dodgers offense, albeit one that tends to be popular at times. After Hernandez, the returning Justin Turner (.484 wOBA, .324 ISO, 8.7% K-rate) is a great 3B option if he indeed returns to the lineup tonight. Turner posted a massive .526 ISO against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs, a .429 ISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .421 ISO against sliders last season. Chris Taylor (.345 wOBA, .195 ISO, 24.5% K-rate) is an interesting bat tonight, as well. He posted a .370 ISO against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs last season, along with a .286 ISO against two-seam fastballs. Cody Bellinger (.351 wOBA, .257 ISO, 25.1% K-rate) is a great option despite the lefty-vs-lefty matchup and he posted a .526 ISO against four-seam fastballs and a .556 ISO against sliders last season. Yasmani Grandal (.313 wOBA, .128 ISO, 26% K-rate) has shown off some better numbers against southpaws this season, with a .346 wOBA and .154 ISO, and had a .273 ISO against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs and a .400 ISO against two-seam fastballs last season. Matt Kemp (.429 wOBA, .195 ISO, 21.7% K-rate) doesn't have a large sample since last season against LHP, with just 46 at-bats, but he had a .273 ISO against two-seam fastballs. Lastly, Logan Forsythe (.357 wOBA, .146 ISO, 23.1% K-rate) is also slated to return tonight and posted a .211 ISO against four-seam fastballs and .235 ISO against sliders last season. All of these Dodger bats are great options tonight, and don't overlook someone like Austin Barnes if he makes the lineup tonight for some reason.