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Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Pittsburgh Pirates (4.9) Vs. Eric Lauer (L)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.281 36.4% .000 18.8% 6.3% 25.0%

Vs. RHB

.483 37.5% .317 17.7% 10.3%

51.0%

Tonight's matchup between the Pirates and Padres features two pitchers that have terrible splits against their opposing handedness, making both teams excellent targets tonight. I will get to the Padres below but let me get the Pirates out of the way first. Lauer made his home debut against the Cardinals a few days ago and, well, it didn't go so well. Lauer allowed four homers and six runs over 2.2 innings and he showed some concerning signs with his fastball velocity, as it dipped to 89 MPH, and his lack of command with the pitch. As you can see from the cart above, right-handed hitters have blasted Lauer in his 16.1 innings, posting a massive .483 wOBA and .317 ISO against him. Lauer is relying on his four-seam fastball a little too much, throwing it about 44% of the time, and right-handed hitters have posted a .391 ISO and .547 wOBA against it. His cutter, that he is throwing about 10% of the time, has seen hitters post a .600 ISO against it, while his changeup, another pitch he is throwing about 10% of the time, has seen hitters post a .500 ISO and .632 wOBA against it. As you can see, Lauer doesn't have a single pitch that he can rely on right now, and while it is a very small sample, we have to at least consider that it can continue going forward.

Jose Osuna (.241 ISO, .333 wOBA, 14.0% K-rate) got cleanup duties yesterday against another southpaw and is a great option tonight, regardless of batting order. Osuna has posted a massive .385 ISO and .367 wOBA against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs in his career, albeit just 11 batted ball events, making him my top option. Max Moroff (.163 ISO, .317 wOBA, 26.0% K-rate) has been handling leadoff duties against southpaws recently and has posted a 40% hard hit rating against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs and .376 xwOBA against cutters, while David Freese (.094 ISO, .343 wOBA, 20.5% K-rate) has posted a .167 ISO and .388 wOBA against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs. While the 2017-2018 numbers for Freese against LHP aren't great, his career numbers, a .158 ISO and .363 wOBA, are and that makes him a good value option. Sean Rodriguez (.250 ISO, .387 wOBA, .37.3% K-rate) is strikeout prone but also has a ton of power, although he generally bats towards the bottom of the lineup. Rodriguez has posted a massive .520 ISO against 90 MPH four-seam fastballs dating back to 2016. Elias Diaz (.145 ISO, .336 wOBA, 14.0% K-rate) will likely be behind the dish with Cervelli battling a forearm injury, while Jordy Mercer (.145 ISO, .338 xwOBA, 14.8% K-rate) is a good option at the bottom of the lineup. Starling Marte (.106 ISO, .360 xwOBA) is also battling an injury and may miss this game but is a viable option should he be able to go.

Colorado Rockies (3.9) Vs. Jeff Samardzija (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.340

42.0%

.232

24.5%

5.9%

32.5%

Vs. RHB

.288

32.7%

.147

22.4%

3.8%

27.6%

This season hasn't been kind to Samardzija as he has looked completely terrible of late. He has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts, his velocity is down about 2 MPH across the board, and his walk rate has increased 10% since last year. All signs are pointing to Shark being injured still, yet the Giants are continuing to trot him out to get blasted. While the production he has allowed in the table above doesn't look that bad, his production allowed this season is. He has allowed a .478 wOBA and .349 ISO to left-handed hitters, and a .256 wOBA to right-handed hitters and a flyball rate over 42% to both sides of the plate. He is playing in a spacious ball park that can help mitigate the flyballs but with some of the left-handed hitters in this lineup, he can still be in trouble. We can point to three specific pitches for Shark's troubles, his two-seam fastball, his four-seam fastball, and his slider. Left-handed hitters have posted a .333 ISO and .433 wOBA against his four-seam fastball, a pitch that he is throwing 22.77% of the time, a .500 ISO and .550 wOBA against his two-seam fastball, a pitch that he is throwing 38% of the time, and a .444 ISO and .357 wOBA against his slider. So, even though the Rockies have been pretty darn terrible outside of Coors, the left-handed hitters are in a great spot tonight.

Targeting the Rockies that hit those pitches will be key, and that starts with Charlie Blackmon (.294 ISO, .414 wOBA, 20.4% K-rate). Blackmon put up a .344 ISO against 92 MPH four-seam fastballs, a .292 ISO against two-seam fastballs, and a .361 ISO against sliders last season. After Blackmon, David Dahl (.237 ISO, .445 wOBA, 27.9% K-rate) is a good option if he makes the lineup. Since 2016, Dahl has posted a .400 ISO against four-seam fastballs and a .250 ISO against two-seam fastballs, although he only has 20 batted ball events. If Dahl doesn't make the lineup then it will be either Gerardo Parra (.150 ISO, .328 wOBA, 14.3% K-rate) or Carlos Gonzalez (.194 ISO, .351 wOBA, 20.4% K-rate) that gets in over him. Gonzalez posted a .250 ISO against four-seam fastballs last season, and a .445 xwOBA against two-seam fastballs, while Gerardo Parra posted a .222 ISO against four-seam fastballs and .200 ISO against two-seam fastballs. Hopefully, Tony Wolters is behind the dish tonight because he would be a great value C option despite his somewhat horrible numbers against RHP.

San Diego Padres (3.7) Vs. Chad Kuhl (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.382

42.7%

.246

22.0%

11.7%

39.9%

Vs. RHB

.302

29.4%

.119

8.6%

8.6%

33.0%

As I mentioned when discussing the Pirates, I plan on attacking both sides of this game as Chad Kuhl has been absolutely putrid against left-handed hitters and the Padres actually have some formidable lefties in their lineup. While the left-handed Padres are more of a tournament stack, as they are strikeout prone, they will definitely be lower owned and make for great options here. As you can see from the table above, left-handed hitters have posted a massive .382 wOBA, .246 ISO, and 39.9% hard contact rating against Kuhl dating back to last season. It has been even worse for him this season, as they have posted a .400 wOBA, .338 ISO, and 37.0% hard contact rating against him. Looking at his pitch mix and the ISO/wOBA allowed on them is terrifying but I will break that down, as well. He is throwing his sinker 43.90% of the time, a pitch that he has allowed a .353 ISO and .414 wOBA with, while mixing in his 95 MPH four-seam fastball about 20% of the time. He is allowing a .231 ISO and .341 wOBA on his four-seam fastball. He is peppering in a changeup about 15% of the time, and allowing a .500 ISO and .758 wOBA on that which basically rounds out the majority of his pitches.

Eric Hosmer (.214 ISO, .378 wOBA, 22.9% K-rate) is my favorite option here as he posted a .247 ISO against sinkers last season, and a .382 ISO against changeups, and will bat towards the middle of the lineup for San Diego tonight. Raffy Lopez (.261 ISO, .373 wOBA, 33.35 K-rate) has mashed against two-seam fastballs/sinkers in a short period, posting a .429 ISO against the pitch, while Franchy Cordero (.212 ISO, .344 wOBA, 36.1% K-rate) is a great power option here. Travis Jankowski (.331 wOBA, .372 OBP, 21.7% K-rate) doesn't have a lot of power but is a great threat to get on base here and Freddy Galvis (.122 ISO, .298 wOBA, 19.4% K-rate) flashed a .333 ISO against two-seam/sinkers last season. Cory Spangenberg (.161 ISO, .336 wOBA, 23.4% K-rate) posted a .296 ISO against two-seam/sinkers last season will hopefully find himself in the lineup tonight and is another great option. Don't overlook Carlos Asuaje (.321 wOBA, .333 OBP, 23.1% K-rate) if he makes the lineup, either.

Honorable Mention: Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. Both of those will be popular options, so using any of these three stacks in conjunction with them is fine. The Rockies and Padres will be low-owned options tonight.



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