MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-22-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

We finally have a night where the Astros should be a chalk stack and I am 100% okay with eating that chalk. The Astros get to take on the young Andrew Suarez making his fifth start of the season. We are still dealing with a pretty limited sample size with Suarez, and he does have some decent strikeout stuff and excellent command, but he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his five outings this season and has shown off some pretty massive splits against right-handed hitters. Suarez has a pretty deep pitch arsenal, throwing his 92 MPH four-seam fastball about 47% of the time, while mixing in a slider 26.54% of the time, along with a changeup he throws 12% of the time and a curveball he throws 14% of the time. He also sprinkles in a cutter and two-seam fastball occasionally, although he has only thrown those pitches 11 times this season. Opponents are posting a .375 ISO on his four-seam fastball, a .220 ISO on his slider, and a .571 ISO on his changeup this season. Again, we are dealing with a relatively small sample size, but it is what we have to work with and we should attack it until he proves us otherwise.

Suarez has been lights out to left-handed hitters this season, so the focus is going to be on the right-handed hitters here, and that starts with George Springer. Springer has posted a .273 ISO and .411 wOBA against LHP dating back to last season, numbers by themselves that would make us want to play him, but he profiles as a pretty good option against Suarez's fastball, as he has posted a massive .395 ISO and .477 wOBA against the pitch. He has a 79.92% contact rate against the pitch, which leaves a little to be desired, but he is still a great option here. After Springer, Alex Bregman (.237 ISO, .385 wOBA, 12.9% K-rate) stands out as an excellent option as he has posted a .301 ISO and .455 wOBA against 92 MPH four-seam fastballs, along with a solid 85.86% contact rate, and is one of the few Astros bats with a contact rate over 70% against sliders. Carlos Correa (.192 ISO, .408 wOBA, 14.9% K-rate) is also a great option against Suarez tonight, as he has posted a .454 ISO and .497 wOBA against his fastball. Jose Altuve (.187 ISO, .378 wOBA, 13.7% K-rate) profiles extremely well against Suarez's changeup, posting a .248 ISO and 78.15% contact rate against the pitch, and his fastball with a .296 ISO and 91.49% contact rate. It would be great if Max Stassi (.297 ISO, .466 wOBA, 15% K-rate) got in the lineup but don't overlook Evan Gattis (.218 ISO, .309 wOBA, 16.9% K-rate) if he is behind the dish. I prefer Marwin Gonzalez (.155 ISO, .300 wOBA, 21.7% K-rate) against RHP but he has posted a solid .352 wOBA and 91.36% contact rate against Suarez's fastball. Keep an eye out for Jake Marisnick (.193 ISO, .297 wOBA) as well, as he could be a good value OF option.

The Matt Koch regression train has reached the station and it came in really damn fast. Koch has struggled in back-to-back outings, culminating in an eight earned run allowed performance against the Brewers just a few days ago. That shellacking was somewhat predictable, as Koch continued to allow both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters to hit him really hard, and I am all aboard the train against him once again tonight. The Brewers may end up being popular here, because they just shelled him a few days ago, but that's fine with me. Koch has four pitches that he throws, a 91-92 MPH four-seam fastball, a cut fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. His fastballs are what have been an issue for him, as opponents are posting a .400 ISO on his four-seam fastball and a .350 ISO off his cut fastball, so picking hitters that excel against those two pitches is where we should start. I would definitely prefer some of the right-handed hitters here, as he is allowing a .416 wOBA to the handedness, but with the amount of power and hard contact he is allowing to left-handed hitters, they make good targets too.

Lorenzo Cain (.119 ISO, .336 wOBA, 17.2% K-rate) isn't a guy we usually target for power but he is the teams lead-off man and has posted a .259 ISO and 81% contact rate against 91-92 MPH four-seam fastballs and a .328 wOBA against cutters. After Cain, Christian Yelich (.169 ISO, .359 wOBA, 20.0% K-rate) is another low-power bat that has actually shown off a .281 ISO and 42.68% HCR against those fastballs, and Jesus Aguilar (.220 ISO, .336 wOBA, 28.7% K-rate) owns a .273 ISO against the pitch dating back to 2016. From the cleanup spot, Travis Shaw (.268 ISO, .377 wOBA, 20.5% K-rate) is a great power threat that owns a .422 ISO against Koch's four-seam fastball, while Ji-Man Choi (.571 ISO, .511 wOBA, 23.5% K-rate) has shown off some power against the pitch, as well, with a .800 ISO. Before you see Choi's numbers and go all in on him, just be forewarned that he only has about 20 at-bats against RHP dating back to last season and that .800 ISO comes on 10 BBEs. Jett Bandy (.111 ISO, .245 wOBA, 29.1% K-rate) hasn't put up great numbers against RHP but he does own a .303 ISO against Koch's fastball. Tyler Saladino (.087 ISO, .223 wOBA, 26.4% K-rate) owns a .292 ISO against the pitch, as well. Don't overlook Domingo Santana, Hernan Perez, or Jonathan Villar here, either, although none of them are primary targets. If Manny Pina (.165 ISO, .314 wOBA, 20.1% K-rate) may be behind the dish as opposed to Bandy, and he is a good C option.

Ah, Matt Harvey Day! After the Dark Knight was exiled from New York to Cincinnati, he came out and put up a solid performance against the Dodgers, leading everyone to wonder if he had made some changes and was actually serviceable again. But alas, Harvey came out and allowed three earned runs in four innings against the Giants, and proved that he was still a pitcher we can pick on. Dating back to last season, Harvey has been absolutely putrid against left-handed hitters, allowing a ,massive 39.4% HCR and a .418 wOBA. That could be problematic for him tonight, especially in a hitter friendly park, as the Pirates have a heap of left-handed hitters they can fill their lineup with. Harvey's entire pitch arsenal this season has been a problem for him, as he is allowing a .467 ISO on his 93 MPH four-seam fastball, a .333 ISO on his changeup, a .500 ISO on his two-seam fastball, and a .250 ISO on his curveball. The only pitch that hasn't been blasted has been his slider, as he has not allowed a hit to e left-handed hitter on his slider this season, but he is only throwing it to them 18% of the time.

Adam Frazier (.133 ISO, .314 wOBA, 12.4% K-rate) is a good value bat if he makes the lineup, but I will be targeting more of the power options here tonight. That starts with Gregory Polanco (.182 ISO, .314 wOBA, 14.9% K-rate) who has posted a .218 ISO and .341 wOBA against Harvey's fastball and a massive .302 ISO on changeups. Corey Dickerson (.218 ISO, .341 wOBA, 20.2% K-rate) has posted a .370 ISO against 93 MPH four-seam fastballs and a .198 ISO against changeups, while Colin Moran (.202 ISO, .378 wOBA, 15.3% K-rate) continues to post a solid 36.7% HCR this season and has shown off some good contact number against 93 MPH four-seam fastballs. Josh Bell (.193 ISO, .334 wOBA, 19.5%) will probably bat cleanup tonight and has posted a .258 ISO against 93 MPH four-seam fastballs and a .212 ISO against two-seam fastballs. Austin Meadows is a great low-cost value option that should be in the lineup as well, so don't overlook him in this spot either.