Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Atlanta Braves (4.8) Vs. Steven Matz (L)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.338 12.9% .095 14.1% 13.1% 22.9%

Vs. RHB

.353 37.5% .227 18.9% 6.6%

37.4%

Matz may have made it out of his last start unscathed, a six inning performance against the Brewers, but he has been pretty bad so far this season. He has allowed at least three runs in five of his outings this season, including four against the Diamondbacks, and he owns a near one run difference in his ERA and xFIP/SIERA and he owns a massive 5.25 deserved run average, suggesting a little bit more regression will come his way. That could definitely happen tonight as he faces off against the Atlanta Braves, one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. As a team, the Braves own a massive .361 wOBA and .194 ISO against southpaws this season, with a 130 wRC+ and 35% HCR, making them a fantastic offense to target. Matz has struggled against right-handed hitters, with his .353 wOBA and 37.4% HCR allowed, and a flyball rating that is overly concerning here. Matz is primarily a sinkerball pitcher, throwing the pitch about 43% of the time to right-handed hitters this season but the pitch isn't generating the groundballs that it should, as he is generating just 46% groundballs with the pitch, and opponents own a near 40% HCR and 327 foot average batted ball distance. Opponents have posted a .353 wOBA and .259 ISO on the pitch dating back to 2016, with his low-spin rate and average velocity likely being the culprit here. It will be important to target the hitters who own solid numbers against two-seam/sinkers to start things off here but given how bad the Mets bullpen is, as they are allowing a 4.01 ERA on the season, we can target hitters outside of those parameters, as well, in hopes that they punish the pen if Matz gets knocked out earlier.

The obvious place to start tonight will be Ozzie Albies who owns a .296 ISO and .448 wOBA split against LHP dating back to last season with an outstanding 10.9% strikeout rate and 83.6% contact rate. He absolutely mashes against sinkers, posting a .318 ISO, .487 wOBA, and a 86% contact rate against the pitch in his career. Beyond Albies, Kurt Suzuki (.345 ISO, .430 wOBA, 9.4% K-rate) could be behind the dish here, and owns a 91% contact rate against sinkers, but don't overlook Tyler Flowers (.136 ISO, .418 wOBA, 15.5% K-rate) if he is in the lineup. As I mentioned above, I prefer the right-handed hitters here, but Freddie Freeman (.263 ISO, .399 wOBA, 22.1% K-rate) is still a good option. He owns a .262 ISO and .439 wOBA against sinkers and could rake against Matz or the pen. Both Nick Markakis (.174 ISO, .383 wOBA, 15.1% K-rate) and Ender Inciarte are in play here, as well. The Braves have been rotating Johan Camargo (.232 ISO, .391 wOBA, 19.2% K-rate) and Charlie Culberson (.190 ISO, .278 wOBA, 18.2% K-rate) towards the bottom of the lineup while Dansby Swanson (.200 ISO, .292 wOBA, 23.8% K-rate) gets in at the bottom, as well. The bottom of the Braves lineup presents great value here.

Boston Red Sox (5.6) Vs. Marco Estrada (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.303

48.8%

.212

21.5%

7.2%

25.2%

Vs. RHB

.364

52.9%

.224

20.2%

9.4%

31.1%

The Red Sox are going to be an incredibly popular option tonight, and for good reason, but it is really tough to overlook them in this spot. They face off against a flyball right-handed pitcher in Estrada who has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his 10 outings this season. Twelve of those earned runs have come via the longball, a number that ranks him eighth in the Majors this season. His 89 MPH four-seam fastball is getting blasted by hitters on both sides of the plate, as left-handed hitters have posted a .367 ISO against it while right-handed hitters have posted a .397 ISO against it, and he is throwing the pitch over 50% of the time this season. Opponents have posted a .350 wOBA, .407 xwOBA, and .256 ISO against the pitch dating back to 2016, so this isn't a new trend for Estrada. His offspeed stuff has been blasted dating back to 2016, as well, as he has allowed a .320 wOBA and .208 ISO on his changeup. Estrada's batted ball numbers are terrible, as his average exit velocity is up over an MPH since last season and his 212-foot average batted ball distance is an alarming increase over his 196-foot average batted ball distance. The average launch angle on batted balls against Estrada's four-seam fastball is 32-35 degrees, which is ideal for homers, and the Red Sox can most certainly punish him here.

The best place to start will be Mookie Betts, if he is in the lineup, as he has been on fire this season and owns a .224 ISO and .356 wOBA against right-handed hitters dating back to last season, but he experienced side tightness over the weekend and could miss some time. Betts owns a .367 wOBA and .143 ISO against Estrada's four-seam fastball with a 37% HCR and 94% contact rate. J.D. Martinez (.348 ISO, .403 wOBA, 26.2% K-rate) is a great option, as well, and has been on fire this month. He owns a 184 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .710 SLG this month with 28 hits, five doubles, 11 homers, and 20 RBIs. He posted a massive .750 ISO against Estrada's four-seam fastball last season. Andrew Benintendi (.186 ISO, .349 wOBA, 16.1% K-rate) is another great option that owns a .200 ISO and 36% HCR against Estrada's four-seam fastball dating back to 2016, followed by Xander Bogaerts who has posted a massive .278 ISO and .368 wOBA against RHP this season. Bogaerts owns a .199 ISO and .372 wOBA against that terrible four-seam fastball. Mitch Moreland (.231 ISO, .345 wOBA, 19.7% K-rate) has a clear path to playing time with HanRam gone and has posted a .176 ISO and .304 wOBA against the four-seam fastball, and while those numbers aren't great, he has posted a 52% HCR against it. Rafael Devers (.195 ISO, .308 ISO, 23.4% K-rate) has completely raked against four-seam fastballs with a .600 ISO against it, although he has only 4 batted ball events in his log. Don't overlook Blake Swihart and Sandy Leon if they get behind the dist, with Leon being the preferred option as he owns a 50% HCR against that four-seam fastball.

Seattle Mariners (4.8) Vs. Austin Bibens-Dirx (R)

SP Splits (2017-2018)

wOBA Allowed

FB%

ISO

K%

BB%

Hard% Allowed

Vs. LHB

.345

38.4%

.191

8.2%

8.2%

32.1%

Vs. RHB

.332

37.8%

.195

17.2%

17.2%

43.0%

Bibens-Dirx's 2018 debut didn't turn out the way he or the Rangers had hoped it would, as he allowed six runs (four earned) on eight hits in 6.1 innings. That set his ERA to kick things off at a whopping 5.68 which isn't that far off from his 2017 ERA of 4.67. While his 3.18 xFIP from his debut suggests he wasn't as bad as he looked, he owned a 5.42 xFIP in 69.1 innings last season. He isn't a strikeout guy, as he posted a 12.7% strikeout rate last season, and he struggles with hard contact allowed, especially to right-handed hitters. He is basically a four-seam pitcher, throwing the pitch 37% of the time while mixing in a slider 29.4% of the time, a changeup, a sinker, and curveball. He has allowed a .318 ISO on his four-seam fastball and a .231 ISO on his slider, making those the pitches we should focus on when looking at hitters to target in this matchup. That definitely starts with Nelson Cruz who owns a .259 ISO and .373 wOBA against right-handed pitching dating back to last season. Cruz has posted a .475 ISO against Bibens-Dirx's four-seam fastball, and a .209 ISO against sliders, which makes him one of the best options from this game. Mitch Haniger (.230 ISO, .368 wOBA, 23.5% K-rate) owns a massive .304 ISO against sliders and a .357 wOBA against 91 MPH four-seam fastballs, while Kyle Seager (.201 ISO, .315 wOBA, 16.6% K-rate) owns a .288 ISO against those four-seam fastballs. Ryon Healy owns a .196 ISO and .481 xwOBA against RHP this season, and a .317 ISO against four-seam fastballs, while Mike Zunino (.251 ISO, .343 wOBA) owns a .362 ISO against the pitch. Don't forget about Guillermo Heredia, Denard Span, and Gordon Beckham as value bats here.



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