MLB Stacking To Win It: 6-19-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

The Indians come into tonight's slate with the highest projected team total, outside of Coors, as they take on the left-handed Carlos Rodon at home. Rodon recently came off the DL and has pitched a total of 10 innings in two outings, allowing three homers and four earned runs in those innings, and has struck out 11 batters. While those numbers aren't completely terrible, he is still coming in as a guy that has struggled with a lot of power allowed to right-handed hitters, as evidenced by his .210 ISO allowed. 26 of his 32 homers allowed last season came against right-handed hitters and he allowed those 32 homers in just 69 innings pitched last season. Cleveland is a terrible matchup for Rodon as he relies heavily on hist 93 MPH four-seam fastball, throwing it over 44% of the time, and the Indians have a lot of hitters with success against that pitch. They have a lot of power against southpaws in general, posting a .174 team ISO against them this season, and their 38.5% team hard contact rating will play extremely well in the hitter friendly confines of Progressive Field. Francisco Lindor (.216 ISO, .388 wOBA) is a great place to start as he owns a .161 ISO and 35% HCR against Rodon's four-seam fastball. Rodon locates almost 11% of his pitches down and away, painting the bottom corner of the zone, where Lindor owns a massive .495 wOBA dating back to last season, so he should feast in this spot. After Lindor, Jose Ramirez (.241 ISO, .383 wOBA) is another great option that owns a .196 ISO and .341 wOBA against the fastball range. He has a 91% contact rate against the pitch, as well, and a .398 wOBA against pitches in the bottom-away corner of the zone. Michael Brantley (.111 ISO, .311 wOBA) isn't a huge threat against southpaws but Rodon has really struggled against lefties this season and Brantley owns a massive 96.64% contact rate against Rodon's fastball. Edwin Encarnacion (.193 ISO, .346 wOBA) is a good power threat here, despite posting just a .184 ISO against Rodon's fastball, while Yonder Alonso (.232 ISO, .296 wOBA) is someone that can be used as a pivot of E5 even against a southpaw. Yan Gomes (.256 ISO, .377 wOBA) is a great option behind the dish and we will likely get Greg Allen (.129 ISO, .328 wOBA) or Brandon Guyer (.154 ISO, .324 wOBA) in the lineup as platoon options.

Jason Hammel inexplicably escaped his last meeting with the Texas Rangers without giving up a run but I am not counting on that happening once again tonight. Hammel continues to be a guy that we can count on to give up runs, as he ranks 7th in the Majors in runs allowed among qualified pitchers, and he is a guy that I will pick on every single night he takes the mound. He will be back at home tonight, which is a park downgrade for bats, but it is going to be extremely hot, somewhat humid, and the wind is projected to be blowing out about 10 MPH tonight. The Rangers actually have one of the highest non-Coors totals on the night at 5.0 runs and I expect that they will be overlooked in this spot. Hammel has a terrible 4.73 ERA this season, along with a 14.9% strikeout rate, and has struggled with hard contact to hitters on both sides of the plate. He is much worse against right-handed hitters, allowing a .351 wOBA this season, making Elvis Andrus (.164 ISO, .340 wOBA) and Adrian Beltre (.187 ISO, .361 wOBA) both interesting options here. Andrus posted a massive .320 ISO against Hammel's primary pitch, a 91 MPH four-seam fastball, last season and was also a solid bat against curveballs, while Beltre owns a .376 wOBA and 41.43% hard contact rating against the pitch dating back to 2016. Robinson Chirinos (.210 ISO, .321 wOBA) is a fine option at the catcher position, and owns a .278 ISO/.377 wOBA against Hammel's fastball, while Delino DeShields (.069 ISO, .289 wOBA) owns a .387 wOBA against it. We can still target the left-handed hitters here, as flyballs to lefties have plagued Hammel, with Nomar Mazara (.194 ISO, .339 wOBA) and Shin-Soo Choo (.198 ISO, .355 wOBA) being the top two options from that side of the plate. Choo has been on fire the last two weeks, posting a .461 wOBA and .267 ISO over that span, and both have great numbers against Hammel's four-seam fastball. Choo owns a .247 ISO and .383 wOBA against it, while Mazara owns a .186 ISO and .346 wOBA against it. Don't overlook Joey Gallo (.321 ISO, .359 wOBA) and Ronald Guzman (.189 ISO, .305 wOBA) here, either, with Guzman being an interesting value bat that owns a .250 ISO and .433 wOBA against Hammel's fastball.

We have a pretty limited sample size of Felix Pena in the Majors, just 37 innings dating back to last season, with some rather interesting results. He is a pretty good strikeout arm, posting strikeout rates in the mid-20% and low-30% across the Majors and multiple levels of the Minors, but he has also struggled with walks, a high WHIP, and some pretty high flyball rates in his journey from Single-A that started in 2009 to today. He has spent his entire career in the Cubs organization, until this season, and spent some time in the Majors for them last season where he posted a 5.24 ERA in 34.1 innings and allowed 2.10 HR/9 with a 1.54 WHIP, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 51.0% flyball rate. His pitch mix is just three pitches, a 94 MPH four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He throws the fastball about 65% of the time and it is getting obliterated as he has allowed a .472 wOBA, .340 ISO, and 43% hard contact rating on the pitch dating back to last season. His slider, which he throws about 28% of the time, gets a massive 47.44% WHIFF rate while his changeup gets a 37% WHIFF rate. In 2.2 innings this year, he has relied on his slider a little bit more, but we don't really know if that is a change for him or just due to the small sample size. This isn't a great matchup for Pena tonight as he faces off against a hot Diamondbacks offense and I will be looking to target him here. Three of the top-30 hitters in baseball over the past 14 days come from the Arizona side of this game, with Paul Goldschmidt coming in at number one with a massive .635 wOBA and 313 wRC+ over that span, and four of the top-20 hitters in hard contact over that same span are from Arizona. Goldy comes in at number two on that leaderboard with a 69.2% HCR over the past 14 days with Nick Ahmed (57.1%), David Peralta (56.1%), and Daniel Descalso (54.2%) all smoking the cover off the ball of late. Jon Jay (.103 ISO, .335 wOBA) is a fine place to start in the leadoff spot and has been heating up of late, while the aforementioned Paul Goldschmidt (.239 ISO, .380 wOBA) is a great option that owns a .418 wOBA and .284 ISO against Pena's four-seam fastball. Jake Lamb (.251 ISO, .373 wOBA) still is not hitting that well this season but does own a .293 ISO against Pena's four-seam fastball, while David Peralta (.192 ISO, .365 wOBA) owns a .341 wOBA and .197 ISO against it. Daniel Descalso (.207 ISO, .360 wOBA) is a decent midrange option that owns a 36% HCR against the fastball range we are looking at, while Alex Avila (.174 ISO, .338 wOBA) has actually posted a pretty solid .431 wOBA and .255 ISO against it. Don't forget about Nick Ahmed as he has been smoking the ball lately, while Ketel Marte is still a great contact hitter.