MLB Stacking To Win It: 7-24-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

The past three starts have not been kind to Minor, as he has allowed 10 earned runs across 14 innings, and things likely won't get much better for him as he faces off against the Oakland Athletics tonight. While the Athletics only rank 19th in the Majors against LHP this season, posting a .164 team ISO and .306 team wOBA, I still think they are one of the top teams to target on the slate tonight. Vegas has them projected at a massive 5.7 runs tonight, so they believe in them as well, and with the temperatures projected at about 100 degrees, hitters will see a very large boost in this spot. Minor's overall numbers dating back to last season don't look terrible, although he has allowed a massive 46.2% fly ball rate and 36.2% hard contact rate, but 2018 has been even worse for Minor as he is allowing a 47.1% fly ball rate and 43.3% hard contact rate to hitters on the right-side of the plate. Those fly balls and hard contact will lead to runs in the scorching Texas heat, especially when they are happening against a team that owns a 40% hard contact rating against southpaws, and the right-handed hitters are the ones I am most interested in here. That starts with Chad Pinder (.204 ISO, .372 wOBA) who generally bats in the two-hole against southpaws. Pinder has struggled at time to make contact against 93 MPH four-seam fastballs, a pitch that Minor throws nearly 50% of the time, with just a 70% contact rate but he owns a .313 wOBA and 46% hard contact rating against the pitch. Marcus Semien (.161 ISO, .307 wOBA) is projected to bat lead-off tonight and owns a .202 ISO and .392 wOBA against Minor's four-seam fastball, while Jed Lowrie (.132 ISO, .324 wOBA) owns a .332 wOBA against it. Khris Davis (.218 ISO, .322 wOBA) has struggled to produce at times against southpaws this season but is still worth taking because of his .458 wOBA and .459 ISO against Minor's fastball and, of course, Stephen Piscotty (.160 ISO, .293 wOBA) is a home run threat here with his .422 ISO and .479 wOBA against the pitch. Piscotty shares the same issues against southpaws this season as Davis does, but both have excellent expected stats and hard contact numbers against them. Mark Canha (.372 ISO, .416 wOBA) is a great option despite batting towards the bottom of the order and Matt Chapman (.172 ISO, .351 wOBA) is a solid option, as well.

Anytime you can stack against a guy whose name is Homer, you have to do it right? Well the Cardinals are facing off against Homer Bailey tonight and I will definitely be getting some exposure to them in this spot. They get a massive park boost heading to Cincinnati and that will play into my interest in them. Bailey's numbers dating back to last season look solid, although right-handed bats have given him fits, but his 2018 numbers tell an entirely different story. He has a putrid 12.7% strikeout rate this season, has allowed a .271 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .231 ISO to right-handed hitters, and he is giving up a massive 45.4% fly ball rate overall. He has surrendered 15 homers in 12 games and a massive 46 earned runs across those innings. The Cardinals offense is far from imposing against right-handed pitchers, as they own a .155 team ISO and .315 team wOBA against them, but they have been a top-10 team over the past two weeks with a .177 ISO and .341 team wOBA over that span. Part of that is due to Matt Carpenter (.281 ISO, .393 wOBA) and his .824 ISO, .703 wOBA, and .355 wRC+ over that span, but Tommy Pham (.173 ISO, .330 wOBA) has also been on fire with a .144 wRC+ and .385 wOBA over that same span. Pham also excels against Bailey's four-seam fastball, a pitch he is allowing a .204 ISO and .422 wOBA with to right-handed hitters, with a .282 ISO and .509 wOBA againt the pitch. Yadier Molina (.207 ISO, .357 wOBA) has been great over the past two weeks, as well, with a .343 wOBA, and he owns a .432 wOBA and .316 ISO against Bailey's fastball. Paul DeJong (.180 ISO, .354 wOBA) excels against Bailey's fastball, as well, with a .490 ISO and .499 wOBA and is projected to bat third tonight. You can target Dexter Fowler (.129 ISO, .261 wOBA) or Marcel Ozuna (.109 ISO, .297 wOBA) although I would be more inclined to roll out Jose Martinez (.198 ISO, .374 wOBA) over them as he owns a .273 ISO and .491 wOBA against Bailey's fastball.

While Shane Bieber has been a serviceable back-end starter for the Indians this season, he is still struggling with left-handed hitters and has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts. The Indians are at home tonight, with Progressive being a very hitter friendly environment, and his issues against left-handed hitters could be problematic when facing off several left-handed hitters that have been scorching hot of late. He is allowing a .411 wOBA and .235 ISO to the handedness, along with a 43.2% fly ball rate and 51.4% hard contact rate, with most of that damage coming against his four-seam fastball. He is throwing the pitch almost 60% of the time to left-handed hitters and is allowing a .288 ISO and .479 wOBA on it. He will be facing off against Corey Dickerson (.215 ISO, .366 wOBA) who has posted a .512 ISO and .525 wOBA over the past 14 days and Josh Bell (.131 ISO, .320 wOBA) who has posted a .147 ISO and .484 wOBA over the same time frame. Dickerson has posted a massive .311 ISO and .383 wOBA against Beiber's four-seam fastball, along with a 47% hard contact rating, while Josh Bell has posted a .415 wOBA and .243 ISO against the pitch. Gregory Polanco (.268 ISO, .353 wOBA) has also been on fire over the past two weeks, posting a .450 ISO and .423 wOBA over that span, and has raked against Beiber's four-seam fastball with a .346 wOBA and .236 ISO against it dating back to 2016. Colin Moran (.153 ISO, .335 wOBA) is a fine option at the hot corner, as he owns a .408 wOBA against Bieber's four-seam fastball, while Max Moroff (.088 ISO, .225 wOBA) and Austin Meadows (.122 ISO, .308 wOBA) can be rolled out if they make the lineup.