MLB Stacking To Win It: 7-26-17

Stacking has become a prime way to take down big tournaments, as well as giving your cash game team a solid floor. We focus on opposing pitcher stats, Vegas, weather, park factors, team stats, salaries, and player stats when deciding the top three stacks of the night. I know. Shocker we look at those things. If there is a Coors game on the slate, we will mostly divert our attention elsewhere, as Coors games are the obvious stacks of the night. It doesn't need much breaking down. Be sure to check out or revamped Stack Generator and Stack features inside our Lineup Optimizer and Tools.

This game is on ESPN tonight, so get something to eat, set up a Cubs stack, and watch James Shields implode. If the Cubs fail to score more than five runs off Shields, they should be disqualified from the playoffs. I think that is a fair proposal to the MLB from my end. Shields has allowed 6, 4, 6, 2, and 6 earned runs over his last five starts, and has allowed eight home runs in that span. His ERA is over five and his xFIP is over six. The 36.4% groundball rate in this park against a team with a ton of power is just a recipe for disaster. Shields has really been awful against lefties, allowing a .442 wOBA this season, with a 22.5% HR/FB. Looking at right-handers, he is allowing a ton of hard-contact (38%). This lineup is primed for a big outing one through five. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, and Willson Contreras all have over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and Ben Zobrist is starting to come around. Chicago will be the highest owned stack of the night, but for good reason. Making interesting one-off moves on the hill or at other positions is where you can separate yourself from the field.

The Texas stack has been dreadful since the all-star break, but I am willing to roll the dice on them here against Jose Urena who is due for some regression. Urena is only allowing a .322 wOBA on the season, but has a 5.74 FIP and 6.82 xFIP. His 32.9% groundball rate and 11.2% strikeout rate against lefties are not going to cut it either. Against right-handers the FIP and xFIP sit in the mid-four range, and the strikeout rate is still below 20%. With a 3.78 ERA and those types of peripheral numbers, I will stack against Urena a lot moving forward. Texas is a much better offense at home, ranking fifth in runs per game (5.4). On the road that drops to 4.3. Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara have a casual wOBA against right-handers, sitting around .330 and an ISO around .185. Elvis Andrus has been good this season, with a .348 wOBA and .174 ISO. He was always someone I knocked for upside, but has proved me wrong this year. Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre are the big HR threats here, with over a .200 ISO against right-handers this season. I also don't mind using Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, or Carlos Gomez as well.

Marco Estrada continues to struggle and has six straight starts with an xFIP over six. He has had some tough opponents, but his low 32% groundball rate still gives plenty of potential to a free-swinging power team like Oakland. Estrada has an 8.49 ERA over his last ten starts, with a 5.80 FIP and 5.77 xFIP. His walk rate is up to 13.3% in that span, and he has allowed a 34% hard-contact rate. Oakland has some solid power, but are that boom-or-bust offense. They get a positive park shift going into the Rogers Centre, and also the advantage of all nine innings at-bat. Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso, Khris Davis have ISOs over .200 against right-handers this season, and are all on the cheaper side outside of Davis. Jed Lowrie and Ryon Healy both have a .190 ISO against right-handers and a dirt cheap. Oakland's offense isn't for the faint of heart, but can easily take down a tournament with their low ownership and upside. Remember, this team has the second highest ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and are 11th in hard-contact. The 25% strikeout rate is the only downside here.