MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-11-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

The Dodgers offense continues to be a tough one to trust, and while he isn't Chris Tillman or Dylan Bundy, he is Matt Harvey and could jumpstart your offense when you are stranded on the highway with a dead battery. Harvey has mainly struggled against left-handed bats, but by all means I will be looking at the right-handers here as well. Harvey is throwing a fastball and sinker about 55% of the time, both are getting pounded for over a .400 wOBA and 40% hard-contact rate. His slider is decent, but has a .360 xwOBA off of. A lot of these Dodgers bats hit sinkers and Harvey's fastball range of 93 mph. Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger, and Yasmani Grandal all have over .200 ISO against the fastball with hard-contact rates over 35%. If Austin Barnes is behind the dish, he has a .438 wOBA and .267 ISO. Sinkers these guys all mash as well, Chris Taylor is in play with a .366 wOBA and .182 ISO off the pitch. Joc Pederson has a .419 wOBA and .270 ISO off sinkers dating back to 2016, and has an 86% contact rate. Kemp, Grandal, and Bellinger are all over a .200 ISO against the sinker. The Dodgers should be able to get to his fastball and sinker and dodge his slider. If you are sick of the Dodgers I get it, but I am willing to give one more shot here against Harvey.

I am not a huge believe in Steven Matz, who has been getting somewhat lucky here in 2018. He is holding right-handers to a .321 wOBA to start the season, but has an xwOBA of .363. Matz is someone who gives up a lot of home runs and extra base hits to right-handed bats, allowing a .247 ISO this season, but is also someone who can miss bats as well. The Phillies are a boom or bust stack tonight, but there is a lot to like about Philly tonight. Matz's fastball has some major regression coming, allowing a 47% hard-contact rate and .531 xwOBA this season. Given hitters have just a .258 wOBA and .158 ISO, I am willing to bet on those numbers going up. His sinker is getting blasted for a .362 wOBA and .317 ISO this season, while his changeup is as well, allowing a .390 wOBA and .235 ISO. He has three pitches allowing over a 39% hard-contact rate this season. His best pitch is the curveball, which is generating a .200 wOBA and .050 ISO off of this season. There are a lot of bats that hit sinkers well, which Matz's is throwing 38% of the time this season. Rhys Hoskins stands out with a .536 wOBA and .500 ISO off the pitch in his career. Carlos Santana has a .382 wOBA and .226 ISO off the pitch, while even guys like Scott Kingery and Jorge Alfaro post over a .350 wOBA off the pitch. Even though it will be lefty on lefty, Odubel Herrera has a .395 wOBA off sinkers dating back to 2016. Moving to Matz's secondary pitch, the curveball, Santana, Aaron Altherr, and Kingery all have over a .350 wOBA off the pitch. Altherr didn't standout against sinkers, but the 40% hard-contact rate against curves stood out. He also hits lefties well overall, with a .282 ISO and .359 wOBA dating back to last season. Cesar Hernandez is always a solid bet in cash games but jumpstarts this Phillies offense, and has a .362 wOBA off southpaws dating back to last season. You can take a flyer on Maikel Franco as well here, who boasts a .190 ISO off lefties. He has an 80% contact rate against lefties this season, and a .258 ISO. The Phillies bats will go very overlooked on a 14-game slate tonight, and are my contrarian tournament stack. The Yankees and Dodgers will come in much higher owned, but also have a higher floor.

Oh Kendall Graveman in Yankee Stadium after he was demoted to Triple-A? This should go well. This season alone has been much worse for Graveman. He is allowing a .226 ISO to both sides of the plate. Right-handed bats have a .372 wOBA and lefties have a .427 wOBA. Graveman throws a sinker 55% of the time, which is getting crushed this season for a .377 wOBA and .205 ISO. His cutter is also getting hit hard for a .671 wOBA and .625 ISO. As you could have probably guessed, the Yankees bats mash sinkers. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both have a .300+ ISO off the pitch, and over an 80% contact rate. Gary Sanchez has a .367 wOBA and .248 ISO against the pitch, and is one of the top catching options on the slate. Didi Gregorius has cooled off but this is a spot for him to get back on track. He has a .378 ISO and .415 wOBA off right-handers this season, and 46.2% of his batted ball events are over 95 mph so far this season off right-handers. If you want to avoid the higher owned bats, the back half of the lineup is a good stack to target and be contrarian. Miguel Andujar has a small sample size, but a .381 wOBA off sinkers is intriguing. Gleybar Torres has a .463 wOBA and .286 ISO in his small major league sample size. Neil Walker has a .402 wOBA and .233 ISO off sinkers if he finds the lineup, and even Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks are in play.