MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-14-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Cleveland is the chalk stack of the night, and I am okay with eating it. You can find some low owned one offs or making a pivot on the mound to be contrarian that way. Mike Fiers has allowed a .396 wOBA and .310 ISO to lefties alone in 2018, and a 35.4% hard-contact rate. Fiers is a low velocity fastball guy, averaging about 86-87 mph. Not a lot of guys throw that low in the majors, so sample sizes are small but notable. Francisco Lindor has a .347 wOBA and .316 ISO off that range of fastball. Jose Ramirez has a .652 wOBA and .583 ISO. Edwin Encarnacion has a 1.072 wOBA and 1.444 ISO. Guys like Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis have over a .300 ISO. Fiers is throwing his changeup 24% of the time, which there are some standouts here as well. Lindor has a .352 wOBA and .197 ISO off the pitch. Michael Brantley has a .385 wOBA and 44% hard-contact rate. Ramirez and Encarnacion both have over a .200 ISO off changeups. Fiers changeup is getting crushed this season for a .474 wOBA and .345 ISO, and his fastball is getting extremely lucky so far with a .438 xwOBA but only a .290 wOBA. With the changeup and subpar fastball being thrown over 50% of the time combined this season, Cleveland should have a field day. Vegas has Cleveland with the highest implied total on the night, and some may think Detroit is a neutral park, but over the last five years it is on par with Baltimore, New York, and Toronto. Some other notable hitters parks. It is also slightly above average for lefty power, which is notable with all the lefty bats in that lineup.

I went back and forth on both Minnesota and Seattle for this stack, and settled on Seattle. I will say the right-handed bats and Eddie Rosario are a viable stack tonight against Wade LeBlanc. His fastball is over performing, and there are a number of bats that hit changeups well, which you can see in the cheat sheets. Seattle has a bit more of a threat here against Jake Odorizzi, who is a massive flyball pitcher. This season he has started to allow lefties to get in on the action, while in prior years he has been teed off on by right-handers. He is allowing over a 50% flyball rate to both sides of the plate this year, but lefties have a monster .310 ISO. Right-handers has a .174 ISO and 32% hard-contact rate, so both sides are in play here. Odorizzi continues to lean on his fastball a bit, which is a low 90s fastball. It is getting hit for a .343 wOBA, .211 ISO and 39% hard-contact rate. His splitter and slider are the most used off speed stuff, which a few of these bats grade out well against. Against splitters, Jean Segura has a .449 wOBA and .240 ISO against. Mike Zunino has a .355 wOBA and .333 ISO. Against sliders, Mitch Haniger has a .392 wOBA and .295 ISO. Segura and Dee Gordon both have contact rates over 70%. Against the low 90s fastball, you have all these guys mashing for over a .350 wOBA. Hell Gordon has a .353 ISO off the pitch. Even without Robinson Cano, Haniger is hitting third in the order. Nelson Cruz is fairly cheap around the industry, and has a .273 ISO and .385 wOBA off right-hander dating back to last season. Guys like Zunino, Ryon Healy, and Ben Gamel will be lower owned options if you want to include them in your stacks.

Arizona should go overlooked tonight, especially because their offense hasn't been that great this season, despite them leading the NL West at the moment. Junior Guerra just sort of gets by, with a 5.03 xFIP and .248 BABIP dating back to last season. He is allowing a 34.4% hard-contact rate in that span, and a 42% flyball rate. These are not numbers that represent success. Dating back to last season he is allowing over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate, but the hard-contact comes mainly to right-handers (37.6%). Guerra has a below average fastball, with a .355 wOBA and 43% hard-contact rate off of it this season. His slider and splitter generate over a 30% whiff rate, but hie doesn't throw enough for me to be too concerned. Throwing his fastball and sinker 70% of the time, this is where the Diamondbacks could be a viable stack. Paul Goldschmidt has a .279 wOBA and .115 ISO this season off right-handed pitching, and his price has dropped off. Goldy is definitely in a slump with a 32% strikeout rate this season and 32% hard-contact rate. Goldy has a .457 wOBA and .295 ISO off sinkers and a .561 wOBA and .529 ISO off the fastball range. A.J. Pollock who has been the complete opposite of Goldschmidt this season, has a .381 wOBA and .235 ISO in the fastball range and a .363 wOBA and .186 ISO off sinkers. Daniel Descalso should find his way into the lineup and has a .405 wOBA and .226 ISO off sinkers dating back to last season. The fastball range he also has a .196 ISO. David Peralta has been excellent this season, and is a guy in the past I didn't target too much because of the high groundball rate. He has a .200 ISO off the fastball range and .191 ISO off sinkers. He has a 53% hard-contact rate against right-handers, and his groundball rate is just 43%. Love him leading off tonight.