MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-28-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Brent Suter has done well limiting damage of late, and these two-four earned runs games seem to be ones that could spiral out of control at any moment. He has allowed two home runs in three of the last four games. His 1.83 HR/9 to right-handers this season is something to note for a lot of these Cardinals bats that have some pop against left-handed pitching. Suter also has allowed a 1.98 HR/9 at home this season compared to 1.04 on the road. The overall hard-contact goes up to 40% in Miller Park, where we are today. Suter throws a low velocity fastball, and mixes in a slider/changeup but throws it less than 20% of the time. Suter throws so slow that there isn't even any batted ball events of sample size with these Cardinals bats. These guys do eat fastballs quite well. Tommy Pham has a .426 wOBA and .245 ISO off them, while Jose Martinez has a .449 wOBA and .257 ISO. Both of them are at the top of my rankings today, and even if you are not fully stacking Cardinals they are guys I want exposure to. Marcell Ozuna hasn't done much this season, but has a .403 wOBA and .225 ISO off fastballs dating back to 2016. Ozuna is dirt cheap and in a pretty good spot. Jedd Gyorko is one of the better values on the early slate with a .425 wOBA and .303 ISO off southpaws dating back to last season. Harrison Bader should find his way into the lineup today, and if he doesn't fire Mike Matheny. Bader has a .356 ISO, .449 wOBA and 50% hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. You might see Carson Kelly behind the dish or Yairo Munoz at shortstop today, who are two punt options at those positions.

Washington's front five or six hitters really standout here against Alex Cobb, who has been god awful in 2018. Not that he has been good in prior seasons, but 2018 has been a whole new level of bad. He is allowing a .493 wOBA, .297 ISO, and 38.5% hard-contact rate to left-handers this season, which opens the door for a few of their bats. Bryce Harper of course is going to be in play, and boasts a .248 ISO off Cobb's curveball and a .400 ISO off his fastball range. No shocker there. Matt Adams has a .324 ISO off his fastball range as well, and a .278 ISO against the curveball dating back to 2016. Juan Soto hasn't had much sample size off any pitches that we can track just yet, but is a talented prospect from the left side of the plate that can get to Cobb. The right-handers pitches are getting crushed this season, especially the off-speed stuff. Cobb's splitter has been up and down this season, but is getting tagged for a .326 ISO, .435 wOBA, and 38% hard-contact rate. His curveball has a .634 wOBA and .439 ISO off it, while the hard-contact rate is over 50%. Cobb isn't getting a lot of swing and misses with his pitches, each have a whiff rate under 20% this season. Even the right-handers are in play here like Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon. Cobb is allowing a .391 wOBA, .240 ISO, and 36% hard-contact rate on the year. Rendon and Turner don't have a ton of strong numbers against the curveball, although Rendon has a .387 xwOBA off it dating back to 2016 with a 79% contact rate. Both have stellar numbers off the fastball range, Turner has a .384 wOBA and .323 ISO in that same 2016 time span. Rendon sits with a .392 wOBA and .274 ISO. Against splitters, there is never really a huge sample size, but Turner, Rendon, and Adams have over a .390 wOBA in double digit batted ball events. Washington gets a park upgrade here in Baltimore, where lefty power gets a major bump.

Cleveland is a fairly easy call for a stack today, and that means they should be popular. This game isn't included on the early only FanDuel slate, but is on DraftKings. If FanDuel puts out some afternoon slate, then stack away there, but ownership would be extremely high. Dylan Covey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and is someone to pick on each and every time he takes the hill. Covey allowed five or more earned runs in five of twelve starts last season, and while he shut down the Orioles, this is a completely different offense. Covey throws five pitches, and somehow none of them work. His fastball is getting hit for a .398 wOBA dating back to last season, while his sinker is getting tagged for a .345 wOBA and .207 ISO. His changeup has been hit for a .437 wOBA and .455 ISO in this same span while his curveball has been hit for a .466 wOBA and .469 ISO. The slider is a little bit better, but not by much, allowing a .330 wOBA and .194 ISO. Both sides of the plate are in play today, and this is a deep lineup where you can use a handful of options. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are both two higher priced options to use in this spot. Both own over a .230 ISO dating back to last season against right-handed pitching. The first base spots are a tough choice on DraftKings, but with a 40% hard-contact rate to right-handers I might lean on Edwin Encarnacion, who has a .365 wOBA and .255 ISO against right-handers dating back to last year. Yonder Alonso would come in at lower ownership, and is close to E5 with a .226 ISO and .361 wOBA off right-handers since last season. Melky Cabrera and Jason Kipnis are both cheaper exposure to this lineup, and while the power numbers haven't been there, have to like their odds against Covey. When healthy Michael Brantley has been excellent against right-handers, boasting a .369 wOBA and .196 ISO dating back to last season.

Late Slate Stacks:

With Coors on the four game slate, you can certainly start here. Starting on the Colorado side, they face a left-handed arm, who has allowed a .417 wOBA and .273 ISO to right-handers in a small sample size. He also has allowed a 50.7% hard-contact rate. Ian Desmond, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Chris Iannetta all standout with strong numbers against left-handed pitching dating back to last year. Even Charlie Blackmon has a .218 ISO and .395 wOBA off left-handers. On the other side of this one, Chad Bettis takes the mound and hasn't been too bad this season. The hard-contact is around 35.5% to both sides of the plate, however. I am looking at guys who hit the changeup well here, because Bettis is throwing it about 25% of the time. He also has a 90mph fastball that a few bats matchup well against. Buster Posey (If Healthy), Brandon Belt, and Evan Longoria matchup well with the changeup. Against that fastball, Brandon Crawford stands out with a .269 ISO, while Andrew McCutchen has a .487 wOBA and .250 ISO off it as well.

As far as outside of Coors goes, there isn't a lot of places to go for full stacks. If you want to be contrarian, the Dodgers left-handers are in tournament play against Vince Velasquez, who has allowed a .408 wOBA and .313 ISO against left-handers this season. This seems like a boom or bust matchup for the Dodgers, but I am not sure how many lefties they put into their lineups here. If they do, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, and Max Muncy would be the four that should get in there. Outside of Pederson, they all have over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Pederson sits at .160. On the other side of this one, Brock Stewart is expected to make another start, which is odd after Dave Roberts said he didn't deserve another one. There isn't much on Stewart in the majors, given he has pitched about only 70 innings. He has allowed a .326 wOBA to lefties, and a .334 wOBA to right-handers. He throws mainly a sinker and changeup, and there are a few that standout. Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, and Jorge Alfaro all standout against the sinker. Against changeups things drop a little bit, but Alfaro and Williams have over a .200 ISO against the pitch. It is an total GPP stack, and you can include Cesar Hernandez as well.

The run totals on both sides are fairly high here, hovering around 4.8 implied runs at the moment. If you are looking at attacking Jake Junis, it isn't the worst idea in the world given he could end up being sorta popular given his game logs for people to look at. He has allowed a .181 ISO to left-handers and a .202 ISO to righties this season. He allows a lot of flyballs to lefties, sitting at 47% and with a 34.1% hard-contact rate. There are lefties like Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison, and Max Kepler. All have power potential with Escobar and Rosario leading the group. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are two right-handed power threats, but struggle against sliders. This is a definite boom or bust stack here with Junis' slider usage. You can definitely target on the other side of this game with Lance Lynn taking the hill. We prefer the lefties here, so Mike Moustakas, Jon Jay, and Alex Gordon are in play. Salvador Perez is really the only right-hander I would want exposure to. You can make the case for Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifeld, but they haven't done much in the power department against right-handers.