MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-3-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

The Angels offense has severely dropped off, having a league low .256 wOBA over the last two weeks. They are also striking out at a 23.6% strikeout rate in that span. While I want to say a matchup against Chris Tillman should turn that around, I thought the one against Alex Cobb would be that. On a four game slate, the Angels will be a popular team, and that doesn't mean you should necessarily fade, unless you just want to use the Red Sox options instead. In 2018 alone, Tillman has allowed a .314 wOBA and .218 ISO to right-handers, but a .500 wOBA and .311 ISO to lefties. Unfortunately Los Angeles is heavily right-handed, and the only bats from the left side would be Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun. Ohtani has a .469 ISO and .531 wOBA off right-handers so far in his small major league career. Calhoun has been moved down to the eight spot, and for good reason. He only has a .198 wOBA and .068 ISO off right-handers. Tillman has an xwOBA of .377 to right-handers, so things should be more alongside what he was last year, which was bad.

Tillman throws his four-seam fastball 34% of the time against right-handers, and his slider 32% of the time. His fastball is getting hit for a .588 ISO and .532 wOBA so far this season. His slider is better, allowing a .317 wOBA and no ISO yet. Justin Upton and Mike Trout both hammer fastballs in the 89mph range. Upton has a .480 wOBA and 480 ISO. Trout has a .572 wOBA and .486 ISO. Even Albert Pujols is someone to consider here, with a .362 wOBA and .263 ISO. Ian Kinsler has a .194 ISO and .320 wOBA, but an xwOBA of .366. The slider numbers are not as appealing, although Trout and Upton have an xwOBA over .400. Zack Cozart and Andrelton Simmons are others so consider, and are more contact bats than power bats. Well, Cozart has a .205 ISO off right-handers this season, so he has some pop.

Mike Minor finally showed some vulnerability, allowing four earned to Toronto. He is not a bad arm, and was a former first rounder with a promising future before injuries derailed him. There are a few concerning notes to Minor's season so far. He is allowing a .355 wOBA to right-handers, which is already high, but there is an xwOBA of .389. Minor is also allowing a .244 ISO to right-handers, with an average EV of 91.4 mph, and an average distance of 211 feet. The 50% flyball rate and 42.6% hard-contact rate to right-handers is insanely high. Minor is mainly throwing a fastball, slider, changeup. His fastball and changeup are getting hammered for over a .300 ISO. To right-handed bats, he is throwing his fastball 35% of the time, and changeup 22% of the time. Minor's slider has just a .246 wOBA, but a .347 xwOBA. He also isn't getting many swinging strikes this season with it. This is a team with a dangerous lineup of right-handed bats and it is in a humid and warm environment.

Digging into the Sox numbers against Minor's pitches, they should mash tonight. Against changeups, there are a handful of bats that hit them well. Hanley Ramirez has a .407 wOBA and .235 ISO dating back to 2016, J.D. Martinez has a .463 xwOBA and .207 ISO. Mookie Betts is coming off a three home run game, and has a .359 wOBA and .172 ISO off changeups. All these bats mash fastballs in Minor's range. Everyone outside of the catchers and Rafael Devers have over a .380 wOBA off the fastball. I am not fond of using the lefties like Devers and Andre Benintendi here. Minor has held lefties to a .216 wOBA and .074 ISO dating back to last season with a 24% hard-contact rate. Xander Bogaerts is another bat that is in a prime spot. He has a .351 wOBA and .167 ISO off southpaws this season, but it probably should be better with a .399 xwOBA.

To dodge some of the more chalky bats, I am looking at Oakland tonight. On a four game slate they won't be missed, but will come in lower owned in comparison to Los Angeles and Boston. If the game in Chicago plays, I do like a contrarian White Sox stack against Jake Odorizzi, but it is looking very iffy so far with rain.

Wade LeBlanc's numbers against right-handers look good, but dating back to 2017, he has an xwOBA of .336 to right-handed bats. LeBlanc also has a -0.69 xSLG - SLG difference dating back to last season. Oakland isn't a given, and Safeco isn't a great park to stack, but on a four game or what might be a three game slate, we have little options for a contrarian stack. LeBlanc is throwing his changeup 35% of the time to right-handers, and a two seam fastball 26% of the time. His two-seam is getting crushed, with a .617 wOBA and .545 ISO so far this season. It also has an average exit velocity of 90.1mph.

Oakland bats that standout against changeups are guys like Matt Chapman, with a .362 wOBA and .282 ISO. Chad Pinder has a .346 wOBA and .243 ISO, Marcus Semien has a .267 ISO, and Khris Davis has a .261 ISO. Against the two-seam fastball in 2017, Chapman again stands out with a .657 wOBA and Stephen Piscotty has a .471 wOBA. There are a lot of bats here that underperformed against lefties dating back to last season. Semien is one, with a .321 wOBA, but .379 xwOBA. Jed Lowrie, who is 2018's stud 2B option so far, has a .336 wOBA off lefties dating back to last season, but a .421 xwOBA. Piscotty is in that boat, with a .363 xwOBA but .301 wOBA.