MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-4-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Alright, lets get somethings out of the way here first. Feel free to stack the Red Sox against Bartolo Colon, as well as the Yankees against Josh Tomlin. These are obvious top stacks tonight, and will be popular as well as expensive. I will take a look at a few lesser owned stacks tonight, starting with Atlanta against Chris Stratton. While Stratton's first blowup game came last game, his hard-contact and flyball rates suggest potential for more. Dating back to last year, Stratton's stuff looks fairly solid, outside of the walk rate to left-handers, but in 2018 the hard-contact and flyball rate is way up in a six start sample size. He is allowing a 44.7% hard-contact rate to right-handers, and a 40.4% hard-contact rate to lefties. One thing I am not buying is the .224 wOBA so far off his fastballs, especially with a average EV of 89, 304 average air distance, and 39% hard-contact rate.

Ronald Acuna has come in and shown why he is an elite prospect, and has a .446 wOBA and .259 ISO so far off right-handers. His average air distance is 361 feet so far, which is insane. Stratton is throwing his fastball 57% of the time to right-handed bats, and so far has a .585 wOBA off fastballs with a .375 ISO. To lefties, Stratton is still throwing his fastball 56% of the time to left-handers, which guys like Ozzie Albies mash with a .400 wOBA and .309 ISO. Freddie Freeman has a .449 wOBA and .331 ISO off fastballs, while even Nick Markakis has a .358 wOBA. Markakis also has shown some power against right-handers this year, sitting at .184 right now. Depending on which catcher gets in the lineup, either Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki fine options. Flowers had a .348 wOBA and .168 ISO off right-handers dating back to last season. Suzuki has a .349 wOBA and .219 ISO.

If you are pivoting away from chalky stacks, I believe Minnesota will be slightly under-owned for their price tags. Carson Fulmer is a flyball pitcher, and allowing over a .170 ISO to both sides of the plate since last season. Fulmer's walks and flyball issues are going to catchup with him eventually, because he has been relatively decent in his starts so far, but a 5.95 xFIP and 5.50 SIERA is something to note. Fulmer relies mostly on his fastball and cutter, and will mix in a changeup every now and then. Fulmer's cutter has a .389 xwOBA to right-handers, and a .571 xwOBA to lefties. The four-seam fastball is also getting crushed, and is due for even more regression.

Guys on Minnesota that mash cutters, Eddie Rosario shockingly grades out well, and that is a joke if you follow our pods. Rosario has a .430 wOBA and .281 ISO off cutters dating back to 2016, and a .377 wOBA off Fulmer's fastball range. Guys like Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, and Robbie Grossman all have over a .400 wOBA off Fulmer's fastball range. Grossman also has a .445 wOBA and .259 ISO off cutters. Logan Morrison is heating up a bit, and is still cheap, he has a .420 xwOBA off cutters dating back to 2016. A bat worth keeping an eye on is Eduardo Escobar, who has a .282 ISO and .393 wOBA off right-handers so far this season. Max Kepler is another strong value, with a .367 wOBA and .230 ISO off righties.

You have to go back to about 2015-2016 to find a full year of Wei-Yin Chen. He has been injured of late, so the splits above are only over about a 38 inning sample size. While things can change, looking back at 2016 numbers, he allowed a .334 wOBA and 21 home runs to right-handed bats. If you have been playing DFS for a while, you know Chen is a flyball pitcher, prone to home runs. Chen throws a few different pitches, but does rely on the fastball a bit more than others. He is allowing a .260 ISO off his fastball dating back to last season, but back in 2016 he threw his two-seam and changeup the most to right-handed bats. He threw a slider and two-seam 60% of the time to lefties, which is noteworthy for a Joey Votto. Votto has a .343 wOBA and .361 xwOBA off the slider dating back to 2016. Votto had a .377 wOBA off two-seam fastballs back in 2017. Adam Duvall also mashed two-seamers, with a .514 wOBA in 2017. Eugenio Suarez is another one, with a .437 wOBA, and even Devin Mesoraco had a .331 wOBA. Against changeups, both Duvall and Suarez have over a .200 ISO against them dating back to 2016. Depending on how the Reds lineup comes out, they make for a sneaky stack tonight.