MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-7-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

I am hoping the Phillies go overlooked on the slate because Jeff Samardzija is a notable name. With Philadelphia being heavily left-handed, I am digging some of the upside given Samardzija has allowed a .224 ISO to lefties dating back to last season. Samardzija allowed 30 home runs last season, and 22 of them came on the road. Citizens Bank is an above average park for lefty power, tied for for 5th in park factors with Coors in 2017, and there are a handful of lefties you can target here against Samardzija. His hard-contact also rose on the road last season, and this is all expected due to AT&T Park being such a good pitchers park. Shark has always had some issues with lefty bats, allowing a career .330 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9.

Samardzija is threw a two-seam fastball to lefties 28% of the time to lefties last season, and is throwing it 57% to them this year. Not great giving he is allowing a .407 wOBA off the pitch this season, and a .399 wOBA in 2017 with a .289 ISO. If the Phillies roll out a fair amount of lefties, I like them even more as a stack. Cesar Hernandez has a .377 wOBA off fastballs in Samardzija's range, while Carlos Santana has a .360 xwOBA, and you know by now has been one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball. Odubel Herrera has a .337 wOBA and .164 ISO off right-handers dating back to last season. If Nick Williams finds his way in the lineup tonight, he has a .187 ISO off right-handers dating back to last season. The problem is that he is having a hard time getting into the lineup on a regular basis. While Samardzija is solid against right-handers, Rhys Hoskins has a .542 xwOBA and .214 ISO off Samardzija's fastball dating back to last season, Aaron Altherr has a .390 wOBA and .250 ISO as well. This Samardzija start could go two ways, he struggles against the lefty bats and gives up a couple of long balls, or the Phillies K% against right-handers catches up with them.

The Mets offense has been very inconsistent this season, and we have yet to see some of the bigger names produce at a consistent rate. A lot of these names are very cheap, and it is amazing you can stack against Homer Bailey and play an ace like Stephen Strasburg on the same slate. New York will get the advantage of playing in Great American Ballpark, which is a top five hitters park. In 2017 it was 4th for left-handed and right-handed home runs. The Mets bats should get a wake up here against Bailey. Not much has changed this year for Bailey, allowing over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate and over a 40% flyball rate. The hard-contact to right-handers is up to 53% this season, and 35% to lefties. I am willing to attack from both sides of the plate here, especially in this ballpark.

The outfield for the Mets is very affordable, and Brandon Nimmo should find his way into the lineup because Yoenis Cespedes left the game yesterday with a groin injury. Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, and Nimmo all have over a .200 ISO against right-handers dating back to last season. Asdrubal Cabrera is crushing right-handers this season, with a .417 wOBA and .278 ISO this season, and rounds out the lefties I want to target. Bailey is throwing a four-seam fastball 43% of the time to lefties this season, and his changeup 24% of the time. Nimmo, Bruce, Conforto, and Cabrera all have over a .330 wOBA off the fastball range. All have over a .360 xwOBA off changeups dating back to 2016. Even a guy like Todd Frazier is intriguing, with a .408 xwOBA off changeups, and .431 wOBA off Bailey's fastball range.

Stacking against Zach Eflin did not work the first time this season, but that was Miami. San Francisco is coming off a decent offensive weekend, and have some power at good price tags tonight. Eflin is a guy who we picked on numerous times prior to 2018, and with over a six ERA in 2017, you know why. As mentioned with the Phillies above, the Giants will move to a solid hitters park, especially for the left-handers.

Brandon Belt is one of my favorite bats on the slate, sitting with a .273 ISO and .387 wOBA off right-handers dating back to last season. Belt gets a tremendous park upgrade, and Eflin is throwing his fastball 45% of the time to left-handers dating back to last season, which is getting tagged for a .323 ISO. Belt has a .359 wOBA and .230 ISO off Eflin's fastball range. Gregor Blanco has a .405 wOBA and .227 ISO off the same pitch, and should be leading off tonight. Blanco is dirt cheap and viable value option in all formats. Brandon Crawford is coming off a strong series in Atlanta, and is another lefty bat who punishes Eflin's velocity fastball. He has a .356 wOBA and .217 ISO off the pitch. Alen Henson should find his way into the lineup again, and is another lefty with a .465 wOBA and .296 ISO off the fastball.

Even the right-handed bats are viable here, Eflin has allowed a .332 wOBA and .184 ISO to right-handers. Both Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey are solid options, both sporting hard-contact rates near 40% against Eflin's fastball. Evan Longoria has a .271 ISO off the pitch and has an xwOBA of .342 off right-handers dating back to last season. The Giants are a fairly cheap stack against one of the weaker pitchers on the slate.