MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-9-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Seattle is the top stack on the board here tonight, and only Kansas City can rival my love for them. Jaime Garcia has been subpar against both sides of the plate, allowing a .181 ISO to right-handers, and a .200 ISO to lefties dating back to last season. Garcia is a groundball pitcher, but home runs are still available off of him. He has allowed eight already this season, and one in each game. The groundball rate is much lower this year, because his sinker is only being used 20% of the time, and the 38% groundball are and .714 ISO off it so far in 2018 leads me to believe something is obviously wrong there. His fastball is getting punished for a .420 wOBA and .333 ISO this season, while his slider has been his best pitch, but isn't something he throws a ton of. Most of the Seattle bats are in play tonight, outside of maybe one or two. They all are at reasonable price tags, starting with Nelson Cruz who is a lock usually against lefties, but $3,700 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings is just a steal. He has a .365 wOBA and .219 ISO off left-handers dating back to last season, with an xwOBA of .481. If Garcia is going to throw his fastball and sinker a combined 55% of the time, which are his two worst pitches this season, sign me up. Cruz has a 397 wOBA off sinkers, and a .461 wOBA off Garcia's fastball range. Mitch Haniger is the other standout with a .503 wOBA off the fastball range, and .405 ISO, he also has a .386 wOBA off sinkers dating back to 2016. Jean Segura is another right-handed bat you can use here, with a .385 wOBA off sinkers and .387 wOBA off Garcia's fastball. He doesn't have the highest power, but works well in this stack. Both guys like Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino have over a .200 ISO against lefties dating back to last season, and Zunino is someone who gets a ton of lift off sinkers and fastballs, posting a groundball rate less than 30% of the time. Zunino also has a whopping .359 ISO off Garcia's fastball range.

Even the power lefties are in play here. I talked a little bit about Kyle Seager the last two days and his ability to hit sinkers. Seager hits his fastball range well with a .422 wOBA and .313 ISO, but sinkers he has a .406 wOBA and .252 ISO against as well. Garcia has allowed a .200 ISO to lefties since last season, and Seager has a .167 ISO off lefties. He will be overlooked tonight in general, but also mixed into this stack. Second base is rather weak, and Robinson Cano is another bat you can consider here. He has a .344 xwOBA off lefties, and 42% of his batted balls are 95mph+.

Wade LeBlanc is a 33-year-old arm, who has been worse off against lefties in his career. Probably not a statement to start when I am looking at the right-handers, but a flyball lefty allowing a 35% hard-contact rate to right-handers is still somewhat concerning. He is allowing nearly a 60% flyball+linedrive rate to right-handers in that span. I am not exactly buying the LeBlanc buzz here, and while he may not be someone you want to pick on, I will be here. LeBlanc's changeup is is thrown mostly here, as he is throwing it 31% of the time in 2018. It is not a bad pitch, but it has a .393 xwOBA , 35% hard-contact rate, and 35% groundball rate. The changeup sustainability is something I am not buying into here, and there are a few notable names that standout against changeups as well. LeBlanc is a low velocity arm, averaging about 86mph on his fastball. These are numbers batters will only see a few times, so sample sizes are low, but the numbers are solid.

Josh Donaldson may or may not be hiding his injury still as he continues to battle nagging injuries dating back to last season. I am still okay with using him here, because for one he mashes lefties (.365 ISO, .418 wOBA, 43.4% hard-contact rate), but he profiles very well here. He has a .587 wOBA and .583 ISO against fastballs less than 88 mph. He also has a .370 wOBA and .291 ISO off changeups dating back to 2016. Justin Smoak is another bat that profiles well, and is only $3,500 on DraftKings tonight, but has a .376 wOBA and .228 ISO off changeups since 2016. Smoak has some solid power against lefties in general, with a .210 ISO dating back to last year, and then mashes low velocity fastballs with a .829 wOBA and 1.286 ISO. Of course this is over six batted ball events. Yangervis Solarte hits changeups fairly well with a .336 wOBA and .239 ISO, but the downside is that he plays the same position as Donaldson. On FanDuel you can still play both, but DraftKings you have to make a choice, and it will likely come down to salary, but Donaldson would be the preferred option of the two. Teoscar Hernandez continues to hit the ball well, and in small sample sizes profiles well. He has a .380 xwOBA off changeups, and a .200 ISO. His xwOBA off southpaws is over .200 and he has a .240 ISO in his career. Even guys like Kevin Pillar and Russell Martin are viable options to round out the stack. Both sport decent numbers off changeups, and have an xwOBA over .360 against left-handers dating back to last season.

After exploding for 15 runs last night, and 10 of then coming in the first inning it was hard for me to write up the Royals. Not because of the spot, I just hate going to a stack that absolutely crushed the night before, but this is too good to pass up again. This entire series the Royals are going to be a value stack, because they face Chris Tillman after this. Andrew Cashner has allowed a .388 wOBA and .293 ISO to left-handers this season, and a .335 wOBA and .205 ISO right-handers. Cashner is more flyball prone to lefties (53%). He throws his sinker about 40% of the time, and relies on some subpar off-speed stuff. His curveball is getting hit for a .500 wOBA and .364 ISO this season, his changeup is getting hit for a .352 wOBA and .188 ISO, and his slider has a 19% whiff rate and .456 xwOBA. This is all in addition to his .412 wOBA and .304 ISO allowed off the sinker, which is only generating a 40% groundball rate this season. Cashner has allowed 16 earned runs over his last four starts, and has not made it past five in two of them. Even if Cashner leaves early, this Baltimore pen has the 9th worst ERA in the majors.

Going to focus on sinkers here for who profiles well, given the off-speed stuff is fairly spread out and getting crushed anyway. Jorge Soler is in play, and I feel you really have to be a bad right-hander for Soler to be in play, but here we are. Soler has a .361 wOBA and .238 ISO off sinkers dating back to 2016, and the important thing is he makes contact (82%). Mike Moustakas has a .334 wOBA and .190 ISO off the pinch, and the 90% contact rate is another plus. Salvador Perez has a .325 wOBA, but an xwOBA over .400 with a .222 ISO. Lucas Duda is a terrific value first baseman tonight, who has a .344 wOBA and .240 ISO against sinkers. Camden Yards is also favorable for lefty power, so a guy like Alex Gordon, who has a .208 ISO off sinkers is in play as well. As mentioned above, second base is pretty thin, but Whit Merrfield has a .415 wOBA and .191 ISO off sinkers dating back to 2017. Everyone in the projected lineup has over an 80% contact rate against the pitch, and there are seven bats with over a .190 ISO. Soler, Moose, Perez, Duda, Gordon, and Merrifeld also get a lot of lift on it, sporting groundball rates less than 50%.