MLB Stacking To Win It: 6-29-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

David Hess has allowed five earned runs in each of his last four starts, and has allowed thee home runs in that span. He has failed to pitch past the fifth inning in each start, and he is easily one of the weakest arms on the slate. While the Angels offense fell flat in Boston, they get some easy pitching matchups ahead and in some favorable ballparks. Camden Yards is one of them, being above average for right and left-handed power. Hess has been throwing his fastball over 60% of the time in these last three starts, and has thrown his slider less than 20% of the time, which is a bit odd. If he is gong to continue this trend, then I am looking at some bats that hammer the 92 mph fastball well, and there is a bunch of them. Ian Kinsler has been struggling a bit this year, but his power against right-handers has picked up. He has a .206 ISO against right-handers, and a .221 ISO against Hess's fastball range. Mike Trout has a .402 wOBA and .200 ISO against Hess fastball range, and he is Mike Trout. Justin Upton has a .432 wOBA and a monster .365 ISO. Albert Pujols is a cheap right-handed first base option, with a .207 SO and 42% contact rate against this fastball range. While Andrelton Simmons isn't a power bat, although he homered last night, he has a .342 wOBA and 36% hard-contact rate against right-handers. His numbers against the fastball are average, boasting a .333 wOBA, but he has a 91% contact rate. If Hess relies on the slider, both Upton and Trout have over a .200 ISO against the pitch. Simmons and Kinsler have over a 75% contact rate. Pujols has struggled against this pitch, so it would be a disadvantage for him.

Tyler Anderson has shown some tendencies to blowup this season, and if that happens tonight it also leaves way for the Dodgers to get a crack at this struggling. Anderson is a guy who is mainly fastball, cutter, changeup The off-speed stuff has been above average, as his changeup and curveball both have over a 30% whiff rate and hitters have under a .260 wOBA. Anderson doesn't throw the curveball more than 5% however. Anderson has a double-digit walk rate to the left side, and right-handers have a 32% hard-contact rate. Anderson is not rolling any groundballs, as both rates are under 40%. The Dodgers offer up some cheap upside tonight, which goes well with the expensive pitching options. The projected lineup for the Dodgers is very enticing. Chris Taylor has been dealing with nagging injuries, but has a .364 wOBA and .241 ISO against left-handers this season. Kike Hernandez has been red hot over the last few weeks, and has a .245 ISO and .359 wOBA. Justin Turner has a small 2018 sample size due to injury, but dating back to last season he has a .470 wOBA and .289 ISO against southpaws. Matt Kemp has been obliterating left-handed pitching, and is a reasonable price around the industry. He has a .405 wOBA and .298 ISO, but that 49.2% hard-contact rate is really something. Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger are both in play despite the lefty-lefty matchup. Bellinger has a .217 ISO against southpaws, but also has a contact rate below 65%. Muncy has a .459 wOBA and .400 ISO against southpaws, and Anderson has allowed a lot of production to them this season. Against Anderson's fastball range there is not a weak link. We know Kemp mashes fastballs, and this range he has a .470 wOBA and .313 ISO. Taylor and Hernandez have over a .200 ISO against the pitch, while Turner sits at .195 with a 44% hard-contact rate. Against changeups, Turner stands out the most with a .194 ISO and 37% hard-contact rate. Against cutters, Kemp and Taylor have over a .200 ISO against it.

Dear god I am setting myself up for disappointment here aren't I? Yovani Gallardo is on the hill, and has been awful since returning from the DL. He has allowed three home runs in two starts, to go alongside five walks and nine earned runs. His SwStr% is under six, and hitters have an 86.2% contact rate, which bodes well for a White Sox team that swings and misses a lot. Gallardo has been allowing over a 30% line drive rate and 40% flyball rate this year, which is not ideal for pitching anywhere, but especially Texas. Gallardo is throwing a 91-92mph fastball 55% of the time, a slider 22.4% of the time, and a curve and changeup a little less than 15%. There are some viable bats in this Chicago lineup that standout. Yoan Moncada has a .417 xwOBA and 35% hard-contact rate against this fastball range. His EVAvg is is 93.1mph. Moncada is a boom-or-bust option, but has plenty of power at the 2B position. Avisail Garcia has a .405 wOBA and .217 ISO off this fastball range, and his bat back in this lineup is a solid addition. Jose Abreu has a .444 wOBA and .355 ISO off this fastball range, and a ridiculous 50% hard-contact rate. Matt Davidson has a small sample size against this range, but deserves more. His average distance is 317 feet, and a 41% hard-contact rate, but a .237 ISO and .143 ISO. He has a .564 xwOBA and 9% groundball rate. Even back half of the lineup guys like Tim Anderson and Yolmer Sanchez are in play, although Sanchez is day-to-day with an injury. Anderson has a .572 wOBA and .514 ISO against this fastball range. Sanchez has a .391 wOBA and .321 ISO against the range. Both have over a .180 ISO against right-handers on the year.