MLB Stacking To Win It: 6-8-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Right off the bat you might be thinking if there are enough left-handed bats to take advantage of Matt Harvey's splits here, and the answer is no. Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler would be the only ones, but that is okay. Harvey has a higher groundball rate to right-handers, and in 2018 alone has a .347 xwOBA to right-handers. He also has a .426 xSLG to right-handers this season, and hitters currently have a .388 SLG%. Right-handed bats still have a 36.1% hard-contact rate off Harvey, so I am more than okay stacking the Cardinals, especially in this ballpark. The Cardinals moving into GAB gives them a much higher ceiling than Busch Stadium, where they have a 91 wRC+ as a team, which ranks 21st in the majors. The Cardinals wRC+ jumps to 14th in the majors when on the road, and their ISO rises about 30 points. Heading into a top five hitters park, all these guys get a big bump. Facing Harvey is just an addition to this stack. His fastball is getting hammered for a .390 wOBA and .321 ISO this season, and the 51% hard-contact rate is one of the many reasons there will be no turn around for the Dark Knight. His slider is not generating as many swing and misses as it should, sitting at a 23.4% whiff rate. His slider has a .366 xwOBA and .184 wOBA currently, so some regression could be coming. The changeup, sinker, and curveball all have over a .400 wOBA allowed, and have a hard-hit rate over 30%. The Cardinals all standout against Harvey's fastball range of 93 mph. Carpenter has a .370 wOBA and 48% hard-contact rate dating back to 2016. Fowler has a .388 wOBA and .241 ISO in the same time span. You can certainly look at these two from the left side as one-offs, but a few others standout here to round out a stack. Tommy Pham is another with a .521 wOBA and .306 ISO. He also has a 59% hard-contact rate to go with it. Pham also stands out against sliders with a .358 wOBA and .240 ISO. Marcell Ozuna has a .410 wOBA and .236 ISO, and while his numbers have been down this season he is a cheap bat in a good ballpark. He also has a .195 ISO against this slider. While the contact rates are rather poor against the slider, Harvey isn't missing many bats with it. Guys like Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina both have over a .400 wOBA against the pitch and make strong contact as you'd expect. If you want to get another lefty in, Kolten Wong has a .399 wOBA and .222 ISO off his fastball range.

I mentioned the home road splits for the Cardinals above, and the Phillies are in a similar boat. They have a 106 wRC+ at home this season, which is seventh in the bigs. On the road that wRC+ drops to 76, ranking 28th in the majors. This isn't much of a surprise for a younger team, but it does show how Citizens Bank is one of the premier hitters parks. The Phillies are a sneaky contrarian stack tonight, and Vegas isn't giving them much of a chance given their play of late. Back at home against Jhoulys Chacin is a contrarian spot for a tournament stack. A few of their bats standout against Chacin due to their ability to hit the slider, which he throws over 35% of the time. Cesar Hernandez is one of them, with a .362 wOBA, .188 ISO, and 72% contact rate against the pitch. He also gets the lefty bump given Chacin has always struggled against left-handed hitters. Odubel Herrera doesn't standout against the slider that much, but does have a .418 xwOBA and 70% contact rata dating back to 2016. Carlos Santana is the one I have a lot of interst in, boasting a .206 ISO and 75% contact rate against sliders in that same span. We saw J.P. Crawford get back into the lineup, and has a .263 ISO against sliders in a small sample size. Chacin is throwing a fastball hovering around 90mph this season, which hasn't been doing much. Hernandez has a .510 wOBA and .344 ISO against the pitch. Santana a .538 wOBA and .346 ISO, while Herrera has a 372 wOBA. With Nick Williams banged up, we saw Dylan Cozens get an at-bat, and would be an interesting option if he gets into the lineup. Cozens at 10 HR over 50 games this season in Triple-A and had 67 over the last two seasons in the minors. Cozens has plenty of pop in that bat, but the strikeouts come with it. Chacin has allowed a .345 wOBA to lefties this year, and his strikeout rate plummets to 11.1%, and a walk rate of 12.5%. The 40.2% hard-contact and pull rates are also intriguing, especially in this ballpark that is friendly for left-handed power. If for some reason the Phillies roll out more right-handers, then these guys just turn into viable one-offs.

Michael Fulmer is not someone I usually stack against, as he rarely blew up in prior seasons. That has been a little different this year, allowing five or more runs in four of twelve starts this season. One of those games came on the road against Cleveland, where he allowed nine runs, six of them earned. He has also allowed nine earned runs over his last two starts. Fulmer has not pitched well at home, where he home runs go to a 1.56 HR/9, and the strikeout rate drops to 14.5%. He is also allowing a 45% hard-contact rate at home, compared to 32.2% on the road. Fulmer is giving up a lot of hard-contact in general. Left-handed bats have a 37% hard-contact rate, while right-handers have a 41.5% rate. Lefties have had success against him this season, with a .335 wOBA and .229 ISO. Their average exit velocity is 90.3mph, and flyball rate is 35.1%, which is much higher than it is for right-handers. Fulmer's sinker has not been working this season with a .363 wOBA and .427 xwOBA. It has a pedestrian groundball rate of 46.6%. His slider, fastball, and changeup all have hard-contact rtes over 30%, and xwOBAs over .360. The Indians all have solid numbers against Fulmer's 95mph fastball. Francisco Lindor has a .363 wOBA and .170 ISO, but also has a .411 wOBA and .238 ISO against his sinker. Jose Ramirez is in a similar boat with a .420 wOBA and .258 ISO against his sinker, and a .380 wOBA and .187 ISO against his fastball. I am more intrigued with the lefties here, so Yonder Alonso is my first baseman of choice. He has a .394 wOBA and .245 ISO off sinkers. He also has a .359 wOBA and .173 ISO against his 95mph fastball. You can dive into the cheaper bats as well, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall have over a .340 wOBA off his fastball, and also have near 90% contact rates against sinkers.