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2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

Health will be the key to any sort of noise out of the Mets this season. David Wright has already begun the injury concern in Spring Training, while Matt Harvey's velocity looks down early in Spring. Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Noah Syndergaard are also in need of full healthy seasons. If everything goes right in the health department, New York can be a dark horse in the NL. A more realistic approach expects them to be fighting for a Wild Card spot. The Mets were tied for ninth in ISO, but 26th in runs per game. The Mets had the third best ERA in the league, and have a decent bullpen to backup those starters. Even if New York loses a guy, maybe outside of Syndergaard, they should be able to repeat such success.

Offseason Moves

Additions:

Subtractions:

Park Factors

Citi Field is more of a neutral ballpark than anything. In the colder months in favors the pitchers, but we have seen Citi Field open up a bit more of late. Left-handed hitters are favored in the home run department, while right-handers have below average park factors. Citi Field ranked 16th in runs, and 11th in home runs. For the most part, this is still a subpar hitter's park, but you can often gain lower ownership because it will be highly touted as a pitcher's park. Adjustments over the last few seasons have favored hitters more.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Curtis GrandersonOF.349.238.312.199
2David Wright3B.354.218.317.194
3Yoenis CespedesOF.352.244.441.282
4Jay BruceOF.324.210.209.080
5Neil Walker2B.329.167.420.280
6Asdrubal CabreraSS.342.208.356.143
7Lucas Duda1B.328.195.200.133
8Travis d'ArnaudC.298.098.216.000
9PitcherP----

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1Noah Syndergaard182.229.22.30
2Jacob DeGrom14823.73.32
3Steven Matz132.123.63.39
4Matt Harvey92.218.93.47
5Seth Lugo4715.24.93

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: A-

DFS Studs: Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Jacob DeGrom

Noah Syndergaard had the third best strikeout rate last season, and is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Syndergaard had a 2.60 ERA, and even an inflated .334 BABIP. Syndergaard has an elite fastball, but has really developed his secondary pitches nicely. He did have an issue with a bone spur in 2016, but doesn't look to be lingering into 2017. Syndergaard is one of the elites to pay up for whenever he is on the hill.

Speaking of injury, Jacob deGrom had to have his elbow cleaned up, but the news came out good. He was still effective in 2016, but saw a drop off in strikeouts. On that note, he was still above average (23.7%). deGrom is just one of the trio of safe Mets starters to deploy on a nightly basis. Steven Matz put up similar numbers to deGrom, but had a bit more serious elbow surgery. We don't have to deal with the injury concern on a season basis, but Matz will need to be seen healthy before I deploy. Matz had a 3.30 xFIP and a 23.6% strikeout rate in 2016.

It is hard to see Matt Harvey coming back on the map, after his velocity has declined over the last season. His strikeout rate has dropped in each of the last two seasons, coming down to a mediocre 18.9% last year. A 4.31 SIERA doesn't indicate his 4.86 ERA was all that unlucky. Harvey is likely going to see an ERA in the high threes this season. Harvey might carry the name on some nights, but he is likely nothing more than an average right-hander right now.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: C+

DFS Studs: Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes was the true standout option in 2016 for New York, other than him, nobody really delivered on a constant basis. Cespedes hit 31 home runs, but lacked a bit in the RBI department with just 86. A lot of that has to do with Curtis Granderson not being your prototypical OBP leadoff man, and the Mets mixing and matching hitters to fill the two spot. The Mets offense was dreadful for most of the season, but had a lot of boom or bust guys, making them a good tournament team against a weak arm.

Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, and Lucas Duda all carry power, but are not great cash game guys. Granderson hit 30 home runs last season, but hit below .240. Bruce hit 33 between Cincinnati and New York last season, but a .250 average leaves more to be desired. Bruce had a .290 wOBA in New York, over 50 games. I am a big fan of Duda, who had an injury plagued season in 2016. in 2015, he hit 27 home runs, and 30 the year before. He has big time power, and if healthy, will be overlooked early on in 2016. Neil Walker is the only other notable bat, who hit 23 home runs, and was 12th among second baseman in average.



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