Philadelphia Phillies - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: Not Posted

The Phillies are in full-fledged rebuild mode. They'll be lucky to reach the 73 wins they totaled in 2014. The faces you see on the Opening Day roster are unlikely to be the ones there by season's end. All of this is to say there is little on this roster to get excited about, but some players could be rotated in who present bargain value during the year.

Park Factors

A 22% boost for left-handed homers is big. The 46% jump right-handed batters receive when playing in Philadelphia compared to a neutral park is downright silly. Grab your home run hitters by the handful for daily games when there's a game at Citizens Bank Park. Conversely, fly-ball pitchers are dangerous to roster there. Pitchers who keep the ball on the ground will be a great play since they avoid the homer pitfalls and strikeouts play up in the City of Brotherly Love -- getting a piece of the Phillies' hitters isn't bad either.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Carlos Ruiz- 55/79

Cameron Rupp- 50/79

The duo of Carlos Ruiz and Cameron Rupp isn't one that will help pitchers with their work behind the plate. Both are poor pitch framers, and they'll make it tough to rely on an already suspect bottom part of the rotation.

Spring Training Storylines

Who starts in left field?

The team's official website lists Darin Ruf as the starter, but he'll compete with Grady Sizemore for playing time. Ruf's primary position is first base, but he's played the outfield over the last few years in order to get his above average power in the lineup. He had a track record of hitting left-handed pitchers hard in the minors, so his ability to rip them in the majors seems legit. He'll have GPP appeal due to his power, but his value is low in cash games due to a high strikeout rate, low walk rate and poor batting average.

How will the Phillies sort out of the middle of their order?

When they face right-handed pitchers, slotting Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back won't be an issue, however, they'd be wise to break them up against southpaws. They may choose to break them up with Carlos Ruiz when facing a team with talented lefties in their bullpen, too. Ultimately, the middle of the order will probably be fluid throughout the year -- possibly game to game.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Ben Revere's value is tied to his high contact rate and blazing speed. His power is non-existent. His ability to avoid strikeouts makes him a high batting average, singles-hitting machine. He partly makes up for his low extra base output by swiping bags. Last year Revere nabbed 49 and he stole 40 in 2012. His low walk rate results in a ho-hum OBP, and hitting leadoff for the Phillies isn't as glorious as doing so for a talented offense. When he's facing a battery whom struggle to control the running game, he'll have some cash games appeal. Revere's ceiling is on the low side, though.

Chase Utley's high level of production during his peak years has allowed him to remain a very good hitter while on the downside of his career. He's best reserved for using against right-handed pitchers, and his cost shouldn't be exorbitant.

Carlos Ruiz's value will be impacted greatly by his lineup slot. If he's used to split up lefties in the lineup and hitting third, his stock will benefit greatly from the run and RBI upside awarded to him from there as opposed to hitting down order. Even down order, though, Ruiz's above average offensive skills will leave him in the pile of usable catchers.

Ryan Howard has been awful in recent years. His sizable contract has been the butt of many jokes. That said, there might still be some pop in the burly slugger's bat. And since his home ballpark amplifies dingers to left-handed batters by 22%, that's worth keeping an eye on. Write him off against lefties, and make him prove he can bounce back from an ugly .132 ISO versus right-handed pitchers in 2014 before using him this season.

Skipping Ruf, who has already been discussed at length above, leaves Domonic Brown next on the pecking order. Brown hit 27 homers and had a 123 wRC+ in 2013 before reverting back to the player who looked like a bust. The former highly touted prospect has tools to dream on, as evidenced by his 2013 outburst, but don't bank on those tools resulting in production until he shows 2013 was more than a fluke.

Cody Asche is, by and large, a place holder for prospect Maikel Franco. Asche will rarely be worth using in daily games, but Franco could be when he gets the call. Franco posted a 14.6% K rate in Triple-A last year, but had only a .257 average to show for making lots of contact. He should hit for more average, and he has above average power to boot. Freddy Galvis is a glove first shortstop who has no business on daily game rosters.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Cole Hamels is the ace of the staff and a really good pitcher. The lefty gets a healthy number of strike threes, limits free passes and keeps the ball on the ground at an acceptable enough rate to combat his home park's homer amplifying ways.

Cliff Lee's tale is becoming a sad one. He has elbow damage to the flexor tendon and is going to try to rehab it. He's still experiencing discomfort and is opening the year on the 60-day disabled list. It's possible -- more like probable -- he'll eventually be shut down. And when he does pitch, it's anyone's guess how he'll fare. It would be a mistake to use Lee before seeing how he's able to pitch with elbow soreness.

Fun fact about Aaron Harang's 2014 season, his 3.57 ERA was identical to his 3.57 FIP. Unfortunately, he relied on some good fortune on fly balls allowed to beat his 4.03 xFIP. Don't count on continued good luck in his new digs, and his low strikeout rate hurts his daily value, too.

Jerome Williams and David Buchanan are both unrosterable under most foreseeable circumstances. They are, however, nice for targeting in daily games due to being bad pitchers. Former Los Angeles Dodger Chad Billingsley is recovering from multiple elbow surgeries and has thrown a successful bullpen session this spring. When he was last healthy for a full season, 2012, he managed a 3.34 FIP. It would be unwise to expect him to repeat that level of pitching, but he might sneak into the bargain bin for hurlers this year.

Stock Watch

Up- Cole Hamels

Hamels' stock is up because he's unlikely to spend the entire year with this sad sack of a roster. The Phillies' best trade chip is Hamels, and when he's dealt to a new team, his potential for tallying wins increases at an exponential rate. He'll be usable on sites like DraftKings early in the year as a result of their favorable scoring for strikeouts, but he'll be much less appealing on FanDuel. When he's dealt, however, he'll be in play across the industry.

Down- Ryan Howard

Howard's waning offensive output was discussed above. That alone would be enough to earn him the down arrow for his stock heading down the toilet, but it doesn't end there. His playing time is far from secure with general manager Ruben Amaro plainly stating the team would be better without him. Internal options such as Ruf and third baseman Franco could see playing time at first base, too.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The outlook is bleak for both the offense and rotation. Pitchers who face the Phillies will be regulars on daily baseball rosters. Ditto for hitters facing their pitchers. In fact, stacking hitters against the Phillies pitchers at Citizens Bank Park should be a highly profitable strategy for daily gamers. The best thing that can be said about a roster going through a rebuild like this is that it could yield some bargains at various times during the season. Beyond that, yuck.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports