2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

The Phillies are in a transition period, but have a great deal of youth in the lineup, as well as in their rotation. Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola have incredible talent, but both battled injuries in 2016. Maikel Franco hasn't exactly put all the pieces together, but is still a young bat on the rise. Odubel Herrera and Tommy Joseph are both coming off of promising 2016 seasons. This offense will still have its dry spells, but I am in belief that Philly gets out of the basement in runs per game (3.77).

Offseason Moves

Additions: Clay Buchholz, Michael Saunders, Howie Kendrick

Subtractions: Darin Ruff

Park Factors

Citizens Bank Park is one of the more underrated parks for hitters, and often gets overlooked on the fuller slates. It ranks ninth in park factors as a whole, and was seventh in home runs. For left-handed hitters, Citizens Bank was average for left-handed hitters in home runs and extra base hits. For right-handed bats, we saw a huge bump in 2016 for home runs. Keep tabs on games here, as quite often you will find above average offensive numbers. Likely from the opponent's side.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Cesar Hernandez2B.332.112.342.058
2Howie KendrickOF.312.135.285.058
3Odubel HerreraOF.359.164.275.042
4Maikel Franco3B.299.154.357.238
5Tommy Joseph1B.325.235.383.281
6Michael SaundersOF.335.205.391.294
7Freddy GalvisSS.301.175.233.104
8Cameron RuppC.302.171.415.309
9PitcherP----

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1Jerad Eickhoff197.120.64.19
2Aaron Nola11125.13.08
3Jeremy Hellickson189203.98
4Vincent Velasquez13127.63.96
5Clay Buchholz13915.85.06

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: C-

DFS Studs:

Aaron Nola had a strong first two months of 2016, boasting a 2.88 ERA over 11 starts. He also had a 9.5 K/9. Nola's 2.75 xFIP backed his strong start, but then started to trail off. Nola's health suggested the reason for the drop off. He finished the season with a 4.78 ERA, but a 3.08 xFIP. Nola should enter 2017 a 100% healthy, which gives me some interest. A 25% strikeout rate mixed with a 55% groundball rate is always a good indicator of success. Vince Velasquez was on a similar boat in 2016, he battled injuries, and threw 131 innings. He had a 3.67 xFIP, but had an over four ERA. Velasquez had a killer strikeout rate (27.6%), and gives you upside in tournaments. Velasquez will offer up big strikeout potential every time he starts, and unlike seasonal folks, we don't have to worry about the injury concerns.

The Phillies don't have the most exciting names outside of those two, but Jeremy Hellickson posted an underrated 2016. He was slightly above his career norm in strikeouts, and had a 3.99 xFIP. Hellickson had 17 quality starts last season, which was one behind Jake Arrieta. Jerad Eickhoff had 20. Hellickson posted stronger numbers at home, carrying a 3.16 ERA, and kept left-handed hitters to an average .325 wOBA. Eickhoff is an interesting arm, with a 20.6% strikeout rate.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: D

DFS Studs:

Cesar Hernandez kicks us off here, and is actually a serviceable value play in the DFS community. He had a .371 OBP and always found himself underpriced at the second base position. There is nothing exciting about him other than that, sorry. Odubel Herrera hit 15 home runs last season, and had 25 stolen bases. Herrera was another underrated outfielder from last year, and is expected to carry a double digit home run this season, and likely hover around 20 SB. His ceiling is a bit capped in comparison to other outfielders, but was a reliable cash game option.

The average dropped Maikel Franco this past season, but his BABIP was low as well. Franco should come back into a .270 range, and 25 home runs is a good indicator from here on out. He has a reasonable strikeout rate, and Franco is just 24 years old. Franco should come around in the power department a little bit more, in terms of extra base hits. He only had a .172 ISO, but will come around .200 at the end of the year. Tommy Joseph hit 21 home runs in 347 at-bats, and projections have him in the 500's. If that is the case, 25+ home runs could be realistic. He had a .248 ISO, and hitting in the middle of the lineup makes him a boom or bust tournament play in the right spot.



Comments
No comments.