2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Phillies won a league low 63 games last season, and they once again look like a squad that could flirt with 100 losses. By and large, this is s team that's going to struggle to produce offensively, and the pitching isn't a bright spot either. There are a few players who should provide value this year, and the beauty of a young team like this is that they could provide some pleasant surprises as they rotate in young players during a rebuilding year. That said, perhaps the best thing about a bad team like the Phillies is that they provide gamers value by picking on them (i.e. using value hitters against their bad pitchers and value pitchers against their soft lineup).

Park Factors

Park Factors LHB RHB
K 106 106
BB (Unintentional BB + HBP) 109 101
1B 98 97
2/3B 98 90
HR 110 145
Runs 96 105
gbH (Gbs turning into hits/errors) 105 103
ofH (Outfield Fbs, excluding HR, turning into hits/errors) 96 90
GB 99 97
FB 92 98
LD 99 96
IF 105 121

Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox. Lefties get an adequate 10% boost for homers, and righties receive a gargantuan boost of 45% for round-trippers. Normally, I'd caution against using an extreme fly-ball pitcher in a park like this, but the Phillies simply don't have the thump in their lineup to scare gamers away from any pitcher. That said, using visiting right-handed batters should prove quite fruitful against the below average staff of the Phillies. Really, using any visiting power hitters in this ballpark should provide value this year.

Projected Lineup

Lineup Spot Name Handedness Position Since '13 vs LHP ISO Since '13 vs RHP ISO Since '13 vs LHP wRC+ Since '13 vs RHP wRC+
1 Freddy Galvis B SS .075 .118 62 78
2 Odubel Herrera L CF .089 .132 99 114
3 Maikel Franco R 3B .158 .201 83 121
4 Ryan Howard L 1B .170 .192 70 106
5 Aaron Altherr R LF .173 .278 66 146
6 Peter Bourjos R RF .121 .117 70 90
7 Cameron Rupp R C .208 .102 124 60
8 Cesar Hernandez B 2B .057 .067 96 81
9 Pitcher N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Rotation Spot Name IP K% FIP
1 Jeremy Hellickson 146 19 4.44
2 Charlie Morton 129 17.1 4.19
3 Aaron Nola 77.2 21.4 4.04
4 Jerad Eickhoff 51 24.1 3.25
5 Vincent Velasquez 55.2 25.1 3.46

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Cameron Rupp - 38/72

Carlos Ruiz - 70/72

Yikes, Carlos Ruiz. His bat hasn't provided much value in recent years, and as you can see, his pitch framing isn't either. In 2014, he ranked 55th out of 79 catchers in per game value pitch framing among catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches, per StatCorner, so it's not as if last year was merely a flukey bad year. Philadelphia's pitchers would benefit from the offensively-challenged Cameron Rupp catching, but that's relatively speaking. Yes, he's an obvious upgrade from Ruiz as a pitch framer, but he still ranked in the bottom half of catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will win the leadoff job?

Even the worst teams in The Show can provide daily baseball options. One key factor is lineup position. Last year, guys like Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez occasionally had punt value in the middle infield thanks to being miscast in the leadoff spot. It's possible one could be tasked with that job when the team breaks camp this year, but they could also turn to Rule 5 hit Odubel Herrera or speedster Peter Bourjos. The lineup is likely to be influx throughout the year, and it starts at the top with the leadoff spot.

Can Darin Ruf nab a starting gig?

Ryan Howard is 36-years old and in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. They'll definitely be paying his buyout to rid themselves of his services before the 2017 season. Darin Ruf has already established himself as a lefty killer, and the most likely scenario is that he'll platoon at first base with Howard and potentially see some time in the corner outfield, too. He did hit right-handed pitching hard in 2013 (.231 ISO, .377 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in 212 plate appearances) and he's totaled a .186 ISO and .822 OPS in 1,186 plate appearances against righties in the minors since 2011, per Minor League Central. If the Phillies believe Ruf might have stopgap value at first base during their rebuild, they could consider starting him at first base over Howard. It does seem more likely they'll showcase Howard in the hopes of flipping him for a half-eaten box of stale Cracker Jacks at the trade deadline. Regardless, as long as Ruf gets at-bats against lefties, he'll occasionally have punt value against them at CPB thanks to his success against southpaws since 2013 (.233 ISO, .396 wOBA and 153wRC+) and the right-handed park factor for dingers in Philadelphia.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Freddy Galvis totaled 71 plate appearances hitting first and 190 plate appearances batting second last year. His bat belongs buried at the bottom of a lineup, but if he's once again miscast as a table setter, he could have some (reluctant) punt value based entirely on the opportunity to receive the maximum number of at-bats.

Odubel Herrera was selected from the Texas Rangers with the eighth pick in last year's Rule Five Draft, and he not only stuck with the Phillies, but he thrived. He has some speed and netted 16 steals, but an unsustainable .387 BABIP helped fuel his 110 wRC+. The batted ball data doesn't support his sky-high BABIP, but he does have a track record of high BABIP marks in the minors. The outfielder more than doubled his walk rate from the first half to the second half of the year, and considering the fact he was jumped from Double-A in 2014 to the majors last year without a stop in Triple-A, it's possible he was just getting settled in down the stretch. He did need a .432 BABIP in the second half to help notch his 133 wRC+, but if Herrera lands a favorable lineup spot (such as second, where I have him projected), he'll make for a fine bargain bin option, namely against righties.

Ryan Howard is a shell of his peak self, but he did swat 20 homers with a .243 ISO, .341 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against righties last season. His control of the strike zone has completely eroded, and his 5.4% walk rate last year is his lowest since his 42 plate appearance cup of coffee back in 2004. At best, Howard is a homer-chase play in GPPs on the cheap against bad right-handed pitching.

Aaron Alther had a fantastic minor league season in which he hit 14 homers and stole 16 bases in 489 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out in fewer than 20% of his plate appearances at both stops and waled in 10.8% of his Double-A plate appearances while walking in 9.2% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He earned a promotion to the majors (his second stint in the bigs after tallying five plate appearances in two games in 2014) and flashed his potential with five homers, six steals and a 9.9% walk rate in 161 plate appearances. His strikeout rate did balloon to 25.5%, but scouting reports have lauded his tools, and the power/speed output shouldn't necessarily be dismissed as a fluke. Alther doesn't have a dramatic platoon split in his minor league career, so don't put too much stock in his small sample split in the table above. Alther's intriguing, and if he claims a prominent lineup spot, he's worth rolling the dice on in GPPs right out of the gate.

Whelp, the rest of Philadelphia's lineup is ugly. Peter Bourjos has posted one season with a wRC+ north of 100 against lefties since reaching the majors in 2010 and two above 100 against righties. Outfield is too deep to expect him to emerge as a viable option, even in GPPs, more than maybe a handful of times this year. Cameron Rupp is a career .215/.281/.359 hitter ... at the Triple-A level. Yuck. Finally, Cesar Hernandez could have some fringe-punt value depending on his lineup spot. Last year, he tallied 335 plate appearances batting first or second. He also stole 19 bases and totaled a non-embarrassing 91 wRC+. Prior to last year's work, though, Hernandez managed just a 75 wRC+ and one stolen base in 256 plate appearances in the majors, so it's possible he turns back into a pumpkin.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Charlie Morton appears to be an unlucky chap at first glance. Last season, he recorded a 4.81 ERA compared to a 4.19 FIP, 3.87 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA. There's likely more to his struggles than bad luck, though, and the most obvious wart on his profile is a .384 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters last year. His .302 wOBA allowed to lefties in 2014 is clearly an outlier with a .380 wOBA allowed to them in 2013 also on his resume. Get your lefty-heavy lineup stacks ready against Ground Chuck this season. He is tough on righties (.275 wOBA allowed to them last year), though, so don't stick just any batter in your daily lineup against Morton.

If he was backed by a better offense, Aaron Nola would be a pitcher who draws a bit more hype entering the 2016 season. He had some homer issues (15.1% HR/FB) that are reflected by his FIP, but his 3.58 xFIP last year is damn near identical to his 3.59 ERA. The young righty kept the ball on the ground at a solid rate of 47.6%, per FanGraphs. He was torched for a .359 wOBA against lefties last year, but his pitch mix and minor league track record suggest he'll improve a great deal against them. He won't be a betting favorite often this year since he's backed by a garbage offense, but Nola's the most likely member of the rotation to have daily baseball value in 2016.

Jerad Eickhoff wasn't as well regarded a prospect as Nola was, but his big league work as a rookie was more impressive. His low ground-ball rate of 37.9% could hurt him at CBP, but he limits free passes (6.4% walk rate) and his strikeout rate, while a bit high, should be above average since his 10.4% swinging strike rate bested the league average in 2015 of 9.9%. Eickhoff featured a deep pitch mix that included a fourseam fastball, sinker, curve, slider and change, according to Brooks Baseball. Both of his breaking balls and his changeup had a whiff percentage above 13%, and his slider was his best bat-missing pitch with a 25.64% whiff rate. Unlike Nola, I'm less sold on Eickhoff improving a great deal against lefties. He allowed a .353 wOBA against left-handed batters last year, but he used his changeup just 6.9% of the time last year, and it features the lowest current and future scouting grade on his FanGraphs page (40 current, 45+ future with 50 representing league average on the 20-to-80 scale). He could have some GPP value, especially against righty-heavy lineups, but I'm also inclined to advocate stacking lefties against him right out of the gate.

The Phillies dealt dominant young closer Ken Giles to the Astros, and one of the key pieces they received in return was 23-year-old pitcher Vincent Velasquez. The young righty has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, and that's one of the main reasons some question his ability to remain a starter. He made 19 appearances for the Astros last year and started seven of those games. As a starter, Velasquez spun a 3.27 FIP in 38.0 innings, but he had some good fortune on fly balls, and his 4.26 xFIP reflects that. He struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced as a starter, but he also walked 9.0% of them. He has an electric arm that pumps out fourseam fastballs at an average velocity just north of 95 mph, per Brooks Baseball, and he backs his heater with a changeup with an average velo of 87.13 mph, a slider that was even slower at 85.02 mph on average and a curveball that was his slowest pitch at 82.17 mph on average. His repertoire is certainly deep enough to start, and he's semi-intriguing, but his fly-ball centric batted ball profile (50.0% fly-ball rate as a starter last year) is an awful fit for his home park. There's no reason to use him early in the year, but keep an eye on him throughout the season as he does have upside.

Stock Watch

Up - Maikel Franco

The bloom appeared to be off the rose of Maikel Franco's future outlook after a poor 2014 season in which he managed a 97 wRC+ with 16 homers in 556 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He was over matched at the big league level in his 58 plate appearances, too. A return trip to the Triple-A level was just what the doctor ordered, and he raked when called up to the bigs smacking 14 homers with a .217 ISO, .360 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances. He's a free-swinger with just a 7.8% walk rate, but he makes a lot of contact and struck out in just 15.5% of his plate appearances. Franco has some serious raw power and ranked 35th in average home run and fly ball distance (298.49 feet). His high ground-ball rate of 47.0% last year won't do him any favors reaching the seats, but right-handed power plays extremely well at GBP, and with a full season of work Franco could hit 25+ homers. He's easily the best daily baseball option on this team.

Down - Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Hellickson was quite meh last year with the Diamondbacks. He recorded a slightly below average strikeout rate and a slightly better than average walk rate (6.8% compared to 7.7% for the league average). He bumped his ground-ball rate up to a new career high, but it was just 42.4%. Among pitchers who pitched a minimum of 130 innings in 2015, his 34.1% hard hit ball rate was tied for the fifth highest. That rate is actually in line with recent seasons (34.9% in 2013 and 33.3% in 2014), too, so hard contact is clearly a problem for Hellboy, or perhaps we should call him Shellickson. The change of scenery and leagues last year did little to revive the righty's once promising career, and while moving from offense-aiding Chase Field to CPB is a slight upgrade in home venue, it's still a bad park for a pitcher who struggles to induce ground balls. Furthermore, he's backed by a worse offense, decreasing his odds of picking up wins. Hellickson was beaten like a drum by all batters last year (.339 wOBA allowed to lefties and .330 wOBA allowed to righties), and he'll be a pitcher you should pick on with regularity this season.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.



Comments
No comments.