Pittsburgh Pirates - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 83.5

The Pirates reached the postseason as a wild card club last year and project to make another postseason run. The roster blends high-end talent in the lineup and rotation with more reasonably priced options mixed in, too. It's a squad that daily gamers will find useful pieces on regularly.

Park Factors

PNC Park is a nightmare for hitting homers in with left-handed batters finding it 16% more difficult to hit them there than at a neutral park and right-handed batters getting sapped an absurd 40%. Right-handed batters also get docked doubles/triples by 5% and runs by 13%. Unless the matchup is right, using a right-handed batter here is a tough sell.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Francisco Cervelli- 8/79

Chris Stewart- 19/79

The two former Yankees catchers, Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart, checked in as top-20 pitch framers last season. Members of the rotation who are returning this season threw to a good pitch framer in Russell Martin last year, so they won't get a big boost in value with the new duo. Still, the pitchers who have poor control will benefit from having two catchers framing pitches who will pick up some extra strikes.

Spring Training Storylines

How will the club use Jung-Ho Kang?

Jung-Ho Kang mashed in the KBO -- Korea's highest level of professional baseball -- swatting 40 homers and slashing .356/.459/.739. The club signed him in the offseason to a modest contract with the hope some of his power and hitting skills would translate from the hitter-friendly league he played in to the majors. The spring has been rough and plagued by strikeouts, but it's important to remember the transition to the majors goes beyond figuring out pitching in the most talented baseball league in the world, he's also transitioning to life in a new country. Don't write him off after a poor showing in the spring, but his slow start could result in a demotion to Triple-A. If he's in the bigs, he'll probably serve as a reserve infielder at third base, shortstop and second base. If even 75% of his hitting ability translates to MLB, he'll be an above average power source at second base or shortstop and an intriguing daily game option.

Who will be the fifth starter?

Vance Worley and Jeff Locke are competing for the final rotation spot, and Worley appears to have the leg up. The right-handed pitcher was solid in 18 appearances (17 starts) in 2014 and the reason for his success was a tiny walk rate (4.8%), a big ground ball rate (49.4%) and a passable strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate doesn't support his strikeout rate, but if he's able to retain most of his control gains and his ground ball spike, he'll have some FanDuel value when the Pirates are favorites with him on the hill. His strikeout issues will prevent him from being a regular in DraftKings games.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Josh Harrison broke out in his age-26/27 season in 2014. He played himself into a starting job and is now manning the hot corner on an everyday basis. The utility fielder turned starting third baseman hit lefties and righties and finished the year with a 137 wRC+ and will have run scored upside hitting atop the Pirates lineup this season.

Starling Marte is a speedy outfielder with some pop. He doesn't walk often (6.1% in 2014), but has a knack for getting on base by hit-by-pitch. It seems to be legit, as he did so at a high-ish clip in the minors, too. His well-rounded skills and ability to hit lefties and righties make him a daily game consideration regularly, however, his excellence against southpaws makes him a stronger play when facing them.

Speaking of players who hammer southpaws, Andrew McCutchen has mastered the art of making life hell for lefties. Since 2012, McCutchen has the second highest wRC+ against lefties among qualified hitters -- Jose Abreu and his 158 plate appearances last year top him. The 2013 National League MVP is a must play against southpaws and usable against right-handed pitchers, despite his high cost.

Neil Walker is a switch-hitter who shouldn't be used against lefties. He's not good as a right-handed hitter. As a left-handed hitter, though, he's one of the best at the keystone position. Since 2012, Walker ranks third among qualified second basemen in wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers and second in ISO. His struggles against southpaws play in the favor of daily gamers since it will reduce the cleanup hitter's price for usage when he faces a right-handed pitcher. As long as he sticks in the cleanup role against righties, Walker will be a very good play in daily games.

Pedro Alvarez moves across the diamond to first base. He'll be platooning with Corey Hart, and Hart will face lefties with Alvarez facing righties. Alvarez possesses top-shelf power but strikes out a ton. In the right ballpark, Alvarez makes for the classic boom-or-bust GPP play. Hart struggled in an injury shortened 2014 campaign following being out the entire 2013 season. Further removed from injury, he's a player worth monitoring as someone who could be a value play against lefties.

Gregory Polanco is a toolsy young outfielder. He didn't light the world on fire last year in his debut, but his mastery of the Triple-A level -- .328/.390/.504 slash line in 305 Triple-A plate appearances -- at a young age points to his potential. A minor step forward would make him a potential bargain pick in the outfield, but the tools are there for him really exploding and becoming a daily baseball stud.

Jordy Mercer is no secret to savvy daily gamers. He's not good against right-handed pitchers, but he becomes a damn good hitter with a lefty on the bump. Even Clint Hurdle took notice, often moving him up in the order into the top one-third of the order when they faced a lefty last year. Take advantage of Mercer's sizable split and use him at a diminished price when he faces a lefty.

Don't read too much into Francisco Cervelli's numbers above. Since 2012, he's totaled only 360 plate appearances in the majors. Cervelli isn't an offensive asset and isn't someone who daily gamers need to concern themselves with.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Francisco Liriano's walk rate took a big step back from what he posted in 2013, but man, he misses tons of bats. He also coaxes a huge ground ball rate (54.4% in 2014). His lackluster control makes him a scary cash game pick due to unwanted volatility, but his huge strikeout rate and ability to frequently work out of jams makes him a high ceiling GPP play.

Gerrit Cole has the upside to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. According to the PITCHf/x leaderboard at Baseball Prospectus, Cole had the fifth highest average fourseam fastball velocity (96.65) among starters who threw a minimum of 200. He backs his premium cheddar with three secondary pitches with whiff rates north of 14.50%, according to Brooks Baseball. Cole will be one of my favorite daily game pitching options this year, and if he breaks out to the extent I expect him to, his early season pricing will provide a bargain for using him.

Charlie Morton is the rare starter who posted an identical ERA and FIP (3.72 last year). What he does best is keep the ball on the ground (55.7%). His walk rate is slightly below league average, and his strikeout rate is slightly below league average, but the sum of the parts is a ho-hum starter who is usable at FanDuel when the Pirates are betting favorites.

A.J. Burnett was a Pirate in 2012 and 2013, but was paid handsomely to pitch with the Phillies last year. He struggled in 2014 and will look to bounce back in black and yellow.

Stock Watch

Up- A.J. Burnett

What I failed to mention above is that Burnett pitched almost all of last year with a sports hernia before undergoing surgery in the fall. A healthy Burnett returns to a club he thrived with in 2012 and 2013 tallying a 3.52 FIP in 2012 and a 2.80 FIP in 2013. He's a ground ball inducing machine who can pile up punch outs, and he'll be a great early season target for those, like me, who buy into a rebound.

Down- Josh Harrison

Harrison's surprising success in 2014 was in part the result of a high BABIP. Regression will hurt his average. He also had a career year hitting homers, too, and I'd expect him to give a few long balls back. Finally, he stole 18 bases but was caught 7 times. If his success rate dips any further, he could get the stop light. For a player whose value is derived from across the board production, across the board regression is disastrous.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

If Hurdle is once again willing to move Mercer up the order and perhaps drop Marte to cleanup when the team faces a lefty, this club has scary good stack potential. It gets even more tantalizing if Hart hits lefties at a rate similar to his peak years with the Brewers. The 3-through-6 hitters could make for a sneaky mini-stack when the over total is high and the Pirates are facing a bad right-handed pitcher, too. Overall, the club has eight hitters who daily gamers will be churning through this year.

The rotation has three pitchers who can blow hitters away and strike them out at a high rate. Liriano, Cole and Burnett have carry-a-team upside at sites where strikeouts are scored favorably. Morton and Worley have a chance to be useful as bottom barrel options at FanDuel when gamers are looking to spend heavily on bats.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports