MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
Each day during MLB season will bring us some major price differences among starting pitchers on all sites. These price discrepancies and the site's roster differences can alter the way we use pitchers on each site. Listed below are five of today's top pitchers, each with their salary listed as well as a ratio that takes into account both the total salary cap on the site and the number of roster positions that need filling. We've also provided some betting info for you reference. The higher the ratio, the more you'll be able to spend elsewhere.
Salary Exploitation | |||||||||
Name | Opponent | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Draftster Salary | FD Ratio | DK Ratio | DS Ratio | Opp Vegas Run Total | Money Line |
Brandon McCarthy | SD | 7800 | 8800 | 7400 | 0.855 | 0.568 | 0.751 | 3 | 1.884 |
Adam Wainwright | MIL | 9600 | 9400 | 9300 | 0.694 | 0.532 | 0.597 | 3.5 | 1.68 |
James Paxton | MIN | 6400 | 7000 | 5700 | 1.042 | 0.714 | 0.975 | 3 | 1.632 |
C.J. Wilson | TEX | 7600 | 7600 | 6400 | 0.877 | 0.658 | 0.868 | 3.5 | 1.636 |
Shelby Miller | PHI | 8400 | 7300 | 7400 | 0.794 | 0.685 | 0.751 | 3.5 | 2.38 |
Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy has a lot of factors in his favor tonight, starting with his league-leading 14.6% Swinging Strike rate. He is facing a Padres offense that is striking out 20.3% of the time against righties, while also being near the bottom of the league with a 6.3% walk rate. He has struggled with the longball, having already served up six dingers on the season, but his career number of 1.09 HR/9 indicates that those numbers will regress to the mean sooner rather than later. McCarthy's 34.7% strikeout rate and miniscule 4.2% walk rate added with the lowest total on the board in the best pitcher's park in baseball make McCarthy an elite option on tonight's slate.
FanDuel: Elite Cash Games Option
DraftKings: Elite Cash Games Option
Draftster: Elite Cash Games Option
Adam Wainwright
Wainwright is a sizable favorite tonight against the Brewers in Milwaukee. The Brew Crew is striking out in an alarming 23.3% of plate appearances in the young season, while posting a pathetic team wOBA of .269 against right-handed pitchers. Wainwright isn't the dominant force he once was, but he still possesses the skills to mow down this weak Brewers lineup. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (49.3% groundball rate this season), and doesn't allow many free passes, having walked just three batters in 21 innings thus far this season. This is a righty-dominant lineup, which is right in Waino's wheelhouse, as he has allowed just a .275 wOBA to opposing righties throughout his career (.262 this season). He should have no problems with this weak lineup tonight. The only thing keeping him below McCarthy is the price difference and park factor at Miller Park.
FanDuel: Excellent Cash Games Option
DraftKings: Excellent Cash Games Option
Draftster: Excellent Cash Games Option
James Paxton
Vegas loves Paxton tonight, setting him as one of the biggest favorites on tonight's slate along with C.J. Wilson, who I'll get to in a minute. Paxton is the ideal GPP play on tonight's slate due to his depressed price tag and phenomenal matchup. The Twins currently rank 26th in the league against left-handed pitchers with an awful .272 team wOBA. To make matters worse, they have the 3rd-lowest team ISO (.077) against southpaws as well, so the likelihood that Paxton gets tagged with some bombs is even lower tonight when you consider he is pitching in the friendly confines of SafeCo Field. Paxton coaxed an impressive 54.8% GB rate last season, while continuing to keep the ball in the park with a 0.36 HR/9 in 74 innings. He makes for an ideal GPP target tonight.
FanDuel: Excellent GPP Option
DraftKings: Great GPP Option
Draftster: Elite GPP Option
C.J. Wilson
Wilson isn't a pitcher I generally go out of my way to target, but he has a lot of factors going in his favor tonight. He is a monster favorite in Vegas, and he is facing a poor offense in a pitcher's park. The Rangers have actually had some success against lefties this season, with a .323 team wOBA and .167 team ISO. Opposing Colby Lewis is a great spot for any pitcher, and the Angels should have no trouble putting up some runs in support of their lefty tonight. He is a GPP-only option for me tonight, due to the Rangers' success against southpaws, but he has nice upside and is in a great spot for the win.
FanDuel: Good GPP Option
DraftKings: Good GPP Option
Draftster: Great GPP Option
Shelby Miller
Once a huge prospect for the Cardinals, Miller has thrived in his new home in Atlanta through three starts this season. He is sporting an impressive 55.6% groundball rate this season, while not allowing a homer over his first 16 innings. The main thing holding him back tonight is his price tag on FanDuel and his walk rate (10.6% this season). He has mowed down opposing righties to the tune of a .236 wOBA, and makes for a solid play against an anemic Phillies offense. To further the point, the Philles rank dead last in the league against right-handed pitchers, with an embarrassing .246 team wOBA and .098 ISO. They are striking out at a 22.1% clip as well, which only furthers Miller's stock as a GPP play tonight.
FanDuel: Good GPP Option
DraftKings: Great GPP Option
Draftster: Good GPP Option
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