San Diego Padres - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 84.5

The Padres are considered by many to be the winners of the offseason. If nothing else, they were super active and upgraded their offense in a big way. They also added a front-line starter to headline the rotation. The changes are reflected in their projected win total. There is daily baseball value to be had on the Friars.

Park Factors

Petco Park doesn't do hitters any favors finding the seats with left-handed batters having it 3% more difficult to hit homers there than at a neutral park and righties getting docked 19%. Scoring runs is even tougher than reaching the seats with lefties scoring runs 14% less and righties doing so 18% less than at a neutral park. Even doubles/triples are reduced. Pitchers make for a great play in San Diego.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Derek Norris- 40/79

Wil Nieves- 33/79

Derek Norris and Wil Nieves aren't strong pitch framers like last year's duo of Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera, but they aren't dreadful. The downgrade could hurt returning pitchers for the Padres, namely Tyson Ross.

Spring Training Storylines

Who starts at third base?

Yangervis Solarte isn't embarrassing himself this spring, but expect him to serve in a reserve role. Will Middlebrooks has done everything he can to sew up the starting third base job. He's hitting .333/.400/.511 with five walks and nine strikeouts in 45 at-bats this spring. He's ripped a pair of doubles and a pair of homers. At his best, Middlebrooks projects to hit for above average power with a bit of a free-swinging approach. Petco Park isn't a great environment for power -- 81 park factor for homers to right-handed batters -- so Middlebrooks will be best reserved for usage in daily games when he's on the road. He also projects to his down order, which limits his daily game utility.

Who is the fifth starter?

Odrisamer Despaigne was out pitching Brandon Morrow this spring before Morrow suffered a blister on his right ring finger. Morrow will be pitching Tuesday, but he now might be in an uphill battle for the fifth starter spot. Despaigne throws the kitchen sink at opposing hitters mixing a fourseam fastball, sinker, change, slider, curve, cutter and slow curve, according to Brooks Baseball. He throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground, but he lacks the type of put-out pitch necessary to be a big source of strikeouts. He'll be a daily game option at FD or as an SP2 at DK when he's a betting favorite. Morrow throws harder and has greater strikeout potential, so he is a slightly more intriguing arm, but he's rarely been able to turn his power arsenal into results.

2015 Lineup Outlook

Wil Myers is only a couple years removed from being named the Minor League Player of the year by Baseball America while still a member of the Royals organization. He had a solid rookie year with the Rays in 2013, but was injured and struggled last year. In his rookie season, Myers totaled a 128 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. He was even better against right-handed pitchers that season totaling a 132 wRC+, but his minor league track record and right-handedness point to him hitting lefties harder than righties going forward. Petco Park will sap his power, but when he's on the road, Myers makes for a possible bargain hitting atop a talented, revamped lineup.

Yonder Alonso has been a disappointment since being acquired from the Reds in the Mat Latos trade. His power is sub-par for the position, but he does have great plate discipline that has historically resulted in excellent walk rates. His plate discipline crumbled last year, though. If he's able to rebound, he might have some bargain bin value as the two-hole hitter against right-handed pitchers. Beware, Carlos Quentin has been getting reps at first base and could siphon playing time. Quentin's bat is much better than Alonso's, and he'd be a super intriguing option at first base, despite the wealth of offensive options there.

Matt Kemp is a number-three hitter the Padres haven't enjoyed in years. He has above average power that will be sapped at home, but in road venues he'll be a great play against lefties if he's priced right. Since 2012, Kemp's wRC+ versus left-handed pitching would rank tied for 15th among qualified hitters if he had enough plate appearances, and his ISO would rank tied for 21st.

Justin Upton adds more thump to the outfield. He, like Kemp, hammers lefties. Since 2012, he ranks tied for 13th among qualified hitters in wRC+ and 10th in ISO versus southpaws. His offensive output against righties is above average, too, but it lags so far behind what he does against lefties that he's a non-option versus righties under almost any fathomable circumstance. Against lefties, though, I'll be finding room for him on my roster in offensive-friendly parks.

Jedd Gyorko was nicked up last year, and he struggled when on the field. His 78 wRC+ was ugly, but his bat was his carrying tool as a prospect and he posted a .195 ISO in his rookie season in 2013. Even after a year Gyorko would love to forget, he remains an above average hitter overall versus lefties since reaching The Show. If he hits fifth, Gyorko has serious upside against lefties at the hot corner. Corey Brock of MLB.com has recently reported a National League scout was critical of Gyorko's swing being longer and slower. Keep tabs on reports of him ironing out his swing mechanics, because he could be a player on the upswing this year.

Norris stays in the state of California, but changes leagues as a result of being dealt from the Athletics to the Padres. He moves from one homer-suppressing ballpark to another, but he also gets hit in the right-handed batter run park factor department. Having said that, he hits lefties hard and will have some value when facing them. I wouldn't rule out manager Bud Black moving him up to the two-hole when the club is facing a lefty, and Norris would get a huge boost in value with such a move. Regardless, his expertise pummeling lefties makes him a usable option against them even hitting down order. Whether Alexi Amarista or Clint Barmes starts at shortstop, you won't want either on your daily game rosters.

2015 Pitching Outlook

James Shields got paid handsomely to front the Padres rotation. His move from the American League to the National League is a positive, but trading the great defense of the Royals for the poor defense of the Padres negates those gains. Ultimately, Shields value remains largely unchanged from last year. He's posted higher strikeout rates in seasons past, so there is some punch-out upside, and he does a great job of avoiding walks. He's a very good pitcher who isn't a daily game stud, but he's a good pick at both DK and FD.

Andrew Cashner has the goods to strikeout more batters, but he's had success firing sinkers at a high rate and coaxing ground balls. The sinker-heavy approach lends itself to him pitching deep in games and having the potential to factor in more decisions, but it sure would be interesting to see what he'd look like using his slider and changeup more. His current approach makes him a better option on FD than DK -- since DK rewards strikeouts more heavily -- but he's a fine SP2 at DK when the Padres are favored, and especially when he's pitching at home as a favorite.

Tyson Ross has filthy stuff and he parlayed it into a great season. He induced ground balls at a gargantuan 57.0% rate last year, while also blowing hitters away and striking out nearly a batter-per-inning. His walk rate is a little below average, but the total package is damn near fantasy ace quality. He can carry DK rosters with double-digit strikeout totals and zeros posted in the earned run column inning after inning.

Ian Kennedy thrived in his first full year with the Padres. It was a rebound season for him after struggling in 2013 splitting the year with the Diamondbacks and Padres. He reached a new career high in strikeout rate, but his walk rate also rose from his best seasons in the desert. It was a trade off daily gamers would gladly take. His swinging strike rate doesn't completely support his gaudy strikeout rate from last year, but he should continue to best the league average. Beware the downgrade in pitch framers behind the dish, though.

Stock Watch

Up- Will Middlebrooks

Middlebrooks goes from being a forgotten man in Boston to the likely starting third baseman for the Padres. To go from a reserve role to a starting gig means your stock is up. However, his strong spring and the suddenly deep Padres lineup helps net him the up arrow, too.

Down- Tyson Ross

I still love Ross. I should start by stating that. However, as a pitcher who throws a sinker and slider with big movement, he is likely to suffer the most from the change behind the plate this year. Grandal and Rivera were two of the best pitch framers in the majors last year, and his walk rate could suffer with less talented framers catching him.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The stack potential against left-handed pitching is drool inducing, especially if Black move Norris up to second in the order. A 1-through-5 stack of Myers, Norris, Kemp, Upton and Gyorko at a ballpark such as Coors Field against a lefty is nuts. The lineup could be somewhat susceptible to struggling with right-handed pitching, though, and the top right-handed pitchers throwing against them at Petco Park could provide some daily game value.

The run suppressing nature of Petco Park helps all Padres starters. All five, regardless of who wins the fifth starter job, will have daily game value. Another name worth keeping tabs on is Josh Johnson. Johnson is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery, so it's tough to know what he'll have left in the tank. He was very good in his peak, so even if he recaptured only 80% of his previous talent level he'd have daily game value. Overall, this rotation has depth and top end talent.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports