San Diego Padres - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Padres made a bevvy of win-now moves last offseason, but they didn't "win now." They won just 74 games, and the roster is unimpressive on paper. The offense projects to be among the worst in the majors, and the rotation is top heavy. The Padres will be a team to pick on with pitchers throughout the season.

Park Factors

Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league suppressing run scoring by 11% to lefties and righties. Set aside thoughts of it being a ballpark where fly balls go to die, though. Petco Park boosts home runs to left-handed batters by 11% and plays neutrally for homers for right-handed batters. The Padres' decision to move the fences in prior to the 2013 season has shown up in the park factor for homers. Even with more homers leaving the yard in San Diego, pitchers -- even some fly-ball pitchers -- playing in San Diego make for a good daily baseball investment.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Derek Norris - 21/72

Austin Hedges - 4/72

Derek Norris moved up the pitch framing ranks from 2014 to 2015. He ranked 40th out of 79 catchers who caught at least 1,000 pitches in per game pitch framing ranks, according to StatCorner. Norris should hover around average to slightly better than average in per game pitch framing. Austin Hedges, on the other hand, might be a legitimate star receiver. His ability behind the plate has earned him high rankings on top prospect lists, so his strong showing last year shouldn't come as a surprise. When he's in the starting lineup, the pitcher throwing to him gets a nudge upward in value.

Spring Training Storyline

Will Tyson Ross be traded before the season?

There aren't many intriguing position or rotation battles, so I'm stretching for a storyline here. Tyson Ross is a candidate to be traded if the club can't come to a long-term contract agreement with him, though. General manager A.J. Preller isn't shy about making moves, and he orchestrated a blockbuster trade for Craig Kimbrel on opening night of the regular season last year. In other words, just because a move hasn't been made yet doesn't mean he won't agree to a splashy deal much closer to the regular season.

Ross has blossomed into a front-line starter who piles up strikeouts and keeps the ball on the ground at an elite rate. Ross' 61.5% ground-ball rate last year was the third highest among qualified pitchers in 2015, according to FanGraphs. His strikeout rate is supported by an elite swinging strike rate (12.3%, 12th best among qualified pitchers). The righty's slider is a devastating offering that netted a 23.59% whiff rate, per Brooks Baseball. His ERA was nearly a full run lower at home (2.83) than on the road (3.70), but don't be alarmed by a potential move, gamers, his ERA estimators were nearly equal at home (2.96 FIP and 3.08 xFIP) and on the road (2.99 FIP and 3.21 xFIP). His below average control (10.2% walk rate) can result in high pitch counts early and short starts on occasion, but his elite bat-missing ability and elite worm-burning inducing ways more than make up for his spotty control. His skills will travel anywhere, so even if he's dealt, he'll rank as a top-flight daily baseball option.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Cory Spangenberg is a seasoned veteran of 410 plate appearances in the majors. Last year, he walked in a respectable 8.1% of his plate appearances and totaled a .333 OBP. Neither mark screams "hit him leadoff," but neither is bad, either. His legs fit the role, though, and he stole nine bases for the Friars. In his only professional season besting 500 plate appearances (2013), he stole 36 bases in High-A and Double-A combined. He strikes out too much (21.7% strikeout rate in 2015) for a player with well below average power, but his lineup spot and ability to steal bases could make him an infrequent source of salary relief at the keystone position.

Derek Norris was an everyday catcher in his first year with the Padres after platooning behind the plate for the A's the previous three years. The Pad Squad's willingness to use him against righties doesn't mean daily gamers should be married to the idea. He wasn't awful, but his .150 ISO, .297 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against righties last season is no better than punt material if he remains in the two-hole against right-handed pitchers. He hammers lefties, though, and is a truly valuable asset against them. Among qualified hitters since 2013, he ranks 10th in wOBA and eighth in wRC+ against lefties.

Wil Myers can't seem to shake the injury bug. He played in 152 games split between the minors and majors in 2013, but he's fallen short of 100 games played each of the last two seasons. Fortunately, Myers did rebound from a poor injury-plagued sophomore season to at least perform well when he was healthy. In 253 plate appearances last season, he showcased a discerning eye (10.7% walk rate) while hitting for a bit of power (eight homers and .173 ISO). More pressure will be put on his bat this year as he's slated to be the start at first base instead of in the outfield this year. Myers was a highly-touted prospect and won Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year Award in 2012 before winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2013. He has upside -- no doubt about it -- but he needs to do more if he wants to be more than a GPP swerve.

Matt Kemp's first season with the Padres was a mixed bag of good and bad. He reached the seats 23 times, stole 12 bases and his 22.7% strikeout rate was below his career rate and lowest since 2009. Kemp also posted his lowest walk rate (6.0%) since 2007 and turned in a mediocre .178 ISO and .312 OBP. For the second straight year, Kemp played in 150 or more games, so he's stayed healthy after a pair of injury-plagued years in 2012 and 2013. Perhaps the most promising thing to be taken from his numbers is his strong finish. He was terrible in the first half (4.8% walk rate, 24.1% strikeout rate, .132 ISO, .293 wOBA and 87 wRC+), but he raked in the second half (7.7% walk rate, 20.8% strikeout rate, .242 ISO, .369 wOBA and 140 wRC+). At the least, Kemp continues to be a source of frustration for southpaws after totaling a .208 ISO, .354 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against them. If his big second half is a sign of things to come this year, he could once again emerge as a strong option in the outfield in all game types against pitchers of either handedness.

Yangervis Solarte fits the bill of mediocre. In two seasons in the majors, he has a .321 wOBA and 106 wRC+. His power ticked upwards hitting 14 homers with a .158 ISO last year after hitting just 10 with a .109 ISO in his rookie season in 2014. He's not a stolen base threat with only one in the majors, and the switch-hitter has almost no platoon split at all. Solarte's never going to be expensive, so he can serve as a source of salary relief now and again this year, but that salary relief will be tied to a very low ceiling.

Jon Jay moves from a crowded outfield in St. Louis to the polar opposite in San Diego. He's terrible against lefties and the Padres should platoon him, but they don't have an obvious platoon partner at the moment. His work against righties isn't going to get the daily baseball community salivating, either. The outfield is too deep to expect him to be more than a punt at best.

2016 Pitching Outlook

James Shields walked a career-high 9.4% of the batters he faced while allowing the second highest HR/9 (1.47) of his career. He also struck out a career-high 25.1% of batters he faced. Shields was clearly a man of extremes last year. His 12.4% swinging strike rate last season completely supports his strikeout rate, but his career-worst 39.8% zone% (percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone) also supports the bloating of his walk rate. There's not a ton I feel confident making firm declarations about with Shields since he was such a drastically different pitcher last year than in seasons past, but I do feel comfortable saying he's not going to continue to surrender a 17.6% HR/FB rate. Regression to his career mark of 11.7% would go a long way towards him pitching closer to his 2015 xFIP of 3.70 and his SIERA of 3.73 last year. A mid-to-upper-threes ERA projection feels about right, but his ceiling will be determined by how he chooses to attack hitters. If he's once again willing to go out of the zone and coax hitters to chase, he should strike out around a batter per inning again. If, however, he gets back to attacking hitters he should make pare down his walk rate at the expense of some punch outs. Shields will have daily baseball value, but he's one of the hardest pitchers to pinpoint for this season.

After pitching well in 2013 and 2014 but totaling just 298.1 innings in those two years combined, the question wasn't if Andrew Cashner would pitch well, but if he'd stay healthy and pile up innings. He piled up innings, but his ERA was above four. His ERA estimators graded his work more kindly and pegged him as a high-three ERA pitcher, and a .330 BABIP (.292 career BABIP) and 65.6% LOB% (70.8% LOB% for his career) support the notion he was unlucky to some degree. Simply regressing his numbers to his career norms probably is ill advised, though. Cashner inexplicably had zero answer for left-handed batters last year. He faced 375 lefties and allowed a .517 slugging and .383 wOBA. Prior to last year's implosion against lefties, he'd surrendered just a .301 wOBA to 792 lefties faced. Attacking Cashner with lefties out of the gate will probably be a popular move, and I understand it. The contrarian move will likely be taking the discount on Cashner and buying into him rebounding.

Robbie Erlin was roughed up most of the year in the minors. He made 24 starts at the Triple-A level coughing up a 5.24 FIP. The lefty struggled with the long ball (1.58 HR/9) and stranding runners (63.7% LOB%). He's previously struggled to strand runners, and his stuff leaves little room for error. Pass on using Erlin on your rosters.

Colin Rea was awesome in a dozen Double-A starts (2.35 FIP), but he wasn't nearly as impressive in Triple-A (4.65 FIP) or the majors. The rookie right-handed pitcher gave up a ton of hard contact (36.8% hard-hit ball rate), and neither his strikeout rate nor his walk rate were even league average. Attack Rea with hitters as long as he's able to hold down a rotation spot for the Friars.

Stock Watch

Up - Melvin Upton Jr.

Finding a player whose stock is up on the Padres wasn't easy, but Melvin Upton Jr. went from looking like a player who didn't even belong in the majors in his two seasons with the Braves to playing well in a part-time role with the Padres last year. He totaled just 228 plate appearances, but flashed speed (nine stolen bases) and slightly above average power (five homers and .171 ISO). His strikeout rate remained ugly at 27.2% last season, but it was an improvement over his 2013 and 2014 marks. His 9.2% walk rate was solid, too, and it helped him make up for his poor average and turn in a completely acceptable .327 OBP. Upton won't be a cornerstone player on daily baseball teams, but he got back to being a thorn in the side of lefties. In 84 plate appearances against lefties, he earned a 15.5% walk rate with a .169 ISO, .346 wOBA and 124 wRC+. The right-handed hitting outfielder is a poor play against righties, but last year's work against lefties harkened memories of his work against southpaws with the Rays and puts him in the mix in GPPs against them.

Down - Alexei Ramirez

Alexei Ramirez had a nightmarish age-33 season turning in a career-low .279 wOBA and 72 wRC+. He fell below 20 stolen bases for the first time since 2011, and his already underwhelming pop moves from a home park that boosts homers to righties by 12% to one that plays neutrally. Ramirez belongs buried at the bottom of a National League lineup and far far away from daily baseball rosters.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.