San Francisco Giants - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 84.5

The defending World Series Champion Giants project to be an above average team again this year. They had a largely quiet offseason, but their biggest offseason additions could come in the form of injured players returning to prominent roles. The lineup has just one superstar but a handful of other usable options. The rotation, thanks in part to AT&T Park -- more on that soon -- will provide daily gamers options.

Park Factors

AT&T Park is pitcher friendly. It suppresses runs when compared to a neutral park by 9% to lefties and 14% to righties. It's also a nightmare to hit homers in, taking a 33% chunk out of home run production to lefties and a 26% bite out of homer hitting to righties. The staff, as a whole, gets a boost calling this park home.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Buster Posey- 11/79

Hector Sanchez- 35/79

Buster Posey's offense gets rave reviews, and rightfully so. He's a heck of a pitch framer, though, too. Hector Sanchez's defense doesn't get good reviews, yet he's a decent pitch framer. The Giants staff pitches in a great ballpark and they have a great top catcher to throw to, too.

Spring Training Storylines

What will the lineup look like to open the year?

Hunter Pence is recovering from a fractured forearm and isn't expected back until May. In his absence, the Giants will feature a makeshift lineup that remains up in the air. Manager Bruce Bochy has expressed a desire for Nori Aoki nailing down the leadoff gig and Angel Pagan hitting third. The two outfielders aren't star level hitters who can carry daily game teams, but if they are priced cheap, they could have early season bargain value thanks to their slightly above average hitting skills and favorable lineup slots.

Will Jake Peavy carryover his success with the Giants to this year?

Jake Peavy managed an ugly 4.80 FIP in 20 starts for the Red Sox before posting a 3.03 FIP in a dozen regular season starts with the Giants. He won't continue to enjoy the HR/FB luck he did with the Giants, but another season of a sub-4.00 ERA with a low WHIP is attainable. How did he change his fortunes last year? He cut his sinker usage way down, bumped his fourseam fastball usage up, and also threw his cutter more. The veteran right-handed pitcher is reportedly working on a straight changeup in the spring, and his spring training PITCHf/x supports the reports. If Peavy continues to mostly shelve his sinker, he'll be a decent daily game option at FD where his below average strikeout rate plays best. That said, he managed a 10.3% swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs, with the Giants. If he keeps missing wood at that rate, he'll strike more batters out and become a more enticing DK option, too.

2015 Lineup Outlook

When the Giants are fully healthy, Pagan could move back to his customary leadoff spot. He has a strange reverse platoon split since 2012, so he'll be a player who requires a bit more legwork researching before using in daily games. By that I mean understanding the platoon splits of the pitcher he's facing will require more careful scrutiny than with the normal hitter. When he faces a right-handed pitcher who also demonstrates a reverse platoon split, Pagan will make for an especially strong play since he'll be mostly overlooked.

Aoki is yet another strange hitter who has a reverse platoon split. The slap singles hitter has limited value due to his lack of power. However, if he hits second for the Giants, he'll have some runs scored upside and could make for a value pick when the matchup is right. Ideally, he's providing daily gamers big savings to spend heavily elsewhere on their roster.

Posey is the star of the lineup. Whether he hits third or cleanup, he's a well above average hitter who hammers southpaws. He'll have more run production upside than most other catchers, and he'll be a big ticket item worth ponying up for at the offensively thin catcher position when facing a lefty in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Brandon Belt was in the midst of a power breakout in 2014 "Belting" 12 homers with a .206 ISO in 235 plate appearances, but injuries prevented him from a full season of work. His strikeout rate surged to 27.2% and undermined his batting average, but the power was a welcome sight. Against right-handed pitchers in 2014, Belt managed a .240 ISO and 120 wRC+. What his hitting profile looks like this year remains a mystery, but he should be an above average hitter against right-handed pitchers and could be a cheap option for gamers looking to spend more at an offensively scarce position as opposed to first base.

When Pence returns, he could hit anywhere from second through fifth in the order. He's at his best against southpaws. Give him some time to shake the rust off of a lengthy layoff, but when he's back into the swing of things, consider him against lefties when he's away from A&T Park and playing in one of the better offensive environments in the National League -- or the American League during interleague games.

Casey McGehee enjoyed a successful return to the majors with the Marlins after spending 2013 playing in Japan in NPB. He doesn't hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he makes contact at a high rate and is willing to work a walk. In a more favorable lineup slot, his on-base skills -- and the run scoring potential that could come with it -- would make him a potential bargain at the hot corner under the right circumstances.

Joe Panik's contact skills helped him make a smooth transition from the upper minors to the majors filling a big hole at second base for the club. He won't continue to post a .343 BABIP, though, and he lacks the power or speed to be very interesting to daily gamers. If he moves back up to the second spot in the order, he could have some value as a cheap option at the keystone position. That's his ceiling, though, and as a down order hitter he'll rarely be of use to daily gamers.

The left-handed hitting Brandon Crawford's high water mark for wRC+ against southpaws in his first two seasons in the majors was 75 in 2012 and dropped to 55 in 2013. Last year, he exploded for a 152 wRC+ against southpaws and failed miserably against right-handed pitchers (79 wRC+). If he retains some of his massive gains against lefties, he could be a sneaky punt play at shortstop, but he's a non-daily option in the early going of this year.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Madison Bumgarner's postseason heroics were legendary. More importantly to daily gamers, though, is that he's a truly elite pitcher. He's not World Series wunderkind elite, but he's one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Among qualified starters in 2014, Bumgarner ranked 15th in FIP and eighth in K-BB% (20.2%). Since 2012, he's been great at AT&T Park totaling a 25.5% K and 2.84 FIP. The southpaw will be expensive when he starts, but when he's favored at home he'll be an expenditure who's often worth budgeting for.

Matt Cain struggled in his injury-shortened season. He wasn't particularly good in 2013 either. At his best, he beat his ERA estimators and wasn't much of a strikeout source, but with sub-3.00 ERAs it didn't matter. I'm skeptical of him bouncing back to the level of excellence Giants fans enjoyed during his peak years, but he could be an above average pitcher once again. Make him prove it before using him in daily games.

Tim Hudson's pitching success is predicated on pounding the strike zone and keeping the ball on the ground. His strikeout rate is below average, limiting him to DK SP2 status and FD starter when the Giants are favored, but that's not bad. Furthermore, his ability to post a low WHIP annually helps offset his low strikeout rate to a certain extent at DK since pitchers are punished with negative points for hits allowed and walks issued.

Tim Lincecum days in the rotation should be short lived. His lowest ERA in the last three years is 4.37 in 2013. Forget about Cy Young form Lincecum and get on the bandwagon of rooting for Yusmeiro Petit replacing him in the rotation sooner rather than later. Petit's ability to miss bats with his curveball and pound the strike zone will make him a decent option for daily gamers when pitching at home. Have patience, he'll have value this year when he moves into the rotation.

Stock Watch

Up- Brandon Belt

Belt has hit for average in the past (2013) and power (2014). Can he put both together this year? Maybe. If nothing else, a healthy Belt should hit in the heart of the order and have enough run production upside to warrant daily game usage on occasion this year. If he blends his batting average and power, though, the occasions he's used this year will be more frequent.

Down- Casey McGehee

McGehee's strong on-base skills just aren't enough to move the needle in daily games with him projected to hit down order. He had some daily game value last year by hitting cleanup for the Marlins. Now that he's not hitting behind Giancarlo Stanton, McGehee's value has taken a nosedive.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Giants lack stacking potential. If Bochy hits Posey and Pence back-to-back against lefties, the two could be paired when playing in a hitter-friendly park. Posey is the only offensive stud, but the club has some potential value picks and a player, Belt, who could make offensive advancements and become a middle-tier option at first base.

The rotation is headlined by Bumgarner. Like Posey, he's the only star among his group of Giants (i.e. the pitchers). Hudson and Peavy are the most usable options behind the lefty out of the gate for the club, and Cain could join the circle of trustworthy hurlers. The best thing to be said of Lincecum is that he should fork over the fifth starter role before too long, and when he does, Petit will be a potential value pick thanks to his filthy swing-and-miss curve.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports