San Francisco Giants - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Giants were unable to even reach the playoffs a year after winning the World Series, but it's an even year, so obviously they're going to win another World Series this year. Analysis complete, right? Okay, not really. They won 84 games last season and added a pair of big pieces to their rotation in the offseason via free agency. They filled a gaping hole in left field and will be banking on a healthier season from Hunter Pence helping get them over the hump and back to the postseason this year. The offense has one legitimate stud and usable hitters from top to bottom. They are "Royals-like" in that they live on contact and don't rely on the long ball. Their lineup build fits their ballpark perfectly. The rotation has plenty of big names, but one of those big names is coming off of an awful season and another was rather inconsistent, albeit it good overall. The Giants offense is stackable against lefties and righties, and the rotation will provide plenty of daily game options, especially pitching at AT&T Park.

Park Factors

AT&T Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league suppressing runs to lefties by 13% and to righties by 9%. It's also a ballpark that doesn't provide fans with many souvenirs from the field of play as it depresses homers to lefties by a staggering 41% and 21% to righties. This is a great park for using pitchers in.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Buster Posey - 11/72

Andrew Susac - 31/72

Buster Posey's hitting gets most of the attention, but he's an elite all-around catcher and one of the best pitch framers in the business. Posey had an identical rank of 11th in per game pitch framing among catchers who caught at least 1,000 pitches that season, per StatCorner, so this isn't a one-year anomaly. Andrew Susac made big strides behind the dish from his first taste of the majors in 2014 to last year. In 2014, he was a below average framer ranking 59th out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing. The pitchers will have a decided advantage when Posey is catching and Susac is not.

Spring Training Storyline

Who will hit leadoff?

Angel Pagan has primarily hit leadoff for the Giants since they acquired him in 2012 ... when healthy. Health has been an issue for the outfielder, though, as he's played more than 150 games for the Giants just one time (2012) in four years with them. Last year was one of his healthier years as he played in 133 games and totaled 551 plate appearances. They weren't productive plate appearances, however, as he managed just a .070 ISO, .280 wOBA and 81 wRC+. He'd posted no worse than a 113 wRC+ in the previous three years for the Giants, but last season was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for the veteran outfielder. At 34-years old, a rebound is far from certain. He's also in danger of moving from hitting leadoff all the way down to hitting in front of the pitcher in the eighth spot thanks to an offseason acquisition. Pagan's daily value is largely tied to run scoring upside since he has middling power and isn't a big stolen base threat (just a dozen last year). If he hits eighth for the Giants, as the lineup projection suggests he will, there will be little reason to ever use him. If he hits leadoff, he'll have some punt value tied to netting the max number of plate appearances and run scoring upside.

The most obvious option to hit leadoff for the Giants is new left fielder Denard Span. Last year, he played in just 61 games totaling 275 plate appearances, but he was excellent when healthy. The left-handed hitting outfielder walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances, struck out in just 9.5% of his plate appearances and sported healthy totals of a .365 OBP, .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+ while stealing 11 bases. In a fully healthy 2014 season, he did an even better job of raising hell on the bases with 31 stolen bases. His high-contact approach fits the Giants well and the lead-off role, too. Span's a well below average hitter against same-handed pitching counterparts, but he's been excellent against righties in the last three years. He's set new career-highs in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in back-to-back years, and last year that meant a .381 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in 206 plate appearances against righties. Even if Span doesn't hit leadoff, he'll almost certainly be in one of the table-setter spots in the order and have ample run scoring upside to lay claim to in addition to his above average hitting skills against righties and stolen base upside.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Joe Panik's season was ended prematurely last year with back inflammation, but no structural damage. Straight from the horse's mouth, he expects to be ready for Spring Training and is no longer dealing with pain and discomfort. He was viewed by most prospect evaluators as a reach when he was popped in the first round of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft, but he's been quite the selection for the Giants. He played well as a rookie in 2014, but he kicked it up a notch last year swatting eight homers with a 8.8% walk rate, 9.7% strikeout rate, .144 ISO, .363 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Furthermore, his .378 OBP is superb for a table setter. The left-handed hitting second baseman was very good against lefties (11.0% walk rate, .340 wOBA and 122 wRC+) and simply outstanding against righties (.155 ISO, .369 wOBA and 142 wRC+) against right-handed pitchers last season. He doesn't have top-shelf power or even average base stealing skills, but he has multi-hit upside and gets on base frequently from a lineup spot where he has plenty of run scoring upside. Panik's skills play great in cash games and are a fine fit for GPPs, too.

Buster Posey chiefly hit cleanup last season, but he hit third quite often the year before. He'll fit either lineup spot well, but a healthy Hunter Pence should allow manager Bruce Bochy to move Posey up a spot this season. Among qualified catchers since 2013, Posey ranks eighth in ISO (.163), first in wOBA (.364) and first in wRC+ (139). He's been the best offensive catcher, and while Kyle Schwarber (depending on his daily baseball eligibility) could make a run at that claim this year, there's no doubt Posey is a stud. As the stats in the projected lineup table indicate, he's better against lefties than righties. He's a stud against both, though, and he'll frequently be the top option at catcher on a daily basis this season.

Hunter Pence had been something of a modern day iron man prior to last year's injury-plagued season. Pence had never missed more than six games in a year he opened the majors (2008 was his first full season that started in the majors) before playing in just 52 last season. He started the year on the disabled list with a fractured forearm suffered on a hit-by-pitch in the spring, and also battled a strained oblique late in the season. Neither injury projects to linger and cause him problems this season. When he played, he was productive tallying his second highest ISO (.203) of his career along with a .347 wOBA and 127 wRC+. He efficiently stole four bases in five attempts last year and stole 13 in 19 attempts in 2014, so he can sneakily add a bit of value with his legs. The veteran outfielder is coming off of a disastrous season against lefties, but a sample size of 41 plate appearances is nothing to overreact to. Pence is a strong play against lefties and righties in all daily baseball game types in 2016.

Brandon Belt might be the most underrated first baseman in the bigs, but when his own team often hits him outside of a top-five lineup spot, it's hard to find fault with the general public not recognizing how good he's been. Since 2013, among first basemen who've received a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he ranks ninth in wRC+. Belt's home park likely doesn't do his power any favors, but oddly enough, he owns a .168 ISO, .358 wOBA and 143 wRC+ at AT&T Park since 2013, so don't dismiss him immediately when he's at home. First base is deep, but Belt's offensive skills warrant some GPP consideration at times this year against righties and lefties. Dismissing Belt's 51 plate appearances against lefties in 2011, he set new highs in wOBA (.349) and wRC+ (129) against southpaws last year.

Matt Duffy received the majority of his plate appearances hitting third last year. It's certainly possible he could hit much higher in the lineup than I have him projected, however, I believe Bochy will opt to break his lefties and righties up a bit by not hitting Duffy/Posey/Pence back-to-back-to-back in the order, and that leaves Duffy as the odd man out. His highly productive rookie season was completely unexpected and looked vastly different than how he succeeded in the minors. Duffy hit nine homers and stole 25 bases in Low-A and High-A combined in 2013 and hit three homers with 20 stolen bases at the Double-A level with a 10.1% walk rate in 2014. His walk rate was just 4.9% in the majors last season, but he maintained a high-contact approach (15.7% strikeout rate) and set a new single-season high with 12 homers. He was perfect as a base stealer stealing 12 in 12 attempts, but might have a bit more untapped stolen base upside. Duffy looks to be a very good real-life player, but his daily baseball value isn't nearly as exciting. If he hits higher in the order and/or he taps into more of his stolen base upside, his daily baseball value would receive a shot in the arm, but he looks more like an occasional source of salary relief who won't hurt rosters than a game-changer.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Madison Bumgarner is an elite hurler who is more than just a postseason stud. He set career-bests last year in strikeout rate, walk rate (4.5%) and swinging strike rate (12.5%, per FanGraphs) and nearly duplicated his career-bests in xFIP and SIERA set in 2014. He's a workhorse who ranked eighth in innings pitched last year, and among qualified pitchers, he ranked ninth in strikeout rate, fourth in walk rate, 10th in FIP, ninth in xFIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.00). As an added bonus, the Giants ranked second in team defense, according to FanGraphs, and the defense is largely unchanged. Bumgarner's one of the best pitcher in the majors and a great choice in all game types.

Johnny Cueto split his season between playing for the Reds and the Royals. His strikeout rate plummeted from 23.3% in the National League to 16.0% in the American league, but he did cut his walk rate down from 5.6% to 4.9% with the Royals. He wasn't a model of consistency last year as he usually is, and his 4.76 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 4.13 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA with Kansas City aren't the type of numbers he hoped to post heading into free agency. The Giants weren't dissuade from ponying up for his services, and there isn't a scary drop in velocity that raises red flags about his ability to rebound from his poor finish. A bloated .343 BABIP with the Royals appears to be the primary culprit for his struggles along with the drop in strikeout rate. A move back to the National League should aid him in missing bats (10.8% swinging strike rate with the Reds and 8.7% swinging strike rate with the Royals), and he'll have a trio of dreamy factors working in his favor. The first is that he'll be throwing to a top pitch-framing catcher in Buster Posey. The second is that he'll be backed by the second best team defense from 2015. The third is that he'll call a run-suppressing ballpark home. If the daily baseball sites offer a salary discount thanks to his poor finish, jump all over it. Cueto should be a very good daily baseball option in all game types this season.

Jeff Samardzija joins Cueto in moving from an American League Central team back to the National League. Shark pitched well in the American League with the A's in 2014 (3.30 FIP, 2.96 xFIP), but he couldn't duplicate that success with the White Sox. His ground-ball rate dropped off a cliff from 50.2% in 2014 to 39.0% in 2015. He struggled with homers allowing a career-high 1.22 HR/9, and his strikeout rate dropped below 20% for the first time since 2010. He continued to do an excellent job of limiting walks (5.4% walk rate), which is the best number in his statistics. The righty's velocity dropped a bit, but his fourseam fastball and sinker still featured plenty of heat averaging between 94-95 mph, per Brooks Baseball. Shark's splitter's whiff rate dropped from 22.0% in 2014 to 13.65% last year, and he'll need that pitch to rebound in order for him to pump his strikeout rate back up. Shark would have been a great candidate for the down designation in the Stock Watch section, but most pundits seem to be optimistic about him rebounding back in the National League this year, and I can be included in that group. Like I did with Cueto, I'd advise using Shark early and taking advantage of a salary discount. In the case of Samardzija, there's more risk, but that should be attached to a greater discount in salary.

Jake Peavy's 0.98 HR/9 and 7.9% HR/FB created a big disconnect between his 3.58 ERA and his 4.47 xFIP last season. AT&T Park is great for keeping the ball in the yard, but his 37.9% ground-ball rate last year probably should have resulted in more than a homer per nine. The righty managed a career-low 8.0% swinging strike rate and had good fortune on balls in play (.263 BABIP last year and .283 for his career). Peavy is walking a tight rope and likely a high-three to low-four ERA true talent pitcher than a mid-three ERA pitcher. In home-run suppressing venues and against mediocre or worse offenses, Peavy could be a usable value SP2, but he's no better than that and a cliff season is possible.

Stock Watch

Up - Brandon Crawford

Brandon Crawford's glove has been elite, but he built on becoming merely an average hitter in 2014 (103 wRC+). For his career, Crawford has hit 47 homers, and 21 of those homers were belted last year. Before dismissing his power outburst as a complete fluke, it should be noted that Baseball Heat Maps ranked him ninth in average home run and fly ball distance (305.84 feet). I won't pretend to be a scout or talent evaluator, but Eno Sarris of FanGraphs did a great job of breaking down Crawford's adjustments and even included GIFs for good measure. Crawford had a better first half than second half, but he sported a ISO north of .200 in each half and was an above average offensive player in each half as well. His power makes him a GPP asset at the least, regardless of lineup position. If he hits higher in the order than I have him projected, it would help his cash games cause. With Crawford making serious adjustments last year, weighting his 2015 splits more heavily than his three-year splits in the table above is advisable. Last year, Crawford tallied a .168 ISO, .307 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers and a .220 ISO, .341 wOBA and 123 wRC+ against righties.

Down - Matt Cain

There aren't many positives to highlight from Matt Cain's 2015 campaign. Cain struggled with homers (1.78 HR/9), posted his lowest ground-ball rate (35.8%) since 2008 and recorded ugly ERA estimators that line up with his ugly 5.79 ERA. His velocity on his fourseam fastball isn't a far cry from what it was during his peak, and his slider's 15.84% whiff rate last year was a career-high, but he was downright awful and there is no reason to use the veteran righty until he proves he has something left in the tank. For now, attacking him with hitters is the play.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.