Seattle Mariners - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Mariners lurked in the Wild Card picture most of the year but finished with a 76-86 record. They've made some big changes to the roster, but the rotation looks much the same. The offense has some star power and some length. The rotation is intriguing, but there are question marks abound. The projects to be filled with a staggering number of lefties, making them a prime target for using lefty pitchers against. More obviously, they'll also be a strong stacking option against right-handed pitching, namely on the road (more on that momentarily).

Park Factors

Safeco Field is a pitcher's park, without question. It depresses run scoring to lefties by 13% and to righties by 7%. I also suppresses doubles/triples to lefties and righties by an equal 11% and homers to righties by 8%. Left-handed batters get a tiny 4% bump in homers, but that doesn't equally offset the doubles/triples and runs knock. Pitchers get a bump in value in Seattle, and batters should be devalued a bit when playing there.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Chris Iannetta - 8/72

Mike Zunino - 18/72

Chris Iannetta was signed as a free agent, and Mike Zunino isn't actually expected to open the year in the majors. The latter was rushed to the majors and his bat wasn't ready. His pitch framing is strong, though, and he should be on the big league roster at some point this year. Iannetta did a great job of framing for the Angels last season, but it also might be an outlier. He ranked 45th out of 79 catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches in 2014 in per game pitch framing, per StatCorner, and he 61st out of 78 catchers in 2013. Take his great 2015 season of pitch framing with a grain of salt, as he might actually be a slight hindrance to the pitching staff as opposed to the asset his 2015 rank suggests.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will be the fifth starter?

Mike Montgomery might be a "contender" for the last spot in the Mariners' rotation, but the fifth job should ultimately be a battle between James Paxton and Nate Karns. Karns was acquired in an offseason trade at the end of 2015 with the Rays, and he was better than Paxton last year. He bested Paxton in strikeout rate, walk rate and all of the ERA estimators. The righty made 27 appearances (26 starts) and totaled a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.0% walk rate, 4.09 FIP, 3.90 xFIP and 3.90 SIERA. He should be given a fair shot at cracking the rotation, and unlike many number-five starters, he'd be a moderately useful daily baseball option if he wins the job.

Paxton was healthy enough to make just 13 starts spanning 67.0 innings in the majors last year. He pitched in the Arizona Fall League, though, so he'll be fine entering the spring. The lefty struggled to stay healthy in 2014, too, so even if he starts the year in the rotation, he's highly unlikely to reach the 200-innings pitched threshold (He's never done so in professional ball since making his pro debut in 2011). Paxton's control is spotty (9.8% walk rate in 2015), and he hasn't struck out more than 20% of big league batters in a year since his four-start big league debut in 2013. His swinging strike rate has dropped each of the last two years, and while he's done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (48.3% ground-ball rate last year and 52.6% in 30 major league starts for his career), he'll need to improve his strikeout rate in order to be trusted in daily games. His fourseam fastball has averaged around 95 mph in the bigs, per Brooks Baseball, and he backs it with a cutter, changeup and curve. The velocity and pitch mix are intriguing, and each of his secondary pitches had a whiff rate above 14% last year. Paxton has the tools to be better than his surface and underlying stats suggest, but the stuff has never been in question with him, his ability to turn it into results has led prospect evaluators to question his ability to stick in a rotation since he was a promising minor leaguer. Rotations almost never go through a season starting only the five starters who open the year in the rotation, so both Karns and Paxton could and should have daily baseball value on occasion this year.

Will there be a strict platoon at first base and in right field?

Lloyd McClendon was canned as the manager of the Mariners last October, and he's since been replaced by former catcher and former Angels assistant GM Scott Servais. The new manager has no previous managerial experience to analyze and determine his willingness to utilize regular platoons, but since he was hired by Jerry Dipoto, it's highly likely he's willing to trust the numbers and do so. First base and right field (operating under the assumption Nelson Cruz primarily is used as the designated hitter, as he should be) setup perfectly for strict platoons.

Starting with first base, the Mariners traded for Adam Lind. The left-handed batting first baseman is inept against southpaws and shouldn't be in the lineup for the M's when they face one, and if he is mistakenly used against them, there's no reason to ever use him in daily games. He is, however, excellent against righties and should hit in an RBI-friendly spot in the lineup. Lind reached the seats 20 times playing for the Brewers in 2015, but his over-the-fence power will have a bite taken out of it going from playing home games in homer-friendly Miller Park to playing them at Safeco Field. Yes, Seattle's home park bumps homers to lefties by 4%, but that's nothing compared to the 32% boost lefties receive in Milwaukee. Lind's value isn't crippled with the ballpark change since he does a great job of ripping doubles, too. He's tallied a 39.0% hard-hit ball rate or better against righties in each of the last three years and is a fine play against right-handed pitchers, but the wealth of options will make him no better than a tier-two option who provides salary relief even under the best circumstances.

Jesus Montero will never live up to the prospect hype that surrounded him, but he could carve out a role as a lefty killer. He didn't kill lefties last year by any measure (.123 ISO, .253 wOBA and 59 wRC+ in 77 plate appearances) in the majors last year, but the sample size is small. Since reaching the majors in 2011, he has a .137 ISO, .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+ in 340 plate appearances against southpaws. He's, predictably, fared even better against them in the minors. In 92 plate appearances against lefties at the Triple-A level, he totaled a .191 ISO and .388 wOBA against them, per Minor League Central, and in 330 plate appearances against lefties in the minors since 2011, he has a .282 ISO and 1.011 OPS. Again, first base is deep and the opportunity cost of spending down on a player like Montero is high, but he could have some GPP value if his minor league success against lefties translates to the majors this year.

Right field should feature a platoon of Seth Smith and Franklin Gutierrez (Gutierrez could play center field against lefties with Leonys Martin moving over to right field, but the point remains the same). The man formerly known as Death to Flying Things resurrected his career with the Mariners last year after not playing during the entire 2014 season and struggling mightily in 2013. He annihilated lefty offerings last year sporting a .298 ISO, .411 wOBA and 168 wRC+ with eight homers in 112 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He owns a career .200 ISO, .360 wOBA and 126 wRC+ in 958 plate appearances against lefties dating back to 2005, yet because his defense gets most of the attention, he might slip under the radar a bit in GPPs.

Smith has posted a wRC+ of 120 of better in four of the last five years with a 109 wRC+ in 2013 serving as the low-water mark. He's not a big home run threat even dating back to his days with the Rockies, but he can find the seats on occasion and does his damage with with in the park extra base power and patience. He's walked in 10.8% of his plate appearances in his career against righties and bested an 11% walk rate against them in three of the last four years. The total package has resulted in a .356 OBP against righties in his career and a .343 OBP against them last year. He has an unexciting ceiling, but a high-ish floor for a platoon guy that is usable in all game types as salary relief.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Kyle Seager has hit 20 or more homers in four straight years, every full season in the majors for him. He hit fifth much of the beginning of the year, a position befitting his power and run production skills, but he actually tallied the majority of his plate appearances (343) in the two-hole. In order to split up some of their best lefties, the team should once again use Seager primarily in the second spot in the order serving as the first piece of bread in the lefty-righty-lefty lineup sandwich around Nelson Cruz. Seager hit a career-high 26 homers last year, but something else interesting happened for him in 2015. After being a liability against lefties from 2011-2014 (.140 ISO, .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+ in that time frame), he gave lefties hell in 2015 (13 homers, a .214 ISO, .357 wOBA and 131 wRC+ in 241 plate appearances). He's unlikely to remain that good against lefties, but the fear of a late-inning at-bat against a lefty reliever being close to an auto-out is clearly no longer the case. Seager's a better play in GPPs against lefties than cash games against them since his track record doesn't support the offensive outburst. The third baseman turned in his worst offensive season against righties in 2015 (.168 ISO, .322 wOBA and 107 wRC+), but he also struck out in a career-low 12.1% of plate appearances against them and bested the 10% walk threshold against righties for just the second time in a year in his career. Seager should bounce back closer to his 2012-2014 numbers against righties (.186 ISO, .358 wOBA and 133 wRC+) since he's in the prime years of his career and there aren't any obvious reasons in his numbers that support his drop in production against them last year. Seager's a strong option in all game types when facing a right-handed pitcher.

Nelson Cruz is an offensive stud. He had a career year with the Orioles in 2014, and many onlookers viewed him as an obvious regression candidate going from playing home games at Camden Yards to playing them at Safeco Field. Toss in that players coming off of a career season at the age of 33/34 are easy targets to bark regression claims at, and what he did last year becomes even more difficult to wrap your head around. Cruz was better in 2015 than in 2014, and not simply after adjusting for the difference in park factors, the raw numbers were better, too. He hit a career-high 44 homers with a .396 wOBA and career-high 158 wRC+. He was awesome against righties last year (.244 ISO, .371 wOBA and 141 wRC+), and his three-year stats in the table speak for themselves. The veteran is at his best against lefties, though, and one of the best lefty mashers in the bigs. Last year he posted an eye-popping .315 ISO, .459 wOBA and 202 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances against lefties, and since 2013, he ranks tied for fifth in ISO, fourth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ against lefties among qualified hitters. Queue him up against lefties with regularity this year, and enjoy the show.

It turns out the sky is falling attitude about Robinson Cano's rough first half (.118 ISO, .287 wOBA and 83 wRC+) was unwarranted as he turned it on in the second half (.209 ISO, .395 wOBA and 157 wRC+). His power isn't what it was playing in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium, but he remains a thorn in the side of righties (.349 wOBA and 126 wRC+ against them last year). Even entering his age-33 season, Cano remains one of the most offensively gifted two-baggers in the majors and a strong play in all game types against right-handed pitchers.

Nori Aoki spent a single season with the Giants and goes from one pitcher-friendly venue to another. He only played in 93 games and recorded 392 plate appearances, but he was still able to make a bit of noise on the bases with 14 stolen bases in 19 attempts. The efficiency was a welcomed sight after a pair of inefficient seasons that followed his 30 stolen bases in 38 attempts in his first year in MLB in 2012. He's a contact-oriented hitter who frequently slaps at the baseball, and that's reflected by his sub-.100 ISO against lefties and righties since 2013. The left-handed hitting outfielder has a big reverse platoon split, as the table shows. His career .376 OBP against lefties and above average speed would play well in the lead-off role when a southpaw toes the rubber, and he'll probably battle Ketel Marte for that role. Unfortunately, Marte, too, was better against lefties than righties in the minors, so it doesn't necessarily make sense to use Aoki and Marte in a split lead-off role. Aoki's daily baseball value will be tied to his lineup spot, and if he hits down order his value won't be that great. If, however, he hits leadoff, then his value will receive a shot in the arm.

Chris Iannetta has a traditional platoon split that favors facing southpaws. The right-handed hitting backstop has above average power against lefties and a very discerning eye. In 388 plate appearances against lefties since 2013, he has a 16.0% walk rate that fuels a robust .379 OBP.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Felix Hernandez has set the bar extremely high for expectations, and his "down year" in 2015 illustrates that. For most pitchers, a 3.72 FIP, 3.33 xFIP and 3.38 SIERA would qualify as a great year, but not King Felix. His 3.53 ERA was his worst since 2007 and his ERA estimators were his worst marks in recent years, too. Even in a bad year by his standards, King Felix ranked 25th in strikeout rate among qualified starters and his 56.2% ground-ball rate ranked tied with Jake Arrieta for the fourth highest mark. Hernandez's velocity isn't out of line from recent years and he still has an embarrassment of riches in his pitch repertoire. He's still an elite starter.

Hisashi Iwakuma returns to the Mariners after the Dodgers pulled out of a deal when he failed their physical. The failed physical provides reason for pause, but the Mariners inked him to a one-year contract worth $10 million with a pair of team options that vest after hitting innings pitched thresholds, per FanGraphs. The contract signed with the Mariners alleviates some concerns about Iwakuma's health. The veteran righty made only 20 starts for the Mariners after beginning the season on the disabled list, but he was his normal self upon return pounding the strike zone (4.4% walk rate) and inducing grounders (50.4% ground-ball rate) while netting a healthy number of punch outs thanks in large part to his filthy splitter. Iwakuma's a bit homer prone, and his 15.3% HR/FB rate last year shouldn't be viewed as flukey since it's not a far cry from his career rate of 13.8%. The righty is an excellent pitching option in all game types.

The Red Sox didn't get what they hoped to from Wade Miley in his lone year with them, and they've divested themselves of him by sending him to the Mariners. Miley's a bit of a mixed bag. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (48.8% ground-ball rate last year after posting ground-ball rates in excess of 51% in 2013 and 2014). He's also tallied a league average walk rate in two of the last three years. Unfortunately for him, his swinging strike rate plummeted from 9.7% in 2014 to 8.3% last year. The result was a nearly 3.5% drop in his strikeout rate. The southpaw has been very good against lefties in his career (.296 wOBA allowed), but the same can't be said about how he's fared against righties (.328 wOBA allowed for his career and a .331 wOBA allowed in back-to-back years). Between pitching for the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox, he's always called a hitter-friendly park home, and the move to Seattle could help him a great deal this year. He'll be of some use in daily games this year when the matchup is right, but he's not the type of pitcher gamers can trust in all matchups, and his ceiling isn't high.

Taijuan Walker is only 23-years old and has 222.2 innings in the majors under his belt. He was inconsistent and a boom-or-bust hurler last year with eight starts in which he allowed five or more earned runs and 10 starts in which he allowed one earned run or fewer. His right arm is a lively one that fires fastballs averaging 94-95 mph. He can slow things down, too, dropping in a hammer curve with an average velocity of 74.56 mph last year, according to Brooks Baseball. He blows his heater by hitters (10.03% whiff rate last year) and can get them to fan on his curve (10.34% whiff rate) and split (17.88% whiff rate), too. Overall, his 10.0% swinging strike rate was a tiny bit above the league average, and it supports his better than league average strike rate. The young righty is just beginning to scratch the surface of what he's capable of, and his upside is immense, but there will likely still be some hiccups along the way. He opens the year as a strong GPP option who could emerge as a reliable option in all game types.

Stock Watch

Up - Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte stopped the revolving door at shortstop for the Mariners and thrived starting for them down the stretch last year. The switch-hitting middle infielder's stock is on the rise, and his 9.7% walk rate and above average speed (eight stolen bases for the Mariners and 20 more in 65 games and 287 plate appearances at the Triple-A level last year) plays well at the top of the order. Marte's minor league walk rates fall well short of his mark in the majors last year, but the youngster didn't stray out of the strike zone often (27.0% swing rate on pitches out of the zone compared to 31.3% for the league average, per FanGraphs), so regression to his walk rate might not be cripplingly harsh this season. The switch-hitter was better against righties than lefties in the majors last year, but that differs from his minor league track record. The sample in the majors is small, so gamers should put a bit more stock in his minor league track record and view him as a better play against lefties than righties. Shortstop added some reinforcements in the form of Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager last year, but the position isn't loaded with offensive talent, and if Marte hits in front of the talented trio of Kyle Seager, Cruz and Cano as the M's lead-off hitter, he'll be in the daily mix thanks to his run-scoring upside and speed.

Down - Leonys Martin

Yuck. That succinctly describes Leonys Martin's 2015 season. He posted sub-90 wRC+ marks in his first two full seasons in the majors, but he helped offset that by stealing 36 bases in 2013 and 31 in 2014. Last year, he stole only 14 bases and his wRC+ cratered and finished at 50. Again, yuck. Swap playing home games in Globe Life Park in Arlington for Safeco Field, and you've got yet another reason to turn your nose up to Martin in daily games this year.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.