2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Cardinals led the majors in wins last year and were the only team to reach the magic number of 100 wins. Their postseason stay was short, though, as they were bounced in the Division Series by the Cubs. St. Louis battled significant injuries in 2015 and their regular season record was nothing short of remarkable. This season, they feature a roster that lacks an elite level hitter but features depth, and the rotation also lacks a bonafide daily baseball stud but has depth and talent, too. They'll be a source of daily baseball options at a wide variety of price points throughout the 2016 season.

Park Factors

Park Factors LHB RHB
K 89 94
BB (Unintentional BB + HBP) 94 97
1B 101 99
2/3B 100 106
HR 84 89
Runs 98 96
gbH (Gbs turning into hits/errors) 99 102
ofH (Outfield Fbs, excluding HR, turning into hits/errors) 99 98
GB 101 101
FB 107 106
LD 104 98
IF 116 117

Busch Stadium plays a few ticks below a neutral park and is slightly pitcher-friendly docking lefties 2% in runs scored and righties 4%. The bigger impact the park has is on home runs reducing them by 16% to lefties and 11% to righties. The park fits the lineup of the Cardinals well, however, as much of the pop in the lineup is of the doubles variety and righties receive a 6% boost to doubles/triples. Offenses that aren't reliant on the long ball will play well at Busch Stadium, and fly-ball pitchers are a strong play thanks to the home-run suppressing nature of the park.

Projected Lineup

Lineup Spot Name Handedness Position Since '13 vs LHP ISO Since '13 vs RHP ISO Since '13 vs LHP wRC+ Since '13 vs RHP wRC+
1 Matt Carpenter L 3B .158 .169 115 132
2 Stephen Piscotty R RF .186 .190 141 130
3 Matt Holliday R LF .178 .169 150 132
4 Jhonny Peralta R SS .206 .140 134 109
5 Randal Grichuk R CF .234 .248 111 135
6 Brandon Moss L 1B .165 .231 103 121
7 Yadier Molina R C .118 .114 106 105
8 Kolten Wong L 2B .077 .139 69 94
9 Pitcher N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

Rotation Spot Name IP K% FIP
1 Adam Wainwright 28 18 2.13
2 Michael Wacha 181.1 20.1 3.87
3 Jaime Garcia 129.2 19 3.00
4 Mike Leake 192 15.3 4.20
5 Carlos Martinez 179.2 24.4 3.21

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Yadier Molina - 29/72

Brayan Pena - 53/72

Yadier Molina has a cannon for an arm and does a superb job of controlling the running game. Don't be a dolt and assume he's a great pitch framer, though, because he's not. He ranked a bit above average in 2015 and ranked just one spot higher, 28 out of 79 catchers, in 2014. Brayan Pena ranked well below average last year, but in 2014, he ranked 22nd out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing value. Neither catcher projects to move the needle much either positively or negatively for the starters.

Spring Training Storylines

Who will start at first base?

The Cardinals failed to get much production out of first base last year. This season, they're hoping Brandon Moss can bounce back from a down year or Matt Adams can improve after missing much of last year due to injury. There is no platoon to be formed between the two as both are left-handed hitters who struggle with southpaws. Without the luxury of a designated hitter, the loser of the competition for first base duties will be strictly a reserve. Moss has corner outfield experience, so he could conceivably spell the corner outfielders and spell Adams at first base if the younger slugger wins the job. Moss appears to be the slight favorite, but not a huge favorite by any measure.

Moss underwent hip surgery prior to last year, and he never was able to truly get into the swing of things with the Indians or the Cardinals. Moss hit 19 homers last year, and that snapped a three-year streak of hitting 20 or more long balls in the majors. It's conceivable that a full season of normal preparation and opening the year in good health will allow him to rebound. He is a patient slugger who piles up punch outs (10.% walk rate and 26.2% strikeout rate against righties since 2013). A rebound to pre-surgery form would make him a cheap source of power, and he might carry both first base and outfield eligibility at DraftKings.

Adam's production has been sliding since his rookie season in the majors in 2013 (he debuted in 2012 but didn't play enough to lose his rookie eligibility). The 27-year-old first baseman smacked 17 homers with a .220 ISO, .365 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in his rookie campaign, but all of those marks slipped in year two and dropped further last year. He's a total dud against lefties, and a sub-.200 ISO against righties over the last two years simply doesn't cut it for a first baseman with a good-but-not-great OBP (.356 in 2013, .349 in 2014 and .283 last season). The lefty owns a sub-6% walk rate against righties in his career. Unless he's unjustly thrust into a prominent lineup role or he makes big strides this year, he's a lower-level first base option against righties who's in danger of being lifted for a pinch hitter when facing a lefty reliever later in contests.

Will Carlos Martinez be ready by Opening Day?

Carlos Martinez was doing a great job of turning those skeptical that his slight frame couldn't hold up for a full season's worth of work as a starter into believers last year, and then he was shutdown with a shoulder injury late in the year. Around a week ago, he estimated that he's at "90%." The Cardinals project him to be ready by the beginning of camp without any restrictions. He'll continue to be dogged by questions about his ability to hold up under a starter's workload, but his results while healthy last year were excellent.

Among qualified pitchers last year, Martinez's 54.5% ground-ball rate was tied for the seventh highest in the league. He also ranked tied for 17th in strikeout rate, 20th in FIP, 19th in xFIP (3.28), 21st in SIERA (3.44) and 24th in swinging strike rate (10.5%). Despite his small stature, he throws harder than most hurlers. Among starters who threw a minimum of 200 pitches for the pitch in question, Martinez ranked fifth in average fourseam fastball velocity (96.76 mph) and sixth in average sinker velocity (95.85 mph), according Baseball Prospectus. When he's not blowing his heater past hitters, he's clowning them with his changeup or slider. According to Brooks Baseball, his change featured a 23.55% whiff rate and his slider checked in with a 14.18% whiff rate last year. The changeup's whiff rate was a marked improvement over 2014 (19.85%), but the slider dipped from 24.12% in 2014. It's scary to think what Martinez is capable of if he's able to miss a few more bats with his slider in 2016 than he was able to last season. The diminutive flame thrower allowed a .329 wOBA to left-handed batters and ate righties alive allowing just a.276 wOBA. He has the pitch mix to keep lefties in check, and that gives him wiggle room to improve this year. In a rotation that also features Adam Wainwright, it's no small compliment to declare that Martinez is actually the hurler with the most upside on the staff.

2016 Lineup Outlook

The Cardinals seem to possess a never ending pipeline of homegrown hitters, and Stephen Piscotty is the latest feather in the cap for the scouting and development staff of the Red Birds. Piscotty raked in the minors and didn't skip a beat in the majors. In 256 plate appearances across 63 games he walked at a league average 7.8% rate while hitting for a bit above average power (.189 ISO). The total package was a .364 wOBA and 133 wRC+, and his .359 OBP will play perfectly from a table setter spot in the order. The right-handed hitter demonstrated a small platoon split, as the table above illustrates, but he was well above average against either handedness of pitcher. Digging into his minor league numbers reveals a reverse platoon split, but nothing major. He played in 11 games at first base last year, but the bulk of his playing time came in his natural position in the outfield, and that's where he projects to play this year. The outfield is deep, but Piscotty has both an above average bat and cushy lineup spot working in his favor. His power is only slightly above average -- though, he surprisingly ranked 13th in average home run and fly ball batted ball distance, according to Baseball Heat Maps -- and he's not much of a stolen base threat, so his upside isn't through the roof, but he's a daily baseball option against lefties and righties in all game types. Furthermore, his batted ball profile fits Busch Stadium perfectly since he's a line-drive hitter as opposed to a homer-seeking fly-ball machine.

Usually healthy Matt Holliday missed a lot of time last year and played in just 73 games. His right quadriceps landed him on the disabled list twice. Holliday's power drop continued its slide and has gone down every year since 2010, but it's possible the lingering quadriceps injury took some starch out of his bat. Still, he hasn't eclipsed a .200 ISO since 2012, and Holliday no longer possesses the ceiling he once had. He did, however, hit at least 20 homers every year from 2006 through 2014, and does have plenty of run and RBI upside hitting third for the Cardinals. In other words, it's not as if he's bereft of upside, and he did turn in the highest walk rate (14.4%) of his career last season. His .394 OBP last year would have ranked seventh among qualified hitters, and the fact much of his high OBP is derived from his ability to works walks elevates his floor and smooths out some volatility, making him a great cash games target. He hammers lefties and righties alike, though, his production was down against lefties last year. Chalk his lackluster year against lefties up to a small sample and an off year, and feel free to roster him against southpaws and righties alike this season.

Jhonny Peralta's 2015 season was a tale of two halves. In the first half, he was responsible for a .176 ISO, .355 wOBA and 127 wRC+. His production went down the toilet in the second half as he managed just a .082 ISO, .277 wOBA and 74 wRC+. His walk rate dropped a tiny bit (8.3% in the first half and 7.1% in the second half), but his strikeout rate remained nearly identical. Interestingly, he actually had fewer balls in play classified as soft-hit balls in the second half than in the first, and his hard-hit ball rate dropped just 1% from 32.3% to 31.3% in the second half. The most notable difference in his batted ball numbers is a sizable downturn in pull percentage (45.3% in the first half and 38.9% in the second half). After combing through all of the numbers, the second half collapse looks more flukey than cause for concern. He was slightly better against righties than lefties last season, but his three-year numbers favor facing lefties, and I'd advise using the larger sample size to guide your daily baseball decision making on rostering Peralta early in the year. Shortstop received an influx of young talent last year, but Peralta remains well above average offensively compared to most of his peers. The added depth to the position could also help suppress his ownership in GPPs, making him even more desirable to own in those contests.

In the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft, the Angels owned the 24th and 25th picks. They selected some guy named Mike Trout with the 25th pick, and prior to last year, it could be argued that Randal Grichuk was as well known for being the player picked directly in front of Trout as he was for his own minor league exploits. Grichuk underwent sports hernia surgery, but he's expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training, according to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. The 24-year-old outfielder hit 20 or more homers in the minors in each season from 2012-2014, and he received a 116 plate appearance cup of coffee for the Cardinals in 2014. He was a bit overwhelmed, but he stepped up when needed last year and swatted 17 homers with a .272 ISO in 350 plate appearances. His power is legit, too. He ranked 23rd in average home run and fly ball average distance, and he ranked fourth in average fly ball and line drive exit velocity among batters with a minimum of 100 at-bats, per Baseball Savant. He can really punish mistakes, but his approach leaves a lot to be desired with just a 6.3% walk rate and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Grichuk has a reverse platoon split in the majors, as the table above shows, but that's in stark contrast to his minor league work. Since 2011, he has a .284 ISO, just a 16.2% strikeout rate and .954 OPS against southpaws in 464 plate appearances in the minors, according to Minor League Central. His work against righties is far less impressive, and in that time frame, he has a .182 ISO, 19.6% strikeout rate and .736 OPS against righties. Grichuk's power puts him in play against either handedness pitcher in GPPs, but trust the larger sample size of work in the minors and consider him a far better play against southpaws.

Kolten Wong isn't demanding a move to the top of the order, but he's voiced a desire to have the opportunity to hit there. With Carp's power outburst last year (more on that below), it's possible he could be ticketed for a run-production spot in the lineup. If that's the case, Wong could be a candidate to hit leadoff, and such a move would greatly enhance his value. Having said that, his 2014 production doesn't scream leadoff hitter. His .321 OBP was only four points above the league average and his 5.9% walk rate was actually 1.8% below the league average. He did slightly improve offensively from 2014 to 2015, though, so another small step in the right direction would make him a defensible leadoff option ... at least against righties. Last year, he sported a dreadful .048 ISO, .246 wOBA and 52 wRC+ against southpaws. There's no reason to use him against lefties for now. He was pretty darn to against righties, however, with a .156 ISO, .335 wOBA and 114 wRC+. He has some stolen base skills in his tool belt, too, with 15 in 23 attempts last year and 35 in 47 attempts over the last two years combined. His daily value largely hinges on his lineup spot. If he hits down order, he's a tough sell in cash games, even against righties.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Adam Wainwright was able to make just seven appearances (four starts) in the regular season for the Cardinals last year. That's the bad news. The good news is that the injury that sidelined him most of the year wasn't arm related (torn Achilles). Perhaps the lack of wear and tear on his arm could be a blessing in disguise this year, as his strikeout rate in 2014 was his first under 20% (19.9%) since 2008. Waino's control is exquisite, and outside of his 46.3% ground-ball rate in 2014, he'd hovered around 50% in each year since 2009 (51.2% ground-ball rate last year). He's probably not going to pitch as his peak form this year, but he's an innings horse who limits baserunners (1.04 WHIP last year and 1.03 in 2014) and isn't a total dud in the strikeout department. His ceiling isn't what it once was, but he's still very good.

Michael Wacha got off to a fast start where his ERA was far better than his ERA estimators, but the gap closed by season's end. His ERA was still about a half point better than all of his ERA estimators, though, and there isn't anything in his underlying stats that hints at him being able to maintain that gap. Wacha might open the year a bit overrated thanks to his solid surface stats, but he's more of a good pitcher than a great one. His ground-ball rate is ho-hum (45.8% last year), and his swinging strike rate (9.5%) was below the league average. He also doesn't have a great put-away pitch with his changeup generating the best whiff percentage (17.72%), per Brooks Baseball, of all of his pitches. He does do a decent job of missing bats with his fourseam fastball, curve and cutter, though, none are elite bat-missing pitches. The depth of his arsenal could help him offset the lack of a nasty out-pitch, and I'd expect him to post a strikeout rate in line with last year's mark. The righty will have daily baseball value, for sure, but temper expectations.

The 20 starts Jaime Garcia made last year were his highest total since making an identical number of starts in 2012, and his 129.2 innings pitched in the majors were his highest total since 2011. It's no secret that Garcia struggles to stay healthy. Like Wacha, his ERA was considerably better than his ERA estimators, but Garcia was also a much better pitcher than his right-handed rotation mate. Garcia pounded the strike zone with just a 5.9% walk rate, and his 61.9% ground-ball rate in 2015 was elite and would have ranked as the third highest among qualified pitchers if he'd tallied enough innings to be a qualified pitcher. The lefty's slightly below average swinging strike rate (9.2%) supports his slightly below average strikeout rate, but it's still a decent rate and more than made up for by his excellent control and elite worm-burner inducing ways. The veteran lefty was slightly more giving to lefties than righties last season, but that's relatively speaking, and he was awesome against either handedness of hitter (.282 wOBA allowed to lefties and .248 wOBA allowed to righties in 2015). Garcia isn't sub-2.50 ERA good, but a low-3 ERA (his career mark is 3.31) is a fair expectation, and Garcia is a desirable hurler to roster in daily games.

Mike Leake's formula for success is a simple one, and it's not an exciting one for daily baseball purposes. He pitches to contact, limits free passes (6.3% walk rate last year) and keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate (51.8% ground-ball rate). Oddly, defense-reliant Leake pitched better with the Reds than the Giants, despite the Giants earning the second best team defense grade at FanGraphs and the Reds checking in ranked 22nd last year. The Cardinals basically split the difference ranking 11th. Leake's a low-ceiling pitcher whose value is matchup dependent. Lefties have roughed him up a bit in his career tallying a .334 wOBA against him, but he's tough-ish on righties allowing a .311 wOBA to them.

Stock Watch

Up - Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter, line-drive hitting wizard, basically re-invented himself last year. He remained one of the most patient hitters in the game walking in a fantastic 12.2% of his plate appearances (he's walked in 10% or more of his plate appearances every year in The Show), but he traded some contact for power. He struck out in a career-high 22.7% of his plate appearances, but he also swatted a career-high 28 homers (three more homers than he'd hit in the previous three years combined) with a career-high .233 ISO (previous high was .169). Sticking with the theme of career highs, Carpenter tallied a new high in line-drive rate (28.5%), fly-ball rate (41.7%), HR/FB rate (15.8%) pull percentage (39.3%) and hard-hit ball rate (36.8%). Banking on a player repeating career highs, especially a 30-year-old player, is foolish, but his power outburst is supported by the batted ball data. He remains one of the best on-base hitters in the game ranking 24th among qualified hitters last year with a .365 OBP. His new found power could bump him from the leadoff role, though, as his bat is now that of a run producer who belongs in the middle of the order. For now, he projects as the leadoff hitter, but a move to third or fourth would benefit Carpenter by awarding him both run scoring and RBI upside. Carpenter has a huge platoon split, and while he's an above average hitter against lefties, he's best used against righties since he's a stud facing them.

Down - Yadier Molina

Father Time is undefeated, and he appears to be taking his toll on Yadier Molina. Molina's ISO dipped below .100 for the first time since 2010, and his wRC+ dropped to 80, his lowest mark since that same 2010 season. His three-year run of offensive excellence from 2011 through 2013 looks like his last hurrah as a highly productive offensive player. He's hit just 11 homers over the last two years combined, and his batting average has dropped below .285 the last two years. Molina's 33-years old and there's no reasonable reason to think he'll bounce back to more than an average at best hitter. He's also likely ticketed for a down-order lineup spot (either seventh or eighth), which hurts his run and RBI potential while also awarding him fewer plate appearances than hitters in better lineup spots. Occasional punt value is where Molina's value lies these days.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.




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