Texas Rangers - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2016

2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook

The Rangers won the American League West with 88 wins, but they were bounced in the Division Series by the Toronto Blue Jays. Considering they were without their ace for the entire season, simply reaching the postseason was an accomplishment. The offense features some veterans with lengthy track records of success and youngsters with untapped upside. The rotation will receive a shot in the arm with the return of their ace, but it's top heavy. The Rangers have decent stackability -- depending on how the lineup is arranged -- but with Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland both only first base eligible on the DraftKings, a full 1-though-6 stack isn't possible.

Park Factors

Globe Life Park in Arlington is an offensive-friendly venue bumping runs to lefties by 9% and righties to 5%. The Wrigley Field write-up came with plenty of disclaimers, and the Globe Life Park in Arlington comes with one as well. The ball carries farther in warm conditions -- and that's not just hot air, bad pun intended. When it heats up in the summer months, the ballpark can go from suppressing homers to lefties by 3% and playing neutral to righties for homers to being a homer-friendly venue. Making note of the weather is a good habit for all games and parks, but in the dog days of summer, you'll want to pay extra attention to the temperature in Texas for games at Globe Life Park in Arlington.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

2015 Statistics used

* 2014 pitching statistics

Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks

Robinson Chirinos - 39/72

Chris Gimenez - 33/72

Last year, the catching duo of Robinson Chirinos and Chris Gimenez were about as average at pitch framing as a duo could be. They didn't really help or hurt the rotation with their work behind the dish. The year before, Chirinos ranked 54th out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing value among catchers who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches. Gimenez ranked 14th out of 79 catchers that year. Treat them as average framers, but recognize that the starters might get a slight bump in value when Gimenez starts.

Spring Training Storyline

Can Joey Gallo press for playing time in left field?

The left field job is Josh Hamilton's, but to say he's been a disappointment the last three years would be a gross understatement. He's played in just 139 games the last two years combined and slugged 18 homes in 563 plate appearances during that time frame. His ISO has been under .190 each of the last three years, and his strikeout rate's surged to a career-high 28.6% while his walk rate dipped to a career-low 5.5% last season. Hamilton is 34-years old and his career trajectory doesn't provide optimism for him being a daily baseball asset this season. That said, he has plus raw power and nothing about Hamilton's career has been normal. His pop could put him in play in GPPs, but his strikeout rate and poor plate discipline leave that as his likely ceiling ... and his floor is ineptitude or injury opening the door in playing time in left field.

If Hamilton struggles, how long will his leash be and could the reigns be turned over to Joey Gallo? Gallo struggled in 228 plate appearances at the Triple-A level (39.5% strikeout rate and 90 wRC+), but his raw power was on display (.255 ISO and 14 homers). His story was basically the same in the majors. In 123 plate appearances for the Rangers he swatted six homers with a .213 ISO, but his 46.3% strikeout rate was his undoing. Gallo is a patient hitter who's walked in more than 11% of his plate appearances at every professional stop (save for 21 plate appearances in Rookie ball). He'll always be a strikeout liability, but a Chris Davis-like profile lurks within Gallo. More seasoning at the Triple-A level is probably in order since he struggled there initially and lacks a clear path to everyday playing time in the majors, but it could be a short stay and Gallo's thunderous stick makes him at least a GPP consideration when he does play for the Rangers, in left field or elsewhere on the diamond.

2016 Lineup Outlook

Shin-Soo Choo's first season with the Rangers didn't go according to plan, but he looked more like the player the team thought they were signing in tallying a 11.6% walk rate and .375 OBP. He settled into the two-hole as a great table setter, but his extreme platoon split remains in play. Last year, he crushed righties (.400 OBP, .218 ISO, .396 wOBA and 148 wRC+ with 16 homers in 405 plate appearances). His struggles in 2014 look like an outlier, and Choo makes for a strong daily baseball option in all game types when the Rangers face right-handed pitching this season.

Prince Fielder, like Choo, didn't get off to the start with the Rangers that the club hoped for. In Fielder's case, and injury was to blame, and not just any injury. Fielder required neck surgery in 2014, and there were legitimate questions about how he'd perform last year. The good news is that he played very well. The big man smacked 23 homers with a strong walk rate (9.2%), small strikeout rate (12.7%) and overall good numbers. His power isn't what it once was, though, with just a .158 ISO. Fielder was a below average offensive player against lefties, but he raked against righties (.416 OBP, .392 wOBA and 146 wRC+). That said, his power isn't exciting like it once was, and his upside is largely tied to runners getting on for him to drive in. Thankfully, Fielder should frequently have ducks on the pond, but he isn't as easy a player to roster in a game with a low team over/under total as he once was, because his odds of reaching the seats aren't what they once were.

Adrian Beltre hurt his thumb back in late May, and he's undergone surgery to remove scar tissue. He's expected to be ready by the start of Spring Training. He struggled to play with the thumb injury in the first half (.140 ISO, .293 wOBA and 77 wRC+), but he turned it on in the second half (.190 ISO, .378 wOBA and 136 wRC+). He's aging like a fine wine, and his second half numbers are all the more remarkable when recognizing he was playing with a hurt thumb. He's still one of the best offensive players at the hot corner and goes from a solid, above average option against righties to a stud when facing lefties.

Mitch Moreland is coming off of a career year. He remains a liability against lefties, but his .234 ISO, .372 wOBA and 132 wRC+ against righties in 2015 were all career highs and play even at the deep position of first base. The bad news is that his plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired (6.0% walk rate against righties in 2015). Moreland was aided by an uptick in HR/FB rate that's not really supported by his hard-hit ball rate, and I wouldn't be in a hurry to use him this season. If he gets off to a good start, then trusting him as a source of salary relief with power on GPP teams isn't out of the question.

Elvis Andrus' glove carries his value in real life. He gets no daily baseball fantasy points for his glove. He can steal bases (25 last year and 52 over the last two years), but he's bested a .100 ISO just one time in his career and has a sub-80 wRC+ the last three years. He's never posted a 100 wRC+ or better in his career. He has, however, bested a 100 wRC+ against lefties each of the last two years (112 wRC+ in 2014 and 102 wRC+ in 2015). Andrus has modest value against mediocre lefties, but that's where his value peaks.

Rougned Odor should probably be slotted higher in the lineup than he's projected to be, but judging by last year's usage, he'll start down order. The leash for the lefties in front of him may not be long, though, and Odor's value would get a big bump with a move up into a more prominent lineup spot. The soon-to-be 22-year-old second baseman was overwhelmed out of the gate, but a demotion to Triple-A righted the ship for him. In the second half, Odor hit 13 doubles, seven triples, 12 homers with a .246 ISO, .350 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 277 plate appearances. He was extremely aggressive in the second half with just a 3.6% walk rate, but his aggressive approach didn't result in an ugly strikeout rate (15.9% strikeout rate in the second half). Odor's emerging as one of the more talented hitters at the keystone position, and don't sleep on his production against lefties last season (.195 ISO, .336 wOBA and 106 wRC+). The left-handed hitting second baseman is a better play against righties, though. Until he moves up in the order, he's a tough sell in cash games, but a great play in GPPs.

Robinson Chirinos has hit 23 homers in 611 plate appearances over the last two years. That's notable pop for a backstop. He's totaled only 218 plate appearances against lefties in the majors, but he's made the most of them ripping 10 homers with a .208 ISO, .340 wOBA and 111 wRC+. When a lefty is on the hill against the Rangers, Chirinos should make the list of catchers in consideration for daily game rosters.

2016 Pitching Outlook

Cole Hamels had only pitched for one organization prior to be dealt to the Rangers. His strikeout rate dropped moving from the National League to the American League, but his work with the Rangers (3.79 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 3.61 SIERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 13.0% swinging strike rate in a dozen starts) was nothing to sneeze at. The lefty ranked sixth among qualified pitchers in swinging strike rate (13.3%), and his changeup remains a completely filthy pitch (27.82% whiff rate in 2015, per Brooks Baseball). His changeup isn't his only bat-missing pitch either. His curve netted a 17.85% whiff rate and his cutter generated a 10.74% whiff rate last year. He has all the goods to mow down lefties and righties while working through the order multiple times. Hamels is showing no signs of slowing down and remains a great daily baseball option.

Colby Lewis pitched better in 2015 than in 2014. That's the best thing I can say about his work last year as he still wasn't good. The veteran righty primarily leans on his fastballs (fourseam and sinker) and slider. Predictably, his pitch mix leaves him vulnerable to left-handed batters knocking him around (.324 wOBA allowed last season and .347 wOBA allowed since 2013). The whiff rate on his slider dipped to just 16.59% last year, and he's no longer death on righties (.310 wOBA allowed). Load up on hitters, namely lefties, when they face Lewis.

Martin Perez returned from 2014 Tommy John surgery and didn't embarrass himself in 14 starts. The young southpaw kept the ball on the ground at an exceptionally high rate (59.9% ground-ball rate) and demonstrated above average control (7.1% walk rate). His strikeout rate was lackluster, and his 7.5% swinging strike rate doesn't provide much reason for optimism about a surge in that department this season. The lefties best bat-missing offering is a changeup that had just a 14.45% whiff rate last year. His ERA was hurt by a 62.8% LOB%, but don't merely chalk that up to bad luck. The lefty has struggled with stranding runners throughout much of his professional career. Righties have given him fits (.336 wOBA allowed last year and .334 wOBA allowed in his career), and loading up on right-handed batters against him is advisable.

Yu Darvish underwent Tommy John surgery last March and missed the entire season. General manager Jon Daniels told Jon Morosi that the talented righty could return in the middle of May. Prior to surgery, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 83 starts in the majors, Darvish totaled a 30.1% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 1.20 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 3.11 xFIP and 3.10 SIERA. His 12.1% swinging strike rate supports his strikeout dominance. Darvish has possibly the deepest arsenal in the game with Brooks Baseball crediting him with a fourseam fastball, sinker, cutter, curve, slider, slow curve, changeup and split. If you didn't count them, that's eight total pitches. Good luck sitting on any particular pitch. Control is often cited as the last thing to return after Tommy John surgery, and because Darvish's control was below average before the injury, he might take a little longer to get back to his dominant form than other aces who have undergone the same procedure. His minor league rehab starts should be telling as to where his control is at. If he's not walking the world, his elite stuff is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs even before he answers questions about how he'll fare against big leaguers after a year layoff. As long as he returns to pre-surgery form, he'll be one of the best pitchers in the game.

Stock Watch

Up - Delino DeShields

Last year was a strong year for Rule 5 picks, and Delino DeShields qualifies as a hit for the Rangers. He hadn't taken a single at-bat in Triple-A before being selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Rangers. His work at the Double-A level in 2014 (.236/.346/.360 and 108 wRC+) wasn't all that impressive, either. The tools were there, and the Rangers nabbed him and eventually stuck him atop their order. He was a bit below average hitter (94 wRC+), but his walk rate (10.8%) and OBP (.344) were lead-off quality, and his speed is what appealed most to daily gamers (25 steals in 33 attempts). DeShields speed was his calling card in the minors, and he stole 101 bases in 2012, 59 bases in 2013 and 54 bases in 2014. There might be a bit more untapped stolen base upside, and he should be a fixture atop the order. The speedster was better against lefties than righties in the majors in his rookie season, and that lines up with his work at the Double-A level in 2014 (.226/.338/.349 versus righties and .269/.373/.398, per Baseball-Reference). His track record indicates DeShields is a better daily option against lefties than righties, but if he faces a right-handed starter and catcher that struggle to control the running game, he makes for a solid GPP play in that scenario, too.

Down - Derek Holland

Derek Holland exited his first start in April and didn't pitch in the majors again until August 19. He was sidelined with a shoulder strain, and he was knocked around a bit in his nine starts upon return. The shoulder injury didn't sap stuff. Holland's velocity was in line with what it was prior to the injury. His sinker was much more hittable last year, though, and his changeup didn't miss many bats either. Holland can shed his down stock arrow quickly, but there's no denying he'll need to prove himself before being trusted on rosters.

Resources:

StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.