Washington Nationals - Daily Fantasy Team Preview 2015

Vegas Win Total Projection: 93.5

No one projects to win more games this year than the Washington Nationals, and only one other team projects to win more than 90. This is a loaded roster. The lineup has star power and depth. The rotation does, too, and is the best in the business. Daily gamers will be pillaging this squad for talent from game one through game 162.

Park Factors

Washington is a very difficult place to hit homers with left-handed batters finding it 25% tougher than at a neutral park and right-handed batters not having it much easier getting dinged 23%. The park, however, plays slightly better than neutral for run scoring boosting it 3% to lefties and 4% to righties.

Projected Lineup

Projected Rotation

Catchers With 2014 Framing Ranks

Wilson Ramos- 42/79

Jose Lobaton- 32/79

The supremely talented starting pitchers for the Nationals don't need much help getting close calls, which is good because Wilson Ramos and Jose Lobaton are average to slightly below average pitch framers. That said, they could be ranked 78th and 79th in pitch framing and it wouldn't prevent me from touting the pitchers in this loaded rotation.

Spring Training Storylines

Where will Bryce Harper hit in the lineup?

This is a fun question. Bryce Harper has huge power that fits in the heart of a lineup, but with Denard Span injured and likely out until sometime in May, could the team hit him leadoff? Harper's career .351 OBP would look damn good atop the order. He scored a negative base running grade at FanGraphs last season, but was an asset on the bases in 2013. He's a decent runner who won't clog the bases, and getting Harper more plate appearances would be a wise move for the Nationals. He received the majority of his at-bats hitting sixth last year, but with Adam LaRoche out of town, he projects to at least move up to fifth in the order. Harper will be a strong daily baseball option hitting leadoff or fifth, but if he starts the year hitting first, the extra plate appearances will push his stock upward.

Will Jayson Werth be ready for Opening Day?

Jayson Werth underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in late January. Thankfully, no structural abnormalities were found, according to ESPN. Werth is able to throw now and is working on shaking the rust off of his swing. He's going to be cutting it close, but he should be ready very close to Opening Day if he's not penciled into the lineup that day.

2015 Lineup Outlook

When Denard Span returns in May, he projects to reclaim his leadoff spot. The left-handed hitter isn't a player who should be rostered when facing a southpaw. He is an excellent table setter and above average hitter facing righties, though. Span set a new career high with 31 stolen bases last year while getting caught only seven times. His power is limited, but he rarely strikes out (9.7% K in 2014) and his pop comes in the form of doubles and triples. Given the home run suppressing nature of his home park, his lack of over the fence power is more acceptable. His ceiling isn't exceptionally high, but topping a Nationals lineup that will score a ton of runs gives him a higher ceiling than your typical non-home run threat.

Anthony Rendon's bat forced the Nationals' hand to get him in the field in 2014. He time split between second base and third base, and this year he'll be at his more natural defensive home at the hot corner full time. Rendon blended power (21 homers and .186 ISO) with speed (17 stolen bases) and exceptional hitting prowess (130 wRC+). He raked against lefties and righties, and he'll be a staple in daily lineups this season.

I discussed Werth's availability above, but failed to shower him with praise as a hitter. The 35-year-old outfielder is one of the most patient hitters in the game, ranking tied for seventh among qualified hitters in walk rate (13.2%) last year. Overall, he managed a 141 wRC+. He's a very good hitter against righties, but he's a near must start when facing a southpaw. He failed to tally enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter since 2012, but if he qualified, his 180 wRC+ would have been the fourth highest mark -- sandwiched between Buster Posey and Giancarlo Stanton.

Ryan Zimmerman can finally stop inducing cringes from viewers by throwing the ball from third to first. He's made the move across the diamond and hopefully he'll manage to stay healthier at his less strenuous defensive home. He's yet another hitter in this lineup capable of hitting pitchers of each handedness hard, but he makes it three in a row who are better against southpaws than righties.

Harper is a slightly below average hitter against left-handed pitchers, but young enough to expect the possibility of growth. I wouldn't use him against most southpaws to start the year, but keep tabs on his numbers this year when facing them. He is, however, a handful for right-handed pitchers. His 138 wRC+ against them since 2012 indicates he's been a 38% better than average offensive player against right-handed pitchers. He, like Werth, doesn't have enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter in that time frame, but if he did, his .212 ISO would rank 19th. Use him with confidence against right-handed pitchers, namely in homer-friendly venues.

Ian Desmond would probably hit in a more favorable lineup slot in almost any other lineup. Still, sixth isn't the worst lineup slot when you'll have ducks on the pond regularly. Since 2012, he's third in wRC+ (117) among qualified shortstops. He's also almost equally good against right-handed and left-handed pitchers. Desmond is a very good offensive player at a position lacking in that kind of talent, so he'll regularly be in consideration for gamers looking to spend at shortstop.

The biggest knock on Wilson Ramos is his struggles remaining healthy. Thankfully, that's not really a concern for daily gamers. When he's healthy, he's a decent hitter relative to his catching peers. Last season, there were 31 catchers who tallied 300 or more plate appearances and 15 of them posted a 100 wRC+ or better. Ramos' 93 wRC+ ranked 19th. A healthy Ramos should perform closer to his 113 wRC+ tallied in 2013. Oddly, he has hit for more power against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers since 2012, but he's been a better offensive performer against lefties. He'll be in the catcher mix on a nightly basis in daily baseball.

Yunel Escobar will be forced off of shortstop to man the keystone position for his new team. He's been roughly an average offensive player the last two years (100 wRC+ in 2013 and 95 wRC+ in 2014). His power and speed are underwhelming, and hitting eighth caps his upside, but he's a punt option in daily baseball.

2015 Pitching Outlook

Stephen Strasburg headlines the rotation on the team's official website, but it's possible he's only the third best starter on this team. That's not an indictment of Strasburg's talent, rather it's high praise for the other arms filling the rotation. Last year, the hard-throwing righty ranked 13th in FIP, tied for fourth in strikeout rate and tied for fourth in K-BB% (22.9%). He's a stud. The price for using him will be steep, but if you're building your daily roster around your starting pitcher, he'll be worth the heavy spending.

Jordan Zimmermann is the best pitcher in the rotation ... at least according to FIP. He ranked seventh among qualified pitchers in that category last year. He also ranked 22nd in K% and 12th in K-BB% (19.1%). His strikeout ceiling is lower than Strasburg's, but he's essentially another ace in the rotation.

Max Scherzer makes it a trio of aces in the rotation as he exits the American League and returns to the National League. He ranked 11th in FIP, tied for fourth in strikeout rate and seventh in K-BB% (20.9%). That's three pricey starters highlighted for the Nationals, but a third who is well worth budgeting for.

Doug Fister is the worst member of the rotation, yet he's still very playable in daily baseball. Having said that, his low strikeout rate and reliance on his fielders to record outs for him leaves him prone to the vagaries of batted balls. Some bad luck on balls in play will hurt. He was extremely fortunate last year tallying a .262 BABIP (.292 career BABIP), and while walks almost no one (3.6% BB), he'll likely allow more base runners this year. Fister is best used on a site like FanDuel that doesn't reward strikeouts heavily. Backed by a strong offense, Fister will often be the betting favorite when he takes the bump.

Gio Gonzalez would be the ace of some big league staffs, yet he's only the fourth best starter in this stacked group. The lefty has steadily tallied punch outs in his career (23.4% K is his low in three years with the Nationals), but last year he set a new career best in walk rate (8.6% BB). The 29-year-old pitcher is trending upward and a fantastic daily baseball selection.

Stock Watch

Up-Max Scherzer

It's hard to imagine Scherzer pitching better than he has the last two years. He is making the move from the American League -- where he had to face lineups with designated hitters -- to the National League, though. He also will benefit from pitching in the same division as the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

Down- Ryan Zimmerman

In season long leagues, Zimmerman's stock is up. However, in daily games -- where he'll shed his third base eligibility -- the move to first is a devastating one. The hot corner simply doesn't feature the offensive talent first base does, and Zimmerman goes from being one of the best hitters at his previous positions to a merely good option at his new defensive home.

Daily Fantasy Outlook

The depth and talent in this lineup is jaw dropping. The lowest wRC+ for a hitter in the lineup since 2012 is the 99 wRC+ posted by Escobar. He's their number eight hitter. The lineup also includes five hitters with a wRC+ north of 110 in that time frame. There will be stack potential with this group, but who is getting stacked will be dependent on the handedness of the opposing pitcher and how manager Matt Williams chooses to arrange this talented group of hitters.

The rotation actually looks even better than the lineup I just gushed about. They have three aces and a near ace. All five starters are daily game usable, and four are capable of carrying fantasy squads. Using any starter for the Nationals not named Fister will require some budgeting, but gamers would be wise to pinch some pennies elsewhere on their rosters to get a piece of Strasburg, Zimmermann, Scherzer and Gonzalez.

Resources

StatCorner Framing using a 1000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.

ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs

StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.

Vegas Betting Win Total Provided by Pinnacle Sports