MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
2015 Recap and 2016 Daily Fantasy Outlook
The Nationals entered the 2015 season as a popular World Series pick and failed to even make the playoffs. They've since fired manager Matt Williams and hired Dusty Baker to replace him. Good luck, Stephen Strasburg's elbow. Last year wasn't all bad as Bryce Harper broke out and won himself the National League MVP Award. Max Scherzer hurled a pair of no-hitters, too. The Nationals have talent in both their lineup and the rotation and will provide plenty of options for daily baseball gamers to choose from.
Park Factors
Park Factors | LHB | RHB |
K | 94 | 102 |
BB (Unintentional BB + HBP) | 100 | 96 |
1B | 102 | 108 |
2/3B | 96 | 106 |
HR | 79 | 90 |
Runs | 97 | 103 |
gbH (Gbs turning into hits/errors) | 99 | 113 |
ofH (Outfield Fbs, excluding HR, turning into hits/errors) | 102 | 100 |
GB | 100 | 97 |
FB | 87 | 93 |
LD | 116 | 111 |
IF | 101 | 103 |
Run scoring is close to neutral in Nationals Park suppressing it by just 3% to lefties and boosting it by just 3% to righties. It does take a big bite out of homers, though. Homers to left-handed batters are reduced by 21% and righties don't escape the wrath of having homers reduced either with a 10% knock to taters hit there. Righties do, however, get a 6% bump to doubles/triples. Fly-ball pitchers play well at Nationals Park thanks to homers being reduced, but right-handed batters remain in play, too, since the bump in runs scored and doubles/triples helps offset the home run reduction. Left-handed sluggers are a poor choice for usage in Washington, but gap-to-gap doubles hitters aren't eliminated from the pool of usable players.
Projected Lineup
Lineup Spot | Name | Handedness | Position | Since '13 vs LHP ISO | Since '13 vs RHP ISO | Since '13 vs LHP wRC+ | Since '13 vs RHP wRC+ |
1 | Ben Revere | L | CF | .066 | .057 | 104 | 90 |
2 | Anthony Rendon | R | 3B | .142 | .152 | 125 | 110 |
3 | Bryce Harper | L | RF | .174 | .265 | 127 | 169 |
4 | Jayson Werth | R | LF | .237 | .164 | 162 | 125 |
5 | Ryan Zimmerman | R | 1B | .245 | .177 | 147 | 108 |
6 | Daniel Murphy | L | 2B | .076 | .158 | 83 | 119 |
7 | Wilson Ramos | R | C | .124 | .156 | 90 | 83 |
8 | Trea Turner | R | SS | .000 | .125 | 135 | 56 |
9 | Pitcher | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Projected Rotation
2015 Statistics used
Rotation Spot | Name | IP | K% | FIP |
1 | Max Scherzer | 228.2 | 30.7 | 2.77 |
2 | Stephen Strasburg | 127.1 | 29.6 | 2.81 |
3 | Gio Gonzalez | 175.2 | 22.3 | 3.05 |
4 | Tanner Roark | 111 | 15 | 4.70 |
5 | Joe Ross | 76.2 | 22 | 3.42 |
Catchers With 2015 Framing Ranks
Wilson Ramos - 40/72
Jose Lobaton - 7/72
Wilson Ramos is a below average pitch framer, but not a total train wreck behind the dish. His rank last year is consistent with his work in 2014, too, as he ranked 42nd out of 79 catchers in per game pitch framing value among backstops who caught a minimum of 1,000 pitches. Conversely, Jose Lobaton's top-10 rank might be a bit flukey as he ranked just 32nd in 2014 and 34th out of 78 catchers in 2013. The catcher duo for the Nationals doesn't move the needle much in either direction for the pitchers they'll be catching.
Spring Training Storylines
Who will win the fourth and fifth starter jobs?
The first three rotation spots are set. The last two spots are up for grabs. The favorites to land those jobs are likely Tanner Roark and Joe Ross, but they're not alone. A.J. Cole and Taylor Jordan are both on the 25-man roster and have started for the Nationals in the past, and Yusmeiro Petit was added as a free agent after the Giants non-tendered him. Jordan totaled a 3.41 FIP at the Triple-A level in 19 starts last year by pounding the zone (6.3% walk rate) and pitching to contact (14.2% strikeout rate), but that approach hasn't worked for him in the majors. He's made six starts over the last two years for the Nationals totaling a 3.72 FIP and 3.91 xFIP, and he's probably the longest shot to win a rotation spot.
Petit made 12 starts for the Giants in 2014 and just one in 42 appearances last season. In those 13 starts, the righty struck out 25.2% of the batters he faced with a tiny 4.0% walk rate, a 3.75 FIP, 3.21 xFIP and 3.02 SIERA. His actual run prevention wasn't as excellent as his ERA estimators suggested it should be as he managed an ugly 5.11 ERA. The biggest fly in the ointment for Petit is an ugly 59.8% LOB% in those starts. Scanning at his player card on FanGraphs reveals he has had struggles with stranding baserunners at various times in his career, so it may be more than bad luck at play. He'll probably open the year as a swingman, but he'd have some appeal as a bargain arm in spot starts. If he wins a rotation spot, he'll be under priced to open the year and worth a look in GPPs depending on the matchup and ballpark he pitches in. Petit had a 36.2% ground-ball rate and 43.8% fly-ball rate as a starter over the last two years. Don't use him in homer-friendly parks.
Cole frequently appeared on top-100 prospect lists at Baseball America (twice), Baseball Prospectus (four times) and MLB.com (four times). The righty dominated the Double-A level totaling a 2.69 FIP and 28.0% strikeout rate in seven starts in 2013 and a 2.58 FIP and 19.8% strikeout rate in 2014. He's also pitched well at the Triple-A level, but his strikeout rate has dropped moving up the ladder (18.7% in 11 starts in 2014 and a 17.2% strikeout rate in 21 appearances, 19 starts, in 2015). His 4.48 FIP in 2014 in Triple-A improved to 3.90 in Triple-A last season. Cole made a start in late April for the Nationals and was bombed but was much better in two relief appearances in May. Cole could win a rotation spot, receive an introduction to the majors via a bullpen role or remain stretched out as a starter with Triple-A Syracuse if he fails to secure a rotation spot. Cole's intriguing, but he didn't dominate the minors to the point where he should immediately be trusted.
Roark is likely the best bet to land one of the final two rotation spots. The 29-year-old pitcher made 31 starts in 2014 an spun a 2.85 ERA that wasn't supported by his 3.47 FIP, 3.84 xFIP or 3.93 SIERA. His recipe for success was limiting free passes (4.9% walk rate), occasionally striking a batter out (17.3% strikeout rate) and avoiding hard contact (22.6% hard hit ball rate). Last year, he was the odd man out of a stacked rotation but still made a dozen starts. His four-leaf clover must have shriveled up and perished because his hard hit ball rate as a starter jumped to 27.7%, and his 4.82 ERA was in line with his 5.29 FIP, 4.53 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA. Roark will probably start for the Nationals, but that doesn't mean he should start for your daily baseball teams. Lefties ripped off a .369 wOBA against him in 2015, and stacking, mini-stacking or using lefties as one-off options against him is advisable.
The second most likely candidate to join Roark in one of the last two spots in the rotation is Ross, and he has much more daily baseball appeal. Ross made 16 appearances and 13 starts for the Nats last year. He was quite good, too, with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 3.42 FIP, 3.57 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA with a juicy 49.5% ground-ball rate. Ross missed bat aplenty with a 11.8% swinging strike. His slider is a filthy put-away pitch with a 25.39% whiff rate, according to Brooks Baseball. His sinker packed plenty of heat with a 93.73 mph average velocity, and he also mixed in a changeup. The changeup had a poor whiff rate and just a 31.25% ground-ball rate on balls put in play by lefties. Ross relies heavily on his fastball/slider combo, and unsurprisingly he struggled with lefties allowing a .351 wOBA to them as a rookie. Ross should only be used against righty-heavy lineups until he proves he can handle lefties. In the mean time, use left-handed batters against him to take advantage of his shortcomings against them.
Who will start at shortstop?
Trea Turner played in 27 games for the Nationals after raking in the upper minors last season. The job will be his, but the Nationals could opt to manipulate his service time to save money and turn to Danny Espinosa or Stephen Drew when the team breaks camp. Drew's awful and has posted a wRC+ above 100 just one time in the last five years. Espinosa, on the other hand, has been an above average offensive player against southpaws in five of six seasons seasons in the majors. Since 2013, he owns a .170 ISO, .336 wOBA and 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Those aren't world-beater numbers, but they're playable as a value option/punt pick at the offensively challenged position of shortstop.
Turner was awesome with the lumber in the minors last season. In 254 plate appearances at the Double-A level while still with the Padres he hit five homers, stole 11 bases and had a .388 wOBA and 141 wRC+. He stole four more bases with a .389 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in 41 Double-A plate appearances with the Nationals before continuing to rake at the Triple-A level. In 205 plate appearances at the Triple-A level he stole 14 bases with a .358 wOBA and 126 wRC+. He has wheels that earned a 70 speed grade at FanGraphs on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Turner managed just a 72 wRC+ in 44 plate appearances for the Nationals, but he wasn't a disaster at the dish. He walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances. His strikeout rate (27.3%) was ugly for a non-power hitter, and it hovered around 20% in the minors. That's higher than one would like to see from a player with below average power, but he could be an average offensive player as soon as this year, and that works in daily baseball at shortstop, especially when it's bolstered by stolen base upside.
2016 Lineup Outlook
Ben Revere is more like a traditional leadoff hitter than the new mold version. He's a speedster who doesn't walk much and has a slightly above average on-base percentage as opposed to a gigantic one. He does, however, make a ton of contact (10.1% strikeout rate last season and 9.4% for his career). He has elite speed and stole 31 bases last year. Hitting leadoff for the Nationals would award him run-scoring upside, but his ceiling will be tied to how frequently manager Dusty Baker sends him for stolen base attempts. Looking over Baker's most recent managerial stint with the Reds, he did allow speedy center fielder Drew Stubbs to run, so there's some promise for Revere getting the green light.
Anthony Rendon was limited to 80 games played and 355 plate appearances in 2015. His season didn't start until June, he hit the disabled list again by the end of that month and was activated in late July. It was a miserable follow up to his breakout 2014 campaign. The biggest positive from last season for Rendon is that he walked in 10.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in under 20% of them. His power went backwards and he stole just one base after stealing 17 the year before. His track record of lower-body injuries doesn't portend well to him stealing bases at a level similar to 2014 again, but his mastery of the strike zone and sweet swing bode well for him bouncing back as a hitter. Last season, he was much better against lefties than righties, but he posted an identical 130 wRC+ against lefties and righties in 2014. I'm bullish on Rendon this year and would use him against any handedness pitcher starting as soon as Opening Day.
The Nationals dealt Yunel Escobar, in part, to free up third base for Rendon. Moving Rendon from the keystone to the hot corner opened a hole at second base that they've filled with postseason-hero Daniel Murphy. His seven homers in 64 plate appearances in the postseason represented half of his regular season total in 538 plate appearances. Erase his long-ball heater in the postseason from your mind. The left-handed hitting infielder's numbers in the table against lefties are actually better than his work against southpaws last year (.095 ISO, .275 wOBA and 76 wRC+). There's no reason to use him against lefties. His numbers against righties last year (.193 ISO, .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+) exceed his three-year numbers in the table. Even if he hits as low as sixth in the order, where I have him projected, he'll have daily baseball value against righties. If he happens to secure a top-five lineup spot, then he becomes very interesting thanks to the uptick in run and RBI upside that would accompany his lineup spot.
Wilson Ramos set a new career high in plate appearances with 504 last year, but his wRC+ crumbled from 93 in 2014 to 63 last season. He hit 15 homers, but the pop wasn't enough to make up for his 4.2% walk rate and 20.0% strikeout rate. His numbers were nearly identically abysmal against lefties and righties last year. For his career, he owns a higher wRC+ against lefties than righties (105 versus lefties and 89 versus righties) but a lower ISO against lefties than righties (.132 versus lefties and .159 versus righties). The standout number in his lefty/righty career splits is a 60 point gap in BABIP favoring facing righties, but his plate discipline numbers and batted ball data are nearly identical. The former Twin has above average raw power that showed up when he ranked 12th in average fly ball and homer distance in 2014 and even when he ranked 75th in average fly ball and homer distance out of 284 hitters last year, according to Baseball Heat Maps. He doesn't hit enough fly balls, though, with a 24.9% fly-ball rate last year and a 27.4% fly-ball rate in his career. Since he can put a charge into the ball, he's a fine punt play chasing a homer even off of a down year.
2016 Pitching Outlook
Max Scherzer delivered ace numbers in his first with the Nationals after signing a mega contract. Among qualified pitchers, he ranked third in strikeout rate, second in walk rate (3.8%), fourth in WHIP (0.92), seventh in FIP, sixth in xFIP (2.88) and third in SIERA (2.63). Scherzer's electric arsenal of pitches also helped him finish second in swinging strike rate. Homers were an issue for him in August, but they weren't an issue the rest of the year and don't provide any cause for concern for his 2016 outlook. Scherzer's upside in any start rivals that of any starter in the game. He also has a high floor that helps make him a top-10 daily baseball pitching option.
Stephen Strasburg continues to be a tease, but at least he ended last year on a sky-high note. In the second half, Strasburg made 10 starts that spanned 66.1 innings and dominated the competition like an elite reliever. He posted a 2.09 FIP, 1.95 xFIP, 1.90 SIERA, 37.4% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate in the second half with a 14.6% swinging strike rate. He reached double-digit strikeouts in five of his last 10 starts. Strasburg opened the year slowly and finished with a bang. The talent's always been there, but the health hasn't often cooperated. If he opens the year with a salary that's reflective of his full-season work last year as opposed to his big finish, jump all over the discount. Even if his salary is reflective of his work in the second half, he's one of the highest upside starters in the game and arguably the best pitcher for the Nationals -- no small compliment considering I declared Mad Max a to-10 daily baseball pitching option.
Gio Gonzalez is a distant third in this rotation, but he's not your typical number-three starter. Among qualified pitchers in 2015, Gonzalez ranked 29th in strikeout rate, tied for 16th in FIP and 27th in xFIP. The lefty has no shortage of talent and plenty of upside, but his swinging strike rate of 9.8% is actually a tiny bit below the league average of 9.9% in 2015. That's probably not as troubling as it might seem. Gonzalez's changeup is a nasty pitch that resulted in a 20.66% whiff rate last year. His curveball's whiff rate of 12.4% is strong too, as is his 9.71% whiff rate on his fourseam fastball. He has the goods to put away lefties and righties, so he should continue to best the league average in strikeout rate even if his swinging strike rate doesn't best it. Gonzalez's ceiling is high, but his mediocre control (9.1% walk rate last year) lowers his floor. Gonzalez is a stronger GPP play than a cash games choice, but depending on the matchup and other pitching options on a given slate, he'll have cash games viability at times as well.
Stock Watch
Up - Bryce Harper
I mean, you had to see this coming, right? Perhaps no one made a greater leap in production last year than Harper. He nearly doubled his previous career high in homers when he belted 42. His whole statistical profile is drool inducing. Harper walked in 19.0% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 20.0% of them. He led qualified hitters in ISO (.319), wOBA (.461) and wRC+ (197). Harper can be used against literally any pitcher, but what he did to right-handed pitchers last year was remarkable. In 465 plate appearances against righties, he hit 23 doubles, one triple, 35 homers with a .354 ISO, .478 wOBA and 209 wRC+. Harper just might be the best hitter in the game. It goes without saying, but he's always an option in GPPs even when facing a stud hurler and one of the strongest options in cash games, too.
Down - Ryan Zimmerman
Forget the Al Jazeera network reports linking Ryan Zimmerman to using PEDs. That's not what the down arrow next to him is about at all. For most of last year (or perhaps all, I don't recall) he was third base and first base eligible at DraftKings and first base eligible at FanDuel. Zimmerman played zero games at third base last year, and that should mean he's only first base eligible across the industry this year. That alone is a damaging blow. He also battled injuries last year and fell short of 400 plate appearances for the second year in a row. His 107 wRC+ in 2015 was his lowest since 2008. He's still in play in daily games when a lefty is on the hill, but first base is too deep to bother with using Zimmerman outside of stacks against a righty. He hasn't posted an ISO north of .200 against righties since 2012, and he's done so just three times in his career.
Resources:
StatCorner Framing using a 1,000 pitch minimum and ranks according to per game value.
ISO and wRC+ Statistics are from FanGraphs
StatCorner Park Factors Using a rolling 3-year average.
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