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Correlations are very relevant in NFL DFS, as we like to pair up quarterbacks with their top receiving options. While the running back and defense stack is not as high of an upside stack as using a passing game, it is still viable with the right plays around it and still brings a small correlation of upside. Game stacks can often be overlooked, but why wouldn't you want exposure to the team trying to keep up or chasing your favorite passing offense? There are ways to be contrarian by still targeting a top offense projected with higher ownership. Shifting from the popular WR1 to a WR2, TE, or even RB is going to help you get exposure at slightly less ownership. WR1, RB1, WR2, and TE1, in that order, stand the highest chances of generating the most fantasy points in a stack. This is at least for two-person stacks. We will dive into more multiplayer stacks below. Volume, Vegas, opposing defensive stats, pace, and pricing are all calculated into my stacks below. You will find my top, value, contrarian, and game stacks within the article. You can find me on Twitter at @JGuilbault11 to help with the week's slate or questions/comments about the article.
I am attacking the Bills run defense this week and using Mark Andrews because he matches up far better than the wide receivers I worry about this week. Buffalo has faced a couple of mobile quarterbacks this season, but the numbers against Ryan Tannehill were concerning, and then they gave up 62 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to Kyler Murray. Now add Lamar Jackson into the mix, and he should have a monster day. They played Jackson pretty tight last year, allowing 40 yards, but he also threw three touchdowns. Jackson's rushing numbers always give him a solid floor, and that upside is there if he has the multi-touchdown day on the ground. Buffalo has also allowed 24.6 PPR points per game to running backs, and they were bottom-ten in rushing touchdowns allowed. JK Dobbins is still way too cheap on FD and is a lock for me there, not stacking the Ravens. Over the last five weeks of the season, the Ravens backs ran for 854 yards and eight touchdowns. Dobbins has scored in seven straight games, including the last playoff game. Mark Andrews is a major mismatch for Buffalo, who have struggled against tight ends in a weak, tight end schedule they faced this year. They allowed the 5th most PPR points to tight ends this season, and Andrews, we know, is one of the better fantasy tight ends.
Bucs/Saints Game Stack
The Bucs/Saints stack has several ways you can go because there are so many receiving options on both sides. The one consistent here is Tom Brady over Drew Brees. Even with Brady's struggles, I at least know I don't have to deal with Taysom Hill coming in for red zone plays or Brees relying on YAC to get his yards up. For Brees to have a big ceiling game, he needs to have 3+ passing touchdowns, and while he did that last time out against the Bucs, I still rather go Brady. To get exposure to the Saints passing game, I like Michael Thomas, who is underpriced for what we know he can do. He looks healthy and has averaged 21 DK point sper game in nine games against Tampa and 16.5 FD points per game. He has averaged 99 yards per game and has four touchdowns in the prior four games to this season versus the Bucs. The Saints have allowed some monster games to tight ends this season, with Waller, Tonyan, Kelce, and Irv Smith all producing huge fantasy games. The flops were about what you'd expect for names. Gronk was quiet as Brate was the tight end to have last week, but I still rather go Gronk here. As for the receiving options, Mike Evans has really struggled against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore, who shadows him. In 13 games, he has averaged 51 yards and 10.8 DK points per game. That drops to single digits for FD. Chris Godwin has better numbers, with five touchdowns and 14.2 DK points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City was a team that I didn't write about in the regular season because they are the most potent stack in the world. However, in the playoffs, we are going to look at the Chiefs as an expensive stack but damn this is a great matchup against the Browns secondary that has struggled all year no matter who has been back there. Cleveland struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the 4th most fantasy points and 10 touchdowns. Wide receivers have averaged 39.8 PPR points per game against the Browns, which is the 9th most in the league. Quarterbacks have averaged 24 points per game and produced the 7th most fantasy points against this Browns defense. This is an expensive stack but there are some value options this week to fill around it. If you want to go within the game, rashard Higgins and Austin Hooper are the two cheap pass catchers I like to make this a game stack and hope for that big shootout and the likeliness of the Browns trailing this game.