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Welcome back to the NBA value Plays for today 1-13-17. It is Friday the 13th, so expect the unexpected. Or ignore that silliness and enjoy this 9 game slate tonight. There are some awesome games, and a few potential (Likely blowouts). Toronto being the likeliest team to crush their opponent early. I do have a few plays from this game but, if you are worried about blowout a player like DeMarre Carroll who the Raptors have worried about minutes in the past, is a riskier option.
As always it is bright and early this am, so there is a bunch of injury news and other updates to monitor throughout the day.
Darren Collison, Sacramento vs Cleveland($4,400 FanDuel/$4,300 DraftKings)
Collison is coming off of a tougher defensive matchup in his last game to face the Cavs tonight. Cleveland ranks 18th in DvP and if Collison plays his 30 minutes or more with his .99 FPPM he should meet value easily. Tonight we have projected for just under 7X.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.1 DraftKings: 29.7
T.J. McConnell, Philadelphia vs Charlotte ($5,400 FanDuel/$5,300 DraftKings)
McConnell has scored 29 or more DraftKings points over his last 5 and after hitting the game winner on Wednesday night will likely not lose the starting role any time soon. He is averaging 2 steals, 9 assists, and 8.3 points a game over his last 5 as well. The Hornets rank 19th in DvP so if the Sixers are going to hang around McConnell will need to keep doing what he has been doing.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.92 DraftKings: 33.66
Dion Waiters, Miami @ Milwaukee ($4,900 FanDuel/$4,400 DraftKings)
Waiters is getting minutes and has no restrictions so that should be a good thing for tonight. He had 27.25 DraftKings points in his last start, but shot terribly from the field. If his shots would have been falling his total would have been much, much better. He should continue to play minutes which we have him playing 33 and he will certainly be shooting the ball. He took 17 shots in his last game. Milwaukee is ranked 12th in DvP so not too bad, but we still have projected to hit 6X tonight with 7X potential.
Also qualifies as a SF on DraftKings.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.73 DraftKings: 29.7
Thabo Sefolosha, Atlanta vs Boston ($4,100 FanDuel/$4,100 DraftKings)
Sefolosha may be facing off against Jae Crowder and th 20th ranked DvP Celtics tonight but we like his potential to hit 5x plus tonight at home. He is coming off of 23 DraftKings point performance on Tuesday.
Also qualifies as a SF on DraftKings. Small Forward only on FanDuel
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 22.14 DraftKings: 24.03
Stanley Johnson ($3,000 on DK and $3,500 on FanDuel but is only SF eligible there) is also interesting depending on if KCP is out of action for a while with the shoulder. Another option if there is news Sean Kilpatrick in a blowout potential game but with so many injuries in Brooklyn could also be an appealing play tonight at $4,400 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel.
DeMarre Carroll, Toronto vs Brooklyn ($3,800 FanDuel/$4,500 DraftKings)
23 and 40 Dk points in his last two games. Anyone facing brooklyn defense is in a good spot.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 24.18 DraftKings: 26.66
Rodney McGruder, Miami @ Milwaukee ($3,500 FanDuel/$3,100 DraftKings)
McGruder should get the start tonight at the 2, but hasn't been able to do much with his boost in minutes. Tonight we are hoping for enough production to hit 7X and if he plays the minutes we have him projected for in 31, he can come close.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 19.84 DraftKings: 22.32
Marvin Williams, Charlotte @ Philadelphia ($4,700 FanDuel/$4,900 DraftKings)
5X potential is here and he is facing the 18th ranked DvP 76ers. The Hornets frontcourt is messy, and while there is value to be had as I am listing, the risk is high as well. Williams however has been consistent over his last 4 games. He has produced 25 or more DraftKings points in 3 of those 4 and the other being 22.75. You can live with a 5X play. Williams is projected to play 28 minutes tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 23.24 DraftKings: 25.48
Patrick Patterson, Toronto vs Brooklyn ($3,800 FanDuel/$3,500 DraftKings)
Dirt, dirt cheap player against a horrific defense is more than appealing for me if you are looking for a punt. Patterson is listed as questionable as of this morning so beware and follow closely. He may also be on a minutes restriction but still could play 20 minutes. He is cheap and plenty risky, but I like him enough to hit 5x for sure with 6X Potential.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 20.54 DraftKings: 22.62
Kelly Olynk, Boston @ Atlanta ($3,700 FanDuel/$4,100 DraftKings)
Hearing that Zeller was back and will likely eat into Spencer Hawes minutes I am now looking at Kelly Olynk especially if he starts. This is not a dream worthy matchup though and may be a GPP flyer only. The Hawks are rnaked 3rd in DvP and Olynk will certainly not be outrebounding Paul Milsapp and Dwight Howard. He may be able to do some damage from the outside though and play a heavier minute load tonight.
DFC Projection: 22.62 FanDuel: DraftKings: 24.18
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