NBA Sports Betting Quick Links
Hello everyone and welcome to the Value Plays for tonight's NBA contests on November 11th, 2016. Today we are looking at a 8 game slate for this Friday night. It has some good matchups tonight. It is bright and early here so I beat the Vegas odds so bear with me a bit on that.
Today especially the Point Guard position looks to be the most top heavy, so finding value at the Center and Small Forward positions will be ideal. Injuries and potential suspensions are abound tonight especially for the Wizards so monitor that closely. No more late swap makes waiting on news all the more important.
Plenty of high scoring affairs but also some blow-out risks. Games involving the Spurs, Blazers and Cavaliers who are favored to win by more than 7 could be a bit on the risky side for minute crunches. Nothing is guaranteed however, and tonight of all nights where the superstars are somewhat limited you may need to take that risk either way.
To pack in the big hitters for these games though we will need to round out our lineups with some value plays, and ideally players with heavy minutes and usage rates.
So without further ado let's get into it.
Point Guard
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic vs Utah Jazz ($5,700 FanDuel/$5,400 DK)
It is a little too early with Vegas odds for today's games. With 0.98 FPPM and a 20.4 usage rate this season Payton is a worthy value pick at the point guard position. There is a lot of talent at the PG position tonight so it will be hard to plug him in on DK compared to FanDuel.
In his previous match-ups against the Jazz has averaged a line of 10.8/2.8/7 in 31.8 minutes of play.
He is projected to put up 33.32 on DraftKings tonight and currently has a high enough usage rate to make this a solid 5X value pick
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.92 DraftKings: 33.32
Marcus Smart, Celtics ($4,900 FanDuel/$4,900 DK)
Smart is a player I will be targeting plenty tonight. He is on the court for upwards of 32 minutes in the past week and is involved in 17.4% of the plays. This number is likely higher since his return to the court as well. Averaging 0.93 points per minute and in a game where the Celtics are expected to put up 110.75 points per Vegas lines Smart is a very solid value PG if you opt not to pay up for the position tonight. The other perk is he qualifies as a SG on DK!
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.56 DraftKings: 29.76
Shooting Guard
Marcus Thornton, Wizards vs Cavaliers ($3,800 FanDuel/$4,200 DK)
Thornton is a plug in for Bradley Beal assuming he won't go tonight. This position is WEAK tonight so monitor this one closely. Thornton is not Beal, but he should get plenty of minutes and can produce some modest Fantasy output. This is the kind of pick where he will open up your lineup for big hitters.His usage rate of 24.4 is solid and that has been coming off of the bench this season. Cavs are also 30th in DvP and shooting guards and he can definitely hit value.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 14.45 DraftKings: 15.98
J.R. Smith, Cavaliers vs Wizards ($4,200 FanDuel/$4,200 DK)
Smith has been playing heavy minutes and is not the top weapon in this offense but he is still a weapon who can get hot easily enough. The spread is 209.5 with the Cvs expected to put up 108.25. The Wizards are allowing 39.28 to the position and with Smith averaging 10 shots a game in 31.6 minutes this season I like him tonight and especially at this price. The Wizards are ranked at the top against the SG position but injuries could weaken them a bit tonight. I love the pace and opportunities for Smith tonight.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 22.72 DraftKings: 25.28
Small Forward
Robert Covington, 76ers vs Pacers ($4,700 FanDuel/$5,200 DK)
Covington is more appealing on FanDuel tonight due to cost and needing to roster two shooting guards. Covington has been averaging 28.6 minutes a game and a line of 7.9/5.1/0.9 and two steals. Not fantastic but the Pacers are 23rd in DvP against the position and the usage rate of 21.5 is solid. Against the Pacers his line is better with a 12.7/ 3.8 / 0.7. Covington feels due for a big game and I like him tonight f you need value.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 25.20 DraftKings: 28.2
Tobias Harris, Pistons @ Spurs ($ FanDuel/$5,300 DK)
Harris is a riskier value pick tonight facing the Spurs who have been the 4th best team against the Small Forward position this season. Harris however is on the court for close to 35 minutes a game and is being used at a 19.3% clip. Tough matchup or not I am willing to roll the dice here tonight. I also know he may not be as highly owned due to the low score projection of 92 points tonight. If you opt against Covington Harris is a risky option but with a high ceiling. Harris also qualifies as a PF tonight so that is appealing somewhat too.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 24.07 DraftKings: 26.39
Power Forward
Markieff Morris, Wizards vs Cavaliers ($5,400 FanDuel/$5,700DK)
Morris has faded a bit since his last big game. This means people may be fading him and makes him more appealing to me in GPP. He is still averaging .98 FPPM this season and a heavy usage rate of 24.2. Kevin Love is not a great defender so this smells like a bounce-back game for Morris. With a projection of just under 33 points that's well over a 5X value.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 29.92 DraftKings: 32.98
Thaddeus Young, Pacers @ 76ers ($ FanDuel/$5,400 DK)
Young returns to my value picks tonight for sure. He faces off against the 24th ranked team in DvP and they have been allowing a whopping 50.4 points to the Power Forward position this season.
This game should also be up tempo and high scoring with the Pacers heavily favored to put up 108.75 points tonight. 30 minutes a game and a usage rate of 21.6? Yes please.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 29.10 DraftKings: 31.80
Center
Roy Hibbert, Hornets vs Raptors ($3,600 FanDuel/$3,700 DK)
This is a big one here. At the moment Hibbert appears to be probable, but you will need to closely monitor this one. IF he plays, and even if he is on a minutes crunch due to his back this feels like a must play at this price.
This is a minimum priced center who can do significant damage on the boards and scoring in minimal minutes. There is no projection for him yet due to injury status.
DFC Projection: Fanduel: N/A DraftKings: N/A
Login or Register to join the conversation.