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Hello everyone and welcome to the Value Plays for tonight's NBA contests on November 18th, 2016. Today we have ourselves a 10 game slate with some great matchups along with some blowout potential.
It is bright and early once again so Vegas odds aren't all complete at this point but we will work with what we have.
There is heaps of talent tonight after last nights 5 game slate and many of the stars should be well rested after a few days rest such as Lebron James and perhaps the injured Anthony Davis. James Harden meanwhile will be getting a much needed day off today, so that should help with some decision making tonight.
Injuries need to be monitored as well throughout the day.Often times plays may seem perfect here in the early am, but a scratch or rest day can open up even more fantastic value.
Tonight some big ones to monitor will be with Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley, Thabo Sefolosha and Draymond Green all being listed as questionable.
Keep close tabs on this all the way up to tip off and be ready to make some swaps as needed throughout the day.
Point Guard
Jeff Teague, Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns ($6,500 FD/$6,500 DK)
The Pacers and Suns have a 219 Vegas line tonight. Teague has been averaging 12 shots a game, and has been averaging 31.58 DK points this season. Tonight's game will be high scoring and the Suns rank 24th in DvP allowing a whopping 54.3 points to the point guard position. Teague is nearly impossible for me not to roster especially on DK in what looks like a fantastic matchup.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 32.98 DraftKings: 37.40
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets ($6,000 FD/$5,900 DK)
Schroder has been playing better as of late and averaging just under 13 shots a game and 30.27 DK points a game on the season. Kemba Walker and the Hornets play very good defense and are only allowing 47.6 points to the position but I still think Schroder can do damage. At this projection along with averaging over a FPPM at 5.9K, Schroder is a reliable PG value tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 27.90 DraftKings: 32.24
Look at Ish Smith too for an even cheaper option for $5,400 on DK and $5,400 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Sean Kilpatrick, Nets vs Thunder ($5,200 FD/$5,300 DK)
I know Kilpatrick killed us the other night, but we are going back to the well again tonight. His usage rate of 28.8 and 1.02 FPPM is still very good and he is still being used heavily. Tonight's game should be high scoring and there shouldn't be as much of risk of a blowout making Kilpatrick an appealing value play.
Kilpatrick is averaging 25 minutes a game, 12 shots and 25.73 DK points a game currently.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 24.03 DraftKings: 27.54
Seth Curry, Mavericks vs Grizzlies ($4,100 FD/$5,200 DK)
Curry is projected to play a ton of minutes as one of the few healthy guards in Dallas tonight. At this price you can't really pass on him. Projected to play 34 minutes and with a YTD usage rate of 15.47 shouldn't concern you. That rate should certainly be much higher tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 24.82 DraftKings: 27.88
Small Forward
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Hornets vs Hawks ($5,200 FD/$ 5,100 DK )
Gilchrist has been averaging 35.3 minutes over his last five games and although he has only been shooting the ball 7 times a game he is still managing 24.78 DK points on the season. He has a very nice ceiling and in what should be a high scoring affair. MKG fills all the peripheral statistics and this gives him value, especially if his jumper is working.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 26.40 DraftKings: 28.71
Maurice Harkless, Blazers @ New Orleans ($4,600 FD/$5,000 DK)
Harkless is playing over 30 minutes, shooting the ball 10 times and averaging 22.79 FPPM. Tonight he should be able to do a little more damage and has a ceiling of 6-7X
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 24.75 DraftKings: 27.39
If you are really looking for a punt play look at Vince Carter.
Power Forward
Myles Turner, Pacers vs Phoenix ($6,100 FD/$6,000 DK)
Turner may be more of a GPP play with this price. Averaging 31.1 DK points a game in 28 minutes over the last five games. Turner can get into foul trouble and that is what has hurt his minutes this season. If he can play composed tonight he will play more, and should be able to eat tonight against the Suns who rank 25th in DvP and allow 48.3 points to position. He is also averaging 1.13 FPPM so I am all in tonight. Turner is listed as a Center on FanDuel so make note!
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 33.17 DraftKings: 35.03
Terrence Jones, Pelicans vs Blazers ($5,000 FD/$6,200 DK)
This game has blow-out potential as the Blazers have played three out of four nights. Jones should be a lock and a highly owned play tonight if Anthony Davis sits out again. If he doesn't sit I will STILL play him especially in GPP's. Blazers are ranked 20th in DvP, and Jones is averaging a FPPM this season, so even if he only plays 20-25 minutes he can come close to a 5X value tonight.
Keep tab on Davis, but if Jones is starting he is almost a lock for 30 minutes and 34 points tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 31.28 DraftKings: 34
Center
Tristan Thompson, Cavs vs Pistons ($4,700 FD/$4,700 DK)
Thompson is in a good spot here against the Pistons especially if there is no Drummond.Keep tabs on this of course. Aron Baynes isn't a fantastic defender and Thompson and love will likely be a force in the paint tonight. If he can somehow score more than 8 points tonight his peripheral stats will be there. This price is too good to be true for me tonight and projects out as a nearly 6x guy.
Thompson averaging just under a FPPM with only 4 shots a game over his last 5 says plenty.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 25.81 DraftKings: 27.26
Kelly Olynyk, Celtics vs Warriors ($4,000 FD/$4,600 DK)
Olynyk was another one of my value picks on Wednesday who flopped a bit. This game has a whopping line of 225. Olynyk will get his opportunities against the 15th ranked team in DvP tonight. He is averaging 0.98 FPPM and should play close to 30 minutes tonight. His projections on DFC have him meeting a 7X value tonight on FanDuel.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 28.42 DraftKings: 29.87
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