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Hello everyone and welcome to the Value Plays for tonight's NBA contests. Today we are looking at a 9 game slate and it has it's fair share of superstars to plug and play. Today especially the Small Forward and Power Forward positions look to be the most top heavy, so finding value at the guard positions will be ideal.
We have a nearly even split on games with Vegas projections for teams being over 100 points, and under 100 points tonight. The highest scoring game according to Vegas will be the Warriors and Lakers. The Warriors are favored by 10.5 points with 118.
Needless to say we will be looking for players from this game as well as the Bulls vs Knicks and the Suns vs Pelicans
To pack in the big hitters for these games though we will need to round out our lineups with some value plays, and ideally players with heavy minutes and usage rates.
So without further ado let's get into it.
Point Guard
JJ Barrea Mavericks vs Blazers ($5,100 FD/$4,800 DK)
Barrea is a question mark for tonight but has been averaging 1.02 FPPM this season. If he plays a heavy load of minutes he can certainly produce.
In his previous matchups against Lillard and the Blazers He has averaged a line of 11.5/2.5/3.5 in 22 minutes of play.
Averaging 10 shots a game so far this season, a minutes boost and if his shots actually fall tonight could be rewarding for owners who roster him.
He is projected to put up 34.7 on DraftKings tonight and currently has a usage rate of 23.8
NOTE: Monitor injury news for Deron Williams, and Barea as well. if they are in fact out teammate Whitehead is a very cheap and appealing play tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.04 DraftKings: 34.7
Dennis Schroder, Hawks vs Wizards ($5,900 FD/$6,100 DK)
Schroder is my top value play pick tonight with a bullet. He has been playing 32 Minutes a game while averaging 1.11 FPPM so far this season.
In his previous matchups against Wall and the Wizards he has averaged a line of 12.3/ 1.3/ 5 along with just under a steal a game in 22 minutes.
Schroder's usage rate is fantastic running the Hawks fast paced offense at 28.8
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 31.04 DraftKings: 35.52
Shooting Guard
Randy Foye, Nets vs Hornets ($4,500 FD/$3,000 DK)
Foye is projected to play 29 minutes tonight, although that number could increase due to injuries, all while averaging 0.75 FPPM.
In his previous matchups against the Hornets he has averaged a line of 12.1/ 2.2/ 3.3 in 28 minutes a game.
Tonight he is projected for close to the same minutes.
This is a risky punt play, but he is just that a 3K punt with a 6X ceiling. Keep tabs on injury report too as Foye has missed time as of late. If he plays he should be a great value play.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 19.43 DraftKings: 21.75
Bradley Beal, Wizards @ Hawks ($5,300 FD/$5,300 DK)
Beal has been playing 30-35 minutes a game while averaging 0.91 FPPM so far this season.
In his previous matchups against the Hawks he has averaged a line of 14.3/ 3.2 /3.7
The most appealing part of Beal tonight is that he has a usage rate of 25.3. Plenty of minutes, plenty of touches in a high-tempo game = sign me up. Averaging 14 shots a game, and around 5 3 point attempts a game this season. The shots aren't falling at high percentage yet, but if they do he will be in for a big night.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 28.35 DraftKings: 31.85
Small Forward
Markieff Morris, Wizards vs Hawks ($5,500 FD/ $5,500 DK)
Morris has been playing 33 Minutes a game while averaging 1.01 FPPM. Solid and safe production at a nice discount tonight. Especially on DK. FanDuel he is PF eligible only so that is still nice value but I may not plug him in as much there since the pricing is still favorable on so many other stars.
In his previous matchups against the Hawks He has averaged a line of 16.5/ 8/ 0.5 in 26.3 minutes a game. He should play 33 minutes tonight in a High tempo game.
Combined with a usage rate of 24.2 Morris is a lock for me on DraftKings.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 30.03 DraftKings: 33.33
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Hornets @ Nets ($5,600 FD/$5,400 DK)
Has been playing 29 Minutes a game all while averaging 0.91 FPPM.
In his previous matchups against the Nets He has averaged a line of 8.6/6.5/1.1 in just under 28 minutes a game. Averaging around 8 shots a game isn't appealing but I have a feeling tonight Gilchrist will be a big part of the offense. His usage rate isn't spectacular, but 18 isn't terrible.
The DFC Optimizer projects him to meet a 5x value tonight.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 24.07 DraftKings: 26.39
Power Forward
LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs @ Jazz ($7,100 FD/$6,600 DK)
Has been playing 31.8 Minutes a game so far this season while averaging 1.05 FPPM. About as consistent as they come Aldridge is good for about a point a minute. Tonight he faces the Jazz, a team that allows 41.2 points to the PF position. This isn't an ideal matchup, but his price is reasonable, he is safe and will make a solid GPP play tonight due to lower ownership. Cash games having a safe lock at this price is always nice.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 29.40 DraftKings: 31.50
Jamychal Green, Grizzlies @ Clippers ($4,700 FD/$4,800 DK)
Green is coming off of a big game after playing 31 minutes and putting up a line of 21/6/2 and a steal against the Pelicans. This is the third game in a row for the youngster so his minutes may take a dip, but for this price he is still worth the risk.
Has been playing 31.1 Minutes a game while averaging 0.96 FPPM this season along with a usage rate of 19.8.
DFC Projection: FanDuel: 25.81 DraftKings: 27.84
Center
Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors @ Heat ($6,200 FD/$6,500 DK)
Has been playing 31.8 Minutes a game while averaging 1.1 FPPM as well. Valanciunas hasn't been scoring many points for the Raptors this season, but his ability to fill the stat sheet with rebounds and the occasional block make him appealing tonight. He faces the tough opponent in the Heat, but he should be able to produce and what's most important he costs a fair amount.
He has averaged a line of 16/11/1.3 this season in just under 32 minutes.
He also has a usage rate of 20.9
DFC Projection: Fanduel: 32.96 DraftKings: 35.20
Good luck tonight EVERYONE!!
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