​Making Sense of NBA Stats: Anatomy of a Dominant Offensive Game

Our next installment of making sense of NBA stats is, the anatomy of a dominant offensive game. For example, the 49 points Russell Westbrook scored against the 76ers last night. He also added 16 rebounds, 10 assists and 3 steals, but we're going to focus strictly on the offensive part of his game for this column as the scoring statistic is one of the most highly scrutinized and predictable stats we come across in fantasy basketball.

True “Upside" Comes from Scoring

It's his pure scoring mixed with elite peripheral numbers that make Westbrook such a fantasy and real life asset, one that almost can't be matched. While I'm a huge proponent of targeting peripheral statistics first in NBA DFS, it applies much better to value plays than guys you are paying premium prices for in most cases. While there is a lot to be said for the consistency that can be had targeting peripheral stats, there's a reason why you don't see a guy like Serge Ibaka reach the same price threshold as someone like Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis. It's because scoring ceilings are much higher than peripheral ceilings. Westbrook scored more real points last night than Serge Ibaka has scored FanDuel points in all but 4 career games. That's something that's unbelievable, but becomes even more astounding as you look at the stats. Ibaka's best career block game was on February 19, 2012, where he totaled 14 points, 15 rebounds and 11 blocks for one of the rarer triple-doubles in recent memory, and he still topped Westbrook's last night scoring total by only 6 points.

Scoring Comes from Volume or Efficiency

One of the hardest things to distinguish as a fantasy basketball player is a predictable outburst and an unpredictable one you wanted to have predicted. Last night's Westbrook outburst was a fairly predictable one once he was deemed healthy enough to play in the game. He was facing the 29th ranked defense in the NBA and was playing without Kevin Durant. Durant out greatly increases his usage rate. Usage rate as a predictive measure of volume. Take a look at Westbrook's usage rates from some different samples:

With Durant on the floor this season: 32.5% Usage
With Durant off the floor this season: 44.2% Usage

Over the past 3 games: 48% Usage

Coming into Wednesday night, Durant was still out and Westbrook's usage had been continuing to trend up, making his usage in last night's game a predictable phenomenon. He hasn't needed to have outstanding shooting percentage night's to post these elite scoring totals, because the other factors are there. In fact, over the past 5 games -- in which Westbrook has averaged 33.8 points per contest -- he's shooting just 43.3% from the field, almost identical to his season average of 43.4%.

As an alternative, let's take a look at Courtney Lee's game from February 22nd against the Blazers. He scored 29.25 fantasy points, greatly outproducing his salary. He had none of the factors we see with Westbrook working in his favor, but he's also a player who needs much less production to provide value as his salary is much lower. The Blazers have been a tougher than average matchup against wing players this season, ranking in the top third against both shooting guards and small forwards in efficiency defense, and there was no one of significance sitting out the game for Memphis to increase his usage rate. Lee would go on to play his usual 30 minutes on this night with one major difference: efficiency. Efficiency like Lee displayed in this game is highly unpredictable as he topped his season marks considerably in each category, shooting 6-for-8 from the field, 2-for-2 from three and 5-for-5 from the free throw line. Regulate those numbers to near his season marks and his fantasy point total drops to 19.75, barely a considerable option.

Matchup Matters in More Way than One

There are two major impacts matchup has on players: the ease of scoring points and the opportunity players have to score points. Most of the time, people focus on the ease of scoring points against a particular position on a team, which is useful information. However, it's not the only information you need. The opportunity for players to score points against that team is just as important, if not more important. The biggest part of this is minutes, which many often forget is a big part of a matchup. If a game is a blowout, a player's minutes will be down. Also, if a power forward matchup is Joe Johnson versus Spencer Hawes to start the game, Hawes isn't likely to play nearly as much in that game as he would versus a team like the Bulls starting Pau Gasol at power forward, where his size is needed. Being able to accurately predict that the Thunder/Sixers game last night would be close would have given you a huge advantage, as Westbrook would, and did, play heavy minutes in the 4th quarter of such a contest. Look at what Westbrook has been doing in the 4th quarter over this incredible run.

4th Quarter over past 4 games:

56.4% Usage Rate

40.9% Defensive Rebound Rate

57.1% Assist Rate

That means he's accounting for over half of those total statistics for the Thunder in the 4th quarter, and it's not a quarter he can afford to lose in a blowout at his current DFS price tag

Another important part of the matchup is the type of shots you can get against a team. I detailed last week, the way the Blazers force the primary ball handler to take shots he doesn't really want to take often. At the other end of the spectrum, we have the Sixers, who have been letting teams get the shots they want all season. If you look at Westbrook's shot chart from last night below, you'll see the majority of his shots were taken where he wants them, not coincidentally the spots he also shoots well above the league average at, indicated by the dark blue icons.

Finally, I'll leave you with the kind of separation you can get from this type of scoring volume over guys playing great basketball. Ricky Rubio, for instance, is just behind Westbrook over the last three weeks in sub-categories averaging 20.1 peripheral stats per game to Westbrook's 23.5. However, due to Westbrook outscoring him 33.7 to 12.3 in point per game, Westbrook is approaching doubling his fantasy production in 3 less minutes per game over the last 7 outings.