Making Sense of Stats: NBA Playoff Picture

Our newest indulgence into making sense of stats has us looking at the NBA Playoff picture. As baseball approaches and the NBA season winds down, people start dropping out of NBA contests because “the lineups are too unpredictable" and “none of the good players are playing anymore." My personal favorite is “it's all luck at this point anyway", because if it were all luck, that person wouldn't be losing every day, they'd be winning more than enough to feel they were somewhat skilled at it.

In reality, this time of year in NBA daily fantasy, is where we separate the men and women from the boys and girls. The rotations become more difficult to figure out, as players are shut down for the season and guys are rested more often than usual, sure. However, now is the point where research, news and how you react to both of those things becomes an even bigger factor in your success. Early in the season, when we all know, for the most part, who is playing and starting every night well in advance, the lineups look incredibly similar. Everyone has had multiple hours to break down the same info and come up with the plays. At this point in the season, being able to predict NBA rotations as they change on the fly becomes a huge part of the game and it really separates people who are prepared and have been watching games, from the people who just do minimal research on matchups.

Let's take a look at what the matchups would look like if the NBA Playoffs started today.

We'll also take a look at what the standings look like today, an X means the team is locked in to the playoffs, while an O means they have been mathematically eliminated.

The teams we most want to target for fantasy basketball this time of year, are the teams that fall between those two categories though. These teams are still really playing for something in the regular season. Most teams locked in are looking forward to the playoffs, some will fight for seeding, although that's going to be tough to predict. Let's examine those still trying to get in the playoffs a bit.

Western Conference:

Dallas Mavericks - The Mavs have the easiest path to get in the dance, they basically just have to avoid blowing up completely. However, I expect Dallas to play their starters, other than Dirk Nowitzki, heavy minutes the rest of the regular season as they've been dealing with injuries and new faces all season, so they've yet to really get in a groove.

Oklahoma City Thunder - The Thunder are fighting desperately to hang on to the final spot in the Western playoffs. Russell Westbrook and the rest of the team are going to have to play heavy minutes and go all out to hold off the charging Pelicans and Suns, so deploy them with no fear for the near future.

New Orleans Pelicans - Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans are going to be elite fantasy plays the rest of the way as the Pelicans need every win they can get, as they still trail the Thunder for the West's final playoff spot by less than 2 games.

Phoenix Suns - The Suns are the last team alive in the West and they have been playing all of their starters extended minutes, especially because they lack depth right now with Alex Len and Brandon Knight both hurt. If Knight returns, expect them to try and get a long look at their newest acquisition, as they haven't seen a ton of him yet and he's a free agent this summer.

Eastern Conference:

Milwaukee Bucks - While the Bucks have regressed just slightly since unloading Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams, they've really tightened up their rotation for the playoff run. All of their starters, Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia have seen some really extended run lately and are great plays at their prices down the stretch.

Miami Heat - It's hard to imagine a team with this many injury issues throughout the season and an aging Dwyane Wade as it's best player still sitting pretty in the playoff race, but it's happened. Wade will continue to be elite when he suits up, while Goran Dragic is the guy you really want to target here. He'd love to make the playoffs while the Suns don't after the way he left Phoenix.

Brooklyn Nets - The Nets rotation has been so bland and balanced that it's been hard to really target anyone other than the red-hot Brook Lopez on this team. They are still hanging on to the 8th seed in the East, so expect them to ride Lopez until the wheels fall off as he's soon to be a free agent.

Boston Celtics - The Celtics seem torn between rebuilding and trying to grab the last playoff spot in the East. If Isaiah Thomas can get healthy, he's the best play here, but outside of him, their rotation has simply been too deep lately.

Charlotte Hornets - Charlotte is another team just barely hanging on to hope for that last spot in the East. They are going to run Kemba Walker as much as they can, while managing the minutes a bit of the aging and hurting Mo Williams and Al Jefferson, but they need both on the court with Walker for making the playoffs to mean anything.

Indiana Pacers - Yet another team in the hanging on, with a very non-fantasy friendly rotation. George Hill is the horse here as he's finally playing extended minutes and making them count. If they can get Paul George back and make a run, things could get really interesting.

Detroit Pistons - The Pistons are the last team not mathematically eliminated, but they are getting dangerously close. They are likely to shut down Greg Monroe once they get eliminated and will probably limit Andre Drummond's minutes a bit following that as well. Reggie Jackson is set to be a free agent and they'll want to see as much of him as they can before having to decide what to pay him in the offseason, so he's going to be a fantastic play the rest of the way.

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