Minutes to Win It - Monitoring NBA Rotations 3-30-15

With Daily Fantasy Basketball contests, it truly takes minutes to win it. Minutes are the most important and predictable stat in the NBA and the more accurately you can project minutes, the more accurately you can project fantasy points. Recently, there was some impressive research done by a Reddit user that explored the correlation between a plethora of stats and fantasy point production (Link: http://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/2w88dp/which_stats_are_actually_predictive_of_future/). Minutes were far and away the most correlative to fantasy points. This should be obvious as the best players play more and the more you play, the more chance you have to accumulate stats.

Based on this, we'll look at players with a major change in minutes recently, starting with the Top 10 in the NBA in minutes over the last two weeks:

Now let's look at a few players even closer:

Andrew Wiggins - F MIN

Season Average: 35.4 MPG

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 0.82

Last 2 Weeks: 41.5 MPG

Difference: +6.1

Percent Increase: 18%

Wiggins has been playing heavy minutes most of the season, and while he's been solid, his fppm statistics aren't going to blow you away. However, over the past two weeks, we've seen those minutes clear the 40 mpg threshold pretty easily. His production has also been way up due to injuries suffered by Kevin Martin and Ricky Rubio, the Wolves primary scorer and ball handler. It's really increased his usage rate to a much more respectable level, and the total minutes have increased his previously lacking peripheral production. Martin doesn't seem to be as far away as some of the other injured Wolves, but it's unlikely the Wolves rush him back in a lost season, so look for Wiggins to keep this up quite a bit longer. He's basically been 30 fantasy points in the bank when he plays over 40 minutes, as you can see below. Wiggins is averaging 25.0 ppg and 5.8 rpg over the last 4 games.

John Wall - PG WAS

Season Average: 36 MPG

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 1.08

Last 2 Weeks: 39.1 MPG

Difference: +3.1

Percent Increase: 9%

Wall is a really interesting guy to be on this list. The Wizards have been really trying to limit him due to nagging injuries, but recently, they've given up on Ramon Sessions as a backup and have been running him at length as their point guard. Wall has always been a solid fantasy point per minutes producer, but he gets even better with more minutes. As you can see in the graph below, Wall has been awfully impressive in games where he's played 40+ minutes, very rarely totaling below 40 fantasy points. It gives him the 60 fantasy point upside that makes him such a tempting play each and every night.

Langston Galloway - G NYK

Season Average: 31.9 MPG

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 0.76

Last 2 Weeks: 38.9 MPG

Difference: +8

Percent Increase: 23%

Galloway has had a very interesting rookie year. He burst onto the scene with a few high scoring games early in his Knicks career, then became kind of the lost guy on offense once some of their bigger names like Jose Calderon and Carmelo Anthony started playing again. After the mass exodus of injuries and roster moves, the Knicks are now left with a roster devoid of many guards and Galloway has been left to play heavy minutes in its wake. He's not an elite per minute player, but as you can see below, he is a guy who can make the most of heavy minutes, especially when his usage is high enough to get a return on them. Four games out of seven, he's topped 30 fantasy points when he's played at least 38 minutes and only disappointed badly for his price in one of them.