Minutes to Win It – Monitoring NBA Rotations 3/9/15

With Daily Fantasy Basketball contests, it truly takes minutes to win it. Minutes are the most important and predictable stat in the NBA and the more accurately you can project minutes, the more accurately you can project fantasy points. Recently, there was some impressive research done by a Reddit user that explored the correlation between a plethora of stats and fantasy point production (Link: http://www.reddit.com/r/dfsports/comments/2w88dp/which_stats_are_actually_predictive_of_future/). Minutes were far and away the most correlative to fantasy points. This should be obvious as the best players play more and the more you play, the more chances you have to accumulate stats.

Based on this, we'll look at players with a major change in minutes recently, starting with the Top 10 in the NBA in minutes over the last two weeks:

Now let's look at a few of those players even closer:

Victor Oladipo - G ORL

Season Average: 34.5

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 0.91

Last 2 Weeks: 40.2 MPG

Difference: +5.7

Percent Increase: 17%

Oladipo has been playing some solid minutes all season, but with the Magic being decimated by injuries lately, he's been vaulted into the top 5 in the NBA in minutes over the last two weeks, seeing a 17% increase on his already impressive 34.5 minutes per night. He's been a productive player in his NBA career and is averaging 0.91 fantasy points per minutes on the season. If we extrapolate that over 40.2 minutes per game, we get a baseline expectation of 36 fantasy points, which is a fantastic score for his current prices. After adjusting for matchup, we're often looking at an elite play. He's now played 40 or more minutes 5 times in 2015 -- three of them being in the last week -- and we can take a look at his production below.

DeAndre Jordan - C LAC

Season Average: 34.1

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 1.07

Last 2 Weeks: 38.9 MPG

Difference: +4.8

Percent Increase: 14%

With Blake Griffin out, Jordan has really picked up the slack for him both via court time and on the glass. Jordan was playing a solid 33.2 minutes with Griffin in the lineup, but that has blown up into 38.9 minutes per game with him hurt. The only thing holding that number back from being well over 40 has been some struggles with foul trouble and blowouts since Griffin went down. Jordan has an absolutely insane FPPM number of 1.07, impressive, even for a center. It's extrapolated nicely in his extended minutes to 1.05 over the last 10 games with Griffin out. Jordan isn't an elite scorer, so his production does truly come from volume and time on the court as well as his elite efficiency as a 71.5% field goal shooter. Look for him to continue to dominate as long as Griffin remains out. If you look at Jordan's game log below, you'll find that he's played less than 35 minutes with Griffin out just twice. One was a blowout by Golden State, and the other he got in foul trouble against Sacramento and DeMarcus Cousins.

Ricky Rubio - PG MIN

Season Average: 32.1

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 1.12

Last 2 Weeks: 38.2 MPG

Difference: +6.1

Percent Increase: 19%

Rubio missed much of the first half of the season with an ankle injury, but he wasn't playing these kind of minutes early in the season either. He's come back very strong since the All-Star Break, and it's impressive to see someone with his 36.7% field goal percentage be able to rack up 1.12 FPPM over such a long stretch. He's increased his playing time by almost 20% since getting his ankle healthy and he looks like a true foundation player for the Wolves who they are going to keep playing heavy minutes. He's been able to sustain his strong play over the extended minutes, and there's so much room for him to continue to improve thanks to his shooting percentage. As you can see in his game log below, he's played less than 37 minutes just once since the break.

Under the Radar Minute Mover:

Shaun Livingston - PG GSW

Season Average: 17.6

Fantasy Points Per Minute: 0.82

Last 4 Games: 27.2 MPG

Difference: +10.1

Percent Increase: 57%

Shaun Livingston's playing time has skyrocketed over the last 4 games as the Warriors have started shrinking their rotation in preparation for the playoffs. His playing time has grown 57% from his season average over the last four games as he's both helping rest Steph Curry and playing alongside him late in games. For his near-minimum prices on every DFS site, he makes for an interesting play for the dominant Warriors as his playing time remains constant, often regardless of the score. His FPPM aren't as elite as the guys listed above, but he costs less than half what they do and is seeing a bigger increase in minutes. In those 27 minutes per game he's playing lately, he's averaged 15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals over the three games, you can explore that game log in more detail below.