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Happy hump day, everyone! After a weak four-game slate last night, we have an 11-game on tap for tonight. We should have some high-scoring affairs with the Warriors on the slate, although we are awaiting news to get a total on that game. As for the others, the majority of the games are projected between 210 and 220 points, with a few that fall short of those totals. Milwaukee and Denver are the two teams projected with a team total over 110 points, while Charlotte, Minnesota, Washington, Indiana, and New Orleans are all over 105. There is plenty of injury news to keep an eye on but we have received a decent amount already. Myles Turner, Tyler Johnson, Nikola Mirotic, Michael Beasley, Jeff Teague, and Milos Teodosic are some of the biggest names to keep an eye on.

Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

35 108 24 48.1 27.36 39.55 38.15

DK Salary: $7,900 / FD Salary: $8,400

A pair of Charlotte Hornets will be my GPP building blocks tonight, and that starts with Kemba Walker. The matchup against Dallas projects to be a solid game, with a 210.5 total, and Charlotte's 108 team total. The Hornets are well, rested, last playing five days ago, and this is an excellent individual matchup for Walker. He is coming off a solid stretch of games, averaging 39.7 fantasy points per game over his last four, and it seems his shooting woes are out of the way, as he has shot 43 percent from the floor over that span. His minutes have been down over his last two, because of blowouts, but they should climb back up to the 34-36 range if the Mavericks keep this game close. Kemba has been outstanding in the pick-and-roll this season, averaging .98 point per play, with a frequency of 52.1 percent. He is attempting 29 percent of his shots at the rim this season, where Dallas is allowing opponents to shoot almost 70 percent while attempting another 37 percent of his shots from above-the-break. Dallas has one weakness from beyond-the-arc this season, and that happens to be above-the-break threes where they are allowing opponents to connect on 37 percent of their attempts.

Dallas, as we know, has had their struggles on defense of late. Over their last 10 games, excluding last night's game, they have allowed opponents to average 109 points per game. Over those 10 games, Dallas has ranked 30th in defensive efficiency to point guards, allowing 28.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 9.8 assists and 51.9 percent shooting. They rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position on the season, allowing 48.1, and they are terrible at defending the pick-and-roll. I will outline below why I love Dwight Howard in this matchup, as well, and this is a spot where I will not be fading either of the two.

Dwight Howard, C, Charlotte Hornets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

30

108

23

53.64

22.93

35.14

35.40

DK Salary: $7,600 / FD Salary: $8,700

There is plenty to like about Dwight Howard, and the entire Hornets team for that matter, in tonight's matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. Howard is well rested, for one, as the Hornets last played five days ago, and he was on a pretty solid roll prior to the extended layoff. Howard had over 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games, both blowouts, and was fresh off a massive 59.25 fantasy point performance against the Golden State Warriors prior to that. It should be mentioned, of course, that Howard did have a down game against the Clippers, where he was only able to put up 21 fantasy points, but that seems like an outlier performance. Howard is enjoying an excellent season and he is fifth in the NBA in post-ups per game at 8.5, fifth in rebound chances (20.2) and is converting on 60.1 percent of those chances.

Tonight's matchup against the Mavericks couldn't be any better. Dallas is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, allowing 44.9 per game, and they are allowing opponents to shoot almost 70 percent at the rim. They are doing a decent job of limiting second-chance points and points in the paint, but I am not too concerned about that tonight. They are allowing .89 points per play on post-ups, an area where Dwight is operating 40 percent of the time, and they rank 24th in defensive efficiency to centers over the last 10 games. They are giving up 21.1 points and 14.3 rebounds to centers over those 10 games. They rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the position on the season. Given the matchup, and how well rested Dwight is, he should be able to put up a huge game tonight.

Tobias Harris, SF/PF, Detroit Pistons

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

36

103

24

48.53

26.13

33.84

33.12

DK Salary: $6,900 / FD Salary: $6,700

I know I have a soft spot for Tobias Harris, and I cannot explain why, but I cannot get over how good of a spot this is for him tonight. Tobias is coming off back-to-back games over 40 fantasy points, against New Orleans and Houston, and has been playing a heap of minutes in close games for the Pistons. He has seen 35 or more minutes in five of his last ten games. Harris has benefited from Jackson being out, with a 26.5 percent usage rate, and is averaging 1.00 fantasy points per minute with him off the floor. He has double-digit field goal attempts in 10 consecutive outings, including six outings with at least 15 attempts. Harris is the teams most efficient operator in the pick-and-roll, as both the ball handler and roll man, and is also their most effective post up player. He is spotting up on 32 percent of his attempts, and averaging 6.3 points per game on those attempts.

This is an excellent spot for Tobias and the Pistons tonight, facing a Nets team that is giving up 109.2 points per game on the season, and they struggle to defend power forwards. They are giving up 48.53 fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards on the season, while giving up 45.7 rebounds, 45.5 points in the paint, and have allowed opponents to shoot 42.3 and 44.4 percent on paint and mid-range attempts this season. Tobias is attempting 41 percent of his total shots in the paint or in the mid-range, making it a spot where he can attack. They struggle to defend the ball and handler and roll man in the pick-and-roll, as well as post-ups and against spot-up shooters. Given Harris' strengths and his shot profile, this looks to be an outstanding spot for him tonight.

Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

38

105.5

12

45.8

23.28

38.27

38.02

DK Salary: $6,900 / FD Salary: $7,100

We will be playing the Anthony Davis injury roulette tonight, which is frustrating, but that benefits Jrue Holiday with Davis likely sitting. It also makes Rajon Rondo an intriguing option, but I prefer to go with Holiday because of his scoring potential. Holiday hasn't put up eye-popping numbers of late, but he is coming off a stretch of games where he eclipsed 30 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He has double-digit field goal attempts in each of his last ten games, with seven games of at least five three-point attempts. With Davis off the floor this season, Holiday is posting a 24.4 percent usage rate, while averaging .96 fantasy points per minute. In his five games played without Davis this season, Holiday has averaged 44.3 fantasy points, compared to 32.9 with Davis. He averages 4.5 more field goal attempts and 1.1 more assists without Davis.

A matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies isn't terribly appealing on paper, mostly because of their pace and defensive reputation, but their recent defensive numbers are a stark contrast from their season-long numbers. Over their last ten games, the Grizzlies have surrendered 105.8 points per game, up from their 102.4 season average, and they rank 29th in defensive efficiency to shooting guards over that span. They have given up a whopping 32 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.2 assists per game during that stretch, and have allowed opponents to shoot 47.8 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from beyond-the-arc. Outside of those metrics, there isn't a lot to love about the matchup, which will hopefully keep people off him tonight.

Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

36

112.5

17

45.3

24.58

33.55

32.48

DK Salary: $5,900 / FD Salary: $6,700

The point guard situation in Denver has been a headache for the majority of the season but things have started to straighten out of late. Mudiay has essentially fallen out of the rotation, and Will Barton is playing the backup role, giving way to plenty of minutes and opportunities for Jamal Murray. He has scored 20-plus points with at least six rebounds in four of the past seven games and he leads the team in scoring. He leads a Denver offense that ranks eighth in points per game at 107.6 and has been torching the nets over the last 10 games. During that stretch, he has shot 48.2 percent from the floor, including 39.4 percent from three. Murray has double-digit field goal attempts in ten consecutive outings and has been over 20 field goal attempts in three of those games, in addition to the extra rebounds and assists he has added to his game. He has posted a 24.9 percent usage rate over the last ten games, as well.

The Hawks are a defense that I love to pick on, and I will be doing that with plenty of Nuggets tonight. They rank 25th in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing 108.5 points per game, and over the last ten games, they have ranked 21st in defensive efficiency to point guards. They are surrendering 19 points, 6.5 rebounds, 10.1 assists to go along with 46 percent shooting during that span. They rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to point guards on the season but have mostly faced teams without a true point guard of late. They struggle to defend the pick-and-roll and spot-up shooters, two areas where Murray can really make them hurt tonight. This is a great spot for Gary Harris and Trey Lyles tonight, and I will have a sprinkle of them in my lineups, as well.



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