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It is Martin Luther King today meaning we are blessed with an entire day of basketball to feast our eyes upon! Hopefully everyone enjoys watching all the games this afternoon as they prepare the four game slate for tonight. It should be an interesting slate to watch as we have the Warriors facing the Cavaliers, Chris Paul and the Rockets taking on the Clippers (REVENGE!!), Pacers and the Jazz, and the Kings heading to beautiful OKC to take on the Thunder! The Warriors and Cavaliers game projects to be the highest scoring of the bunch, with the total sitting at 231, SAC at OKC projects to be a potential blowout, and we are awaiting injury news for both of the other games before we see a line on them. Most of that news will revolve around who will actually be healthy for the Clippers, so we need to monitor that news closely. The three guys that I am listing below probably won't be massively under owned, or even close to that, they are, however, three players that I feel can blow their value out of the water tonight given their current prices.

Draymond Green, PF/C, Golden State Warriors

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34 118 26 44.9 19.66 39.12 39.53

DK Salary: $7,700 / FD Salary: $8,200

While I don't exactly like Draymond Green as a player, mostly because he likes to kick Steven Adams in the no-no place, he is one of the better options on the board tonight as he faces off against the Cavaliers. Green is basically a swiss army knife for Golden State, playing multiple positions and switching multiple different defensive assignments throughout a game, and he produces in every statistical category. He plays heavy minutes for the Warriors, averaging 34.6 over the last ten days, and is consistently under priced for both the floor, and ceiling, that he provides. Green has double-digit rebounds or assists in seven of the last ten games, including one triple-double, and has notched at least a block or steal in all but three of his last ten games. Green played 40.2 minutes against the Cavaliers on Christmas Day, notching a 12-points, 11-assist, 12-rebound triple-double, and pulled in three combined blocks and steals.

The Cavaliers continue to be an absolute mess on defense. Over the last ten games, Cleveland has surrendered an average of 112 points per game and they ranked 27th in defensive efficiency to power forwards during that span. They have surrendered 24.3 points, 11.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and have allowed 47.8 percent shooting to the position in those ten games. Those numbers shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, however, as they are fairly close to what they have allowed all season long. They allow 44.9 fantasy points per game to power forwards on the season, ranking them 26th in the NBA, and have surrendered 43.9 rebounds, 46.4 points in the paint, and 12.8 second-chance points to opponents. Everything shapes up for Draymond to put up a big game tonight.

Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

31

111

29

51.4

22.93

27.46

28.36

DK Salary: $6,200 / FD Salary: $7,000

With the Kings on the slate tonight we have the opportunity to take a big man against them, meaning Steven Adams will be in all of my lineups. The Aussie big man has been a favorite of mine all season long, and while that hasn't paid off 100 percent of the time, it has paid off more often than not. Adams continues to be one of the most dominant offensive rebounders in the NBA, ranking second in the league with 4.9 per game, averages 17.7 rebound chances per game, and is converting 48 percent of those chances. In addition to his excellent rebounding, Adams leads the NBA in paint touches per game at 11.9 and is third in the NBA in paint points at 10.9. He is an efficient roll man, ranking in the 74th percentile in the NBA, and is one of the better post-up players in the NBA, as well. All of these things are important when facing the Kings, as they are areas to attack their defense.

Not only are the Kings one of the best matchups in the NBA for centers, ranking 29th in fantasy points (51.4) allowed, but they give up 43.6 rebounds, 42.6 points in the paint, and 12 second-chance points per game. They lack adequate rim protection, allowing opponents to shoot 64 percent at the rim and 45.7 percent in the paint, and they are one of the worst teams defending both the roll man and post-ups. They are 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency to centers over the last ten games, surrendering 21.9 points and 16 rebounds to opposing bigs during that span, and have allowed them to shoot a whopping 56.9 percent from the floor. Adams dominated in this spot the last time these teams faced off, putting up 14 points with six rebounds and five steals in 29 minutes, and should be able to match that upside with a few more rebounds tonight.

Eric Gordon, SG, Houston Rockets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

35

-

27

42.1

26.6

33.84

29.40

DK Salary: $7,200 / FD Salary: $6,700

The loss of James Harden has opened a spot in the starting lineup for Eric Gordon and he certainly has not disappointed. He was already averaging a decent amount of minutes per game prior to the injury, 33 minutes per game, but he has seen a massive increase in usage and production. Since being inserted into the starting lineup against Orlando, Gordon has notched 35.75, 52.75, 29.75, 47.0, 44.75, and 25.25 fantasy points. Obviously, the variance is a little concerning, but that production also shows how much upside he possesses, especially in good matchups. Gordon is posting a 30.8 percent usage rate in 284.7 minutes with Harden off the floor this season and is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute during that time. He has double-digit three-point attempts in three consecutive outings, 15 or more field-goal attempts in seven of the last ten games, and has six or more assists in four of his six games since starting.

The Clippers have actually been the best team in the NBA against shooting guards over the last ten games, allowing only 18 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 35.5 percent shooting to the position over that span, but on the season they rank 27th in fantasy points allowed and were torched by Gordon and Harden the last time these teams met. They struggle against spot-up shooters like Gordon, surrendering 1.03 points per play and lack rim and paint protection because of their recent string of injuries. Opponents are shooting 63.5 percent at the rim against them this season, and 41.8 percent in the paint, and have struggled to defend the three-point line. All of these things make Gordon an interesting, yet volatile, shooting guard option to target in tournaments tonight.



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