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Greetings everyone! Welcome to another hump day edition of the GPP Green Light! Unlike the past two days, we have an exciting 12-game slate on tap tonight and we have plenty to look forward to. The Cavaliers head to Boston to take on Kyrie, the Rockets will take the floor without Harden, Paul George is heading out to LA to take on the Lakers, along with several other great games. We have three games projected over 215 points, with the Timberwolves at Nets falling just short of that, a few games that are offline at the moment, and one game under 200. There is also plenty of injury news to keep an eye on, especially with Golden State, and several players already ruled out. All in all, we are in for a good night of basketball!

Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

32 - 25 54.33 15.2128.16 29.12

DK Salary: $6,300 / FD Salary: $6,700

Adams' torrid month of December came to a screeching halt over the last two games, as he put up duds against the Bucks and Mavericks, but he ended the month averaging 15.1 points and 9.7 rebounds. He will look to kick off the new year with a big game as the Thunder head to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers, and this is definitely the spot for him to do that. Adams leads the NBA in paint touches per game with 11.9 paint touches per game, averages 17.4 rebound chances and is converting 48.9 percent of those chances, and is scoring 11.4 paint points per game. He leads the team in second-chance points with 4.4 per game, as well, and is averaging 1.08 points per play on post-ups.

The Lakers defense has been reeling as of late, giving up 117.3 points per game over their last seven games, and they have one of the weakest interior defenses in the NBA. They rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to centers, giving up 54.33 fantasy points per game, and they rank 27th in defensive efficiency to the position over the last 10 games. During that span, they have allowed 22.4 points, 15.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, a combined 4.1 blocks and steals, and have allowed 53.5 percent shooting from the floor. They are giving up 45.7 rebounds, 13.9 second-chance points, and 49.8 points in the paint on the season. This is a dream matchup for Adams and the rest of the OKC Thunder, and he is a guy I absolutely love tonight.

Derrick Favors, PF/C, Utah Jazz

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34

105.75

29

47.3

18.64

31.96

32.98

DK Salary: $6,000 / FD Salary: $6,400

Tonight's matchup between New Orleans and Utah looks to be a sneaky good fantasy spot with plenty of great options. Obviously, DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis are going to two great studs to target from one side of this game but there is a decent amount of fantasy appeal on the Utah side of this game, as well. Without Rudy Gobert in the lineup for Utah, Derrick Favors has had to step up for this team and play minutes at the center position and he should see big minutes against the Twin Towers of New Orleans tonight. Favors has been fairly consistent as of late, eclipsing 30 fantasy points in three-straight games, and he has averaged 32.4 fantasy points per game without Gobert this season. Compare that to his 19.3 fantasy points per game average with Gobert, and you see a huge increase. He sees a two percent boost in rebounding rates, a slight usage rate increase, and jumps from .93 fantasy points per minute to 1.02 fantasy points per minute without Gobert on the floor.

On paper, this looks like a tough matchup, with the Pelicans ranking 7th in fantasy points allowed to centers (50.38) but they rank near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency to centers over the last 10 games. During that span, they have allowed 21.6 points, 13.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 3.6 combined blocks and steals in those 10 games. They have allowed opponents to shoot 55.8 percent in that time, as well. They are giving up 43.3 rebounds, 45.2 points in the paint, and 13.6 second-chance points. Favors is attempting over 60 percent of his shots at the rim or in the paint, where opponents are shooting 64.2 and 39.7 percent respectively, and he leads the team in paint points at 8.4. The last time these teams faced off, Favors was relied upon heavily and played almost 34 minutes. He had 18 points with 11 rebounds in that game, to go along with five assists and two steals, and could be in line for another big game against a weak Pelicans defense.

Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Boston Celtics

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

33

-

24

44.9

20.06

31.85

26.73

DK Salary: $5,300 / FD Salary: $5,600

There will probably be plenty of hype around the Kyrie Irving revenge game against Cleveland tonight, which is fine because we can find some excellent leverage against the field in Jaylen Brown. Now, Kyrie Irving is a great play, don't get me wrong, but he isn't the only great play from that game. Brown returned from a two-game absence against Brooklyn and looked outstanding. He posted 13 points on 5-of-10 shooting, had three rebounds, two assists, two blocks and a steal in 35 minutes. Brown has at least 10 field-goal attempts in three of his last four games, and six of his last 10 games, and is connecting on 51 percent of those attempts. He is attempting 44 percent of his shots at the rim this season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among wings, and 36 percent of his attempts are coming from beyond-the-arc. He has been excellent in transition, scoring 1.17 points per play with a 23.8 percent frequency, and is averaging .89 points per play in isolation. He is also averaging 9.2 rebound chances per game while converting 61.4 percent of those chances.

The Cavaliers, while improved, are still a struggling defense at times. They rank 18th in defensive efficiency against shooting guards over the last 10 games, allowing 23.2 points, six rebounds, five assists, and 2.5 combined blocks and steals to them. They are also shooting 41.7 percent against them during that span. The Cavaliers are not a good rim protection team, allowing opponents to shoot 65.7 percent at the rim, and they also struggle to defend the 3-point line. They are allowing opponents to connect on 37.1 percent of their attempts from beyond-the-arc and opponents are attempting 32.1 3-pointers against them. When these teams faced off on opening night, Brown racked up 25 points with six rebounds and he could easily do that again tonight.

John Henson, C, Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

35

106.5

27

48.7

15.79

24.63

26.09

DK Salary: $4,800 / FD Salary: $5,800

Using anyone from Milwaukee outside of Middleton, Giannis, and Bledsoe can be frustrating at times, considering Jason Kidd use numbers in a hat to determine his minutes, but it is a frustration that I am willing to put up with when using Henson tonight. Henson has performed rather well as of late, averaging 23.8 fantasy points per game over the last six games and he has played 25.2 minutes per game during that span. He has two 30-plus fantasy point outings over his last 10 games, and for the most part, has had no issues achieving value at his price. Henson is second on the team in rebound chances per game at 11.8 and he is converting on 56.4 of those chances per game. He leads the team in paint touches with 7.3, averages 6.6 paint points per game, and leads the team in second-chance points at 1.6 per game. While none of those numbers are especially eye-popping, but given the matchup against Indiana, I think he can outperform them tonight.

The Pacers are giving up 106.7 points per game on the season, but have struggled recently, allowing 108 points per game over their last three games. Those games have come with Victor Oladipo out of the lineup, as he is tonight, and they will continue to struggle. They have given up 43.3 rebounds, 46.7 points in the paint, and 13.3 second-chance points on the season, and they rank 30th in the NBA in defensive efficiency to centers over the last 10 games. During that stretch of games, they have surrendered 23.9 points, 14.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and three combined blocks and steals while allowing centers to shoot 60 percent from the floor. On the season, they have allowed opponents to shoot 64.6 percent at the rim and are allowing 1.14 points per play to the roll man in the pick-and-roll. Henson, while not especially effective as the roll man, is averaging 1.31 points per play as a roll man. This sets up for an excellent game for Henson and he is a great source of value.

Ryan Anderson, PF/C, Houston Rockets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

27

114

28

48.1

12.82

19.95

18.82

DK Salary: $4,600 / FD Salary: $4,300

While Chris Paul and Eric Gordon will garner most of the attention tonight, with James Harden out, there is plenty of other fantasy goodness to go around. Obviously, the aforementioned two are great options, but we shouldn't overlook Ryan Anderson in this spot. I will be the first to admit that I hate Ryan Anderson as a player, I hate using him in DFS, and the thought of using him gives me a case of "The Rodney Hoods" (gastric distress) but sometimes we have to put our feelings aside when the numbers suggest someone is a great option. Anderson is volatile, which is why he is GPP only for me, as evidenced by recent performances of 24.5, 24.5, 20.25, and 33.5 fantasy point performances sandwiched between 11.5 and 14.5 fantasy point games. All of that being said, Anderson is averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute, with a 19.1 percent usage rate, in 99.9 minutes with Harden off the floor. He is still an excellent 3-point shooter, connecting on 38.2 of his attempts, and he is shooting 43.1 percent from the floor. A total of 70 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming from beyond-the-arc this season. He is averaging 1.34 points per play in transition and 1.12 points per play on spot-ups. He also has a solid rebounding floor against a Magic team giving up 46.6 rebounds per game.

The Magic are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, giving up 110.2 points per game on the season, and they rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. They are giving up 48.1 fantasy points per game to the position. Over the last 10 games, Orlando ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency to power forwards, allowing 24.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and a combined two blocks and steals. They have allowed opposing power forwards to shoot 50.6 percent from the floor, including 45.8 percent from 3-point range, over that span. Opponents are shooting 38.10 percent from 3-point range as whole this season, and they are allowing 1.03 points per play on spot-up attempts. Everything lines up for Anderson to put up a huge game tonight, and he should be strongly considered here. This is also a great spot for Clint Capela, who should have no issues taking advantage of Bismack Biyombo down low.



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