NBA GPP Green Light 1-8-18

Greetings everyone! I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. We have a nice eight-game slate on tap tonight, with some juicy matchups. We have four games with projected totals at 215 or over, three games that are offline due to injuries, and another that is projected at 210. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness on the slate and we have a plethora of injury news already. The Clippers are incredibly shorthanded with Milos Teodosic doubtful, Blake Griffin, Austin Rivers, and Patrick Beverley out. The Spurs are on a back-to-back so we obviously have to await news from them, Kevin Durant is questionable, Brooklyn is banged up, as well, and we will be waiting on news from Detroit on Andre Drummond and Stanley Johnson.

DK Salary: $7,900 / FD Salary: $8,300

The Los Angeles Clippers are running out of healthy bodies and running those that are healthy into the ground, but that is something we can take advantage of for DFS purposes. Williams will likely be a popular option on tonight's slate, which is fine because he has an absurd amount of upside. Williams is averaging 31.5 minutes per game over the last five games, some shortened by blowouts, and he has eclipsed 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Most of that has come off an insane amount of scoring, with 20 or more points in eight of the last ten games, but he has also been operating as the primary ball handler for the team without Teodosic, Rivers, and Beverley. Factoring in the loss of Griffin, as well, and Williams is posting a 36.1 percent usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute in 271.4 minutes. He is operating as the primary ball handler in the pick-and-roll on 42.7 percent of his possessions, where he is averaging .95 points per play and is the team's most efficient player on spot-ups (of remaining healthy bodies).

The Hawks defensive struggles have been well documented by me in the past but they are giving up 107.9 points per game on the season and have allowed opponents to shoot a blistering 47.4 percent from the floor. They struggle to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 37 percent against them. They have been torched by shooting guards, allowing 41.8 fantasy points per game against them, and they struggle to defend the pick-and-roll and spot-up shooters. The Hawks are giving up .89 points per play to the pick-and-roll ball handler and 1.02 points per play on spot-ups. Williams should have no issues picking apart this "defense" tonight and he is a lock-and-load for me.

DK Salary: $7,600 / FD Salary: $7,900

I will admit that I have a soft spot for Kyle Lowry, I am not sure why but I do. That tends to get me in trouble more often than not, mostly because he has been incredibly volatile this season, but tonight is the night that I am hoping it pays off. Lowry and the Raptors head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets, in what should be an all-around good game for fantasy purposes. The Raptors have been on a roll recently, averaging 123.8 points per game over the last four games, and they will be facing off against a Nets team that has only allowed an average of 94.8 points per game over the last five games. Lowry has had his struggles at times this season, mostly due to poor shooting, but he has been fairly solid recently with 40 or more fantasy points in four of his last ten games. Reduced minutes have also played a role in his poor performances, as he has played 30 minutes or less in five of the last ten. All of that being said, Lowry has double-digit field goal attempts in eight of those ten games, including seven or more three-point attempts in eight of his last ten. He has done a great job filling up the stat sheet, as well, with multiple games of six or more rebounds and assists recently.

The Nets, despite recent improvements, have struggled all season long against point guards. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (48.7) and rank 24th in defensive efficiency against them on the season. They struggle against the pick-and-roll, allowing .90 points per play to the ball handler, and against spot-up shooters as they are allowing 1.03 points per play to spot-up shooters. While Lowry isn't the team's most effective player on either play type, the majority of his possessions come on those two specific play types and he is fairly efficient on both. He was able to torch the Nets to the tune of 53.5 fantasy points the last time they faced off, with a 10 point, 12 assists, 10 rebound triple-double, and while I don't expect another triple-double tonight, he does have a lot of upside here. This is a great spot for DeMar DeRozan, as well, and they can both be stacked in GPPs.

DK Salary: $4,800 / FD Salary: $5,200

We are at the mercy of Jason Kidd when it comes to which players see significant playing time each night but Brogdon has been a consistent source of value of late. He got the start against Washington, alongside Bledsoe in the frontcourt, and he has played at least 30 minutes in eight of the last ten games. Of those ten games, he has been over 20 fantasy points in eight of those games, as well. He has double-digit field goal attempts in all but three of those games and has done a great job of racking up rebounds and assists to boost his fantasy floor. He gets an excellent matchup against a Pacers team that has struggled most of the season to defend frontcourts and they rank 24th in defensive efficiency to opponent front courts over the last ten games. I am lumping the point guard and shooting guard positions together in this sample, because he will play both positions in this offense, and he will also spend time playing off the ball. Overall, he has a 20.2 percent usage rate over the last ten games and he is averaging .65 fantasy points per minute while on the floor with Giannis, Bledsoe, and Middleton. Brogdon should be the forgotten piece of tonight's game and he absolutely should not be, against a Pacers team that has surrendered 107.4 points per game on the season.

DK Salary: $4,400 / FD Salary: $4,100

I was banging the drum for Ryan Anderson when the Rockets faced off against Orlando, because of the matchup and his home/road splits, and I am banging the drum for him again tonight. Anderson did not disappoint in that game, posting 17 points with seven rebounds in 30 minutes, and we could see a similar performance against Chicago. Anderson is a volatile option, which is why I would only consider him in GPPs, but that matchup and production without Harden is tough to overlook. Without Harden on the floor, Anderson is averaging .83 fantasy points per minute with Harden off the floor, and while that doesn't sound like much, that equates to an increase of 3.65 fantasy points per 36 minutes. His overall rebounding and assist numbers increase without Harden, and of course, he attempts more shots to make up for Harden's absence.

Anderson faces a Bulls team that has struggled to defend the power forward position this season, allowing 42.9 fantasy points per game, and they have ranked 27th in defensive efficiency against the position over the last ten games. During that span they have allowed opposing power forwards to rack up 23.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 53 percent shooting. They have also allowed opposing power forwards to shoot 41.5 percent from beyond-the-arc over those ten games. This is a great spot to attack the Bulls tonight, and Anderson should be the lower owned of the bunch, with most of the hype being on Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and Gerald Green.

DK Salary: $3,600 / FD Salary: $3,500

I am going out on a limb with this last GPP pick today, and the analysis will be a little different. I should preface this by saying that Wallace is only in play if Milos Teodosic sits, which is expected, and even then he is pretty risky but he is a risk that I am willing to take. We only have a one-game sample size of Tyrone Wallace in the NBA but it was a rather impressive debut for him against the Golden State Warriors. Wallace played 31 minutes, shot 4-of-12 from the field, pulled down three boards, had a couple of assists, and three steals while on the court. He also added four free throw attempts. Wallace was the 60th pick in the 2016 draft and has played 23 G-League games for the Clippers. In those games, he has averaged 22.8 points, 5.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals. Because Jawun Evans is extremely foul prone, coach Doc Rivers has talked about getting creative with ball handlers to allow Lou Williams to play off the ball more often. Given the Hawks' struggles to defend, especially against point guards, I think Wallace could be a great GPP option tonight.