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One Day Fantasy Baseball One Day Fantasy Baseball

Greetings everyone! We have a pretty weak four-game slate tonight, with every game projected in the low-to-mid 200s. We aren't waiting for any major injury news outside of Kyle Lowry, at least not at the moment, which is nice. Damian Lillard has already been ruled out, as have Waiters and Winslow, making this a night where things could be pretty straightforward.The biggest decision of the night will be whether or not to fade Westbrook in GPPs, as fading him on a short slate is tough to do, although there are plenty of high-upside options to consider if you want to go that route.

Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

32 103.5 24 48.1 23.85 34.88 34.88

DK Salary: $7,200 / FD Salary: $7,900

There really aren't a lot of great options on tonight's slate, at least not ones that will be under owned, so I am going to highlight some high-upside options to look at. That starts with Elfrid Payton, who has been rather frustrating to roster this season. He has been outstanding of late, averaging 35.4 fantasy points in 32 minutes over his last five, and he has been filling up the stat sheet. Payton reminds me of Russell Westbrook in the way he racks up peripherals and this is just the type of matchup where he could pull down a triple-double. He attacks the rim with reckless abandon and is one of Orlando's most efficient players in the pick-and-roll. Dallas ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed (48.1) to point guards, and they rank 30th in defensive efficiency to point guards over the last 10 games. They have allowed 28.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks and steals over that span. They have also allowed opposing point guards to shoot 51.9 percent from the floor in those games, and they have allowed opponents to shoot almost 70 percent at the rim on the season. With Jonathon Simmons questionable for tonight's game, we could see Elfrid with an even bigger boost to his production. Payton is already averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute with a 23.3 percent usage rate with Vucevic off the floor but those numbers climb to 1.21 fantasy points per minute with a 26.9 percent usage when you take Simmons off the floor, as well. This is a great spot for the entire Magic squad, against a Dallas team giving up 109 points per game over their last ten games, and it is one of the most stackable games on the slate.

Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34

110

27

43.5

16.82

24.52

23.65

DK Salary: $5,400 / FD Salary: $5,500

I mentioned above that the Mavericks have been terrible on defense this season and the same could be said for the Magic. Orlando has surrendered 110.2 points per game on the season, and 112.5 over their last ten games, and have struggled to defend opposing wings. Matthews has been a key cog in the Mavericks offense this season and he has been playing heavy minutes of late. He has seen at least 34 minutes in six of the last ten games, and we know that minutes equals money in DFS. He has been much better at home this season, where he is shooting over 40 percent from three-point range, compared to 36.3 percent on the road, and he is averaging 3.5 fantasy points more per game at American Airlines Arena. He has double-digit field goal attempts in five consecutive outings, including two games where he attempted nine and ten three-pointers and is an excellent spot-up shooter. The Magic have allowed opposing shooting guards to average 43.5 fantasy points per game against them, and small forwards have averaged 42.24, and they rank near the bottom of the NBA in defensive efficiency against both wing positions. Matthews generally starts at the shooting guard position but often times shifts over to the small forward spot when Dallas goes small. Given Orlando's struggles to defend the three-point line, especially corner threes, and their inability to close out on spot-up shooters, this is a spot where Matthews could go off. His price has risen on both DraftKings and FanDuel but we have seen him flash 30-plus fantasy upside in two of his last three games, and can do that again tonight.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

31

102.5

22

42

17.57

24.18

23.56

DK Salary: $4,800 / FD Salary: $5,200

Tonight's matchup between the Lakers and Kings has plenty of fantasy appeal, and I think Bogdanovic will be an overlooked piece of that. Bogdanovic is coming off the bench for Sacramento but he is still outplaying most of the starters in minutes. He has at least 30 minutes in five of his last ten games, and has seen at least 28 minutes in all but two of those remaining ten games. Bogdanovic is an effective ball-handler on the second unit and leads the team in isolation and pick-and-roll efficiency. He is second on the team in transition efficiency, as well, and all three of those are areas where the Lakers struggle to defend. He played 26 minutes against this Lakers team the last time they faced off on 14 points with seven assists. The Lakers struggle to defend both wing positions, ranking 28th and 29th in defensive efficiency against them over the last ten games, and they rank 14th against the point guard position over that span. I don't expect George Hill to play tonight, and Frank Mason should sit as well, meaning Bogdanovic will see a decent usage boost. He has a 20.3 percent usage rate with Mason and Hill off the floor while averaging .84 fantasy points per minute. With this being a back-to-back for Sacramento, we could see Randolph or someone else rest, as well, giving Bogdanovic an even bigger boost. I like him a lot at his price across the industry and is a great pivot off the chalk options like De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, and Willie Cauley-Stein.



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