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One Day Fantasy Baseball One Day Fantasy Baseball

Happy Hump Day everyone! I hope you guys had good nights last night with two of the three GPP plays absolutely crushing (Thanks a lot Joel Embiid!!!). Let's keep it rolling tonight as I take a look at my five top GPP targets from this massive 12-game slate. We have plenty of injuries to keep an eye on, so I will run through some of the most important ones first. Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia, Dennis Smith Jr., Gary Harris, Derrick Favors, Donovan Mitchell, Goran Dragic, Serge Ibaka, and the entire Kings team are some names to keep an eye on throughout the day. There is only one game projected over 220 points, and that is a matchup between the Lakers and Rockets, with the majority of the games either offline due to injury news or in the 209 to 218 range.

Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

34 106.75 21 41.8 21.39 38.42 36.78

DK Salary: $8,200 / FD Salary: $8,500

I apologize to anyone playing FanDuel today as it seems they chose to keep the early game off their main slate, don't ask me why, but this game is available on DraftKings and may become available if FanDuel runs a weird early slate or something. I didn't want to pass up to target Kyle Lowry tonight as the Raptors take on the Hornets in Charlotte. After breaking out of his slump late last month, Lowry has mostly struggled in December, averaging 14.3 points on 36.4 percent shooting, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, but he has flashed triple-double upside recently as we just saw against the Brooklyn Nets. With is shooting numbers trending up over the last two games, I am starting to believe that he is breaking out of his slump and I want to be one of the first ones on that train when it happens. Lowry has taken a backseat in usage and production to DeMar DeRozan on the season but he will see a decent boost if Serge Ibaka is unable to suit up tonight. With Ibaka off the floor, Lowry has a 25.3 percent usage rate and is averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute. The last time these two teams faced off, albeit, with no Kemba Walker, Lowry racked up 36 points on 66.7 percent shooting, five rebounds, and six assists.

The Hornets have been a sieve on defense this season, allowing 106.6 points per game, and have struggled to defend point guards all season long. They rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to the position, surrendering 41.8 per game, and they rank 20th in defensive efficiency. Opposing point guards have averaged 23 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 9,2 assists against them, and if they are going to continue allowing them to rack up peripherals like that, Lowry is in line for a great game. Charlotte has allowed opposing point guards to shoot 42.6 percent from the floor, and 36.9 percent from three-point range, so Lowry's recent improved shooting should continue. Because of the size of this slate, there are a lot of excellent point guard options to consider, and Lowry will likely come in as one of the lower owned ones on the slate.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

31

105.75

13

38.5

22.91

32.86

33.48

DK Salary: $6,100 / FD Salary: $7,400

It has been quite some time since a member of the Nets graced this article, so it is only fitting that my man Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the one to do it this time. RHJ has quietly enjoyed an impressive month of December, averaging a team-high 14.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, two assists, and a combined two blocks and steals. He has eclipsed 30 fantasy points in five of his eight December games and has been over 36 in three of those five games. The minutes have been encouraging for him, as well, as he has seen at least 30 minutes in the majority of non-blowout games. He gets an excellent matchup against the Kings, whose interior defense has been sub-standard this season, allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent in the paint. He is attempting 30 percent of his shots in the paint and is connecting on 40 percent of those shots.

The Kings are coming into town on the heels of a back-to-back against the Sixers, in which the duo of Trevor Booker and Dario Saric combined to put up only 17 points with 15 rebounds, but have ranked 24th in defensive efficiency to power forwards over the last 10 games. They have allowed 24.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and a combined 3.1 blocks and steals to the position during that span. They struggle to defend the roll-man in the pick-and-roll, allowing 1.19 points per play, and RHJ ranks in the 87th percentile among all NBA players in scoring efficiency on that play type with 1.32 points per play. The Kings have also struggled to defend post-ups, allowing 1.05 points per play, and RHJ is second in the NBA in post-up efficiency, averaging 1.28 points per play. RHJ is in a prime spot for another great game, and it looks like he will go overlooked here.

Alex Len, PF/C, Phoenix Suns

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

28

-

21

53.1

19.05

32.76

33.32

DK Salary: $5,600 / FD Salary: $5,700

I am already having nightmares about Jay Triano benching Alex Len after he has been playing so well, but that is what makes him such a great GPP option tonight, and you have to take some risks on slates this big if you want to take down the big one! Len has been playing out of his mind recently and has posted over 30 fantasy points in three-straight games, including a 50-plus point outing against the Timberwolves, and has at least 24 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He has been putting up these numbers despite playing limited minutes, although two of his last three games he has seen 28 minutes. If that trend continues, there is no way he doesn't smash value in a great matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Clippers, despite popular belief, are not a good defense right now. Granted, the reason for that is injuries, but why they are bad doesn't really matter, now does it? They have given up 106.5 points per game on the season, and while that has gone down to 105.6 per game over their last 10 games, things haven't actually improved. Over the last 10 games, opponents have shot 66.4 percent at the rim and have pulled down 44 rebounds per game, and they have ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency to centers. The Clippers are giving up 20.5 points and 15.1 rebounds to big men over those 10 games. Just to show you guys how bad it has been for the Clippers against big men, here is a list of the big men they have faced over those 10 games: Pau Gasol, Kelly Olynyk, Marcin Gortat (twice), Nikola Vucevic, Jonas Valanciunas, Karl-Anthony Towns (twice), Dirk Nowitzki, and Derrick Favors. Of those 10 big men, Marcin Gortat and Dirk Nowitzki are the only ones who didn't top 30 fantasy points against them. Out of all those previously mentioned big men, Alex Len ranks behind only Marcin Gortat in rebound chances per game, but unlike Gortat, Len is converting on over 60 percent of his rebound chances. Len should be able to pull down double-digit boards with ease, and if he can get close to 30 minutes, he should be able to have a big game.

Darren Collison, PG, Indiana Pacers

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

31

108.75

16

46.2

17.65

31.31

31.00

DK Salary: $5,600 / FD Salary: $5,800

Darren Collison has been incredibly frustrating to roster as of late but that should change tonight as he gets a premier matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. He is coming off a bad game against the Celtics, which is to be expected, but was outstanding against the Nets the previous game and had a couple of good outings in previous games against the Knicks and Raptors earlier this month. Because of the upside, he has flashed, and the matchup against Atlanta, I just can't overlook him tonight. Unfortunately, Collison has a fairly low usage rate on this team, but he is still attempting 8-10 shots per game most nights and is contributing with plenty of rebounds, assists, and steals each night.

We know the Hawks are terrible on defense and they have allowed 108.7 points per game on the season, and their point guard defense is no better. The Hawks rank 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards on the season, but we have seen them move to 9th in efficiency over the last 10 games. Before we get our panties in a wad over their recent improvement, it is important to look at who they have faced over those 10 games. They played Brooklyn twice, Cleveland twice, the Knicks, Miami (without Dragic), Detroit, Orlando twice, and Toronto. When Jose Calderon, Tyler Johnson, Reggie Jackson, Elfrid Payton, and Jarrett Jack are the guards you play against most during those games, of course, it is going to look like they are improving, and I am not buying into it one bit. The Hawks are getting torched from beyond-the-arc, allowing opponents to shoot almost 38 percent from three, and have allowed 32.3 three-point attempts per game. They have especially struggled to defend corner-threes, allowing opponents to shoot 40.7 percent on corner-three attempts, where 10 percent of Collison's field-goal attempts are coming from this season. They cannot defend in isolation, pick-and-roll ball handlers, and spot-up shooters and all of those are areas where Collison excels this season. He leads the team in isolation and ball-handling efficiency and is second on the team in spot-up efficiency. This is the spot to jump on board with Collison, while the crowd looks elsewhere, then hop off after tonight's game.

Julius Randle, PF/C, Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Minutes

Team Total

DvP

FPPG Allowed

Usage Rate

DK Projection

FD Projection

32

106

1

41.7

22.07

44.48

43.84

DK Salary: $5,400 / FD Salary: $5,500

The Lakers announced yesterday that Brook Lopez would be sidelined for about three weeks due to a sprained ankle, which will open things up in the LA frontcourt. There is still quite the logjam at both power forward and center, as the Lakers have Andrew Bogut, Ivica Zubac, Larry Nance, Kyle Kuzma, and Julius Randle that can play both positions, but I am betting on Randle being the one that gets a decent amount of run tonight against the Rockets. Of course, we can also use any of those previously mentioned players, so don't overlook them either, but Randle is most definitely my favorite here. Randle has been phenomenal for the Lakers off the bench this season and is coming off only his third 30-plus minute game as he played 30:49 against the Warriors. Against the Warriors, Randle pulled down 11 boards and put up 15 points, while attempting 15 shots. Against this same Rockets team earlier this year, Randle only played 15 minutes, but he put up five points and five rebounds in those limited minutes. Brook Lopez played in that game, which definitely took away from his upside, and without Lopez or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on the floor this season, Randle is averaging a 25 percent usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute. Assuming he sees around 30 minutes tonight, he should easily eclipse 30 fantasy points which would definitely pay off his salary.

The Rockets are a very scary opponent, as they have been blowing everyone out, but the Lakers have played pretty well as of late and could keep this game closer than expected tonight. They have surrendered 46.6 points in the paint on the season, but only 40.8 rebounds, and have struggled to defend in transition and roll men in the pick-and-roll. Randle leads the Lakers in points in the paint per game with 8.7 and is one of the top roll men in the NBA. He is averaging 1.39 points per play on rolls this season, and the Rockets are giving up 1.1 points per play on that play type. The Lakers will be a popular target on tonight's slate, despite the blowout risk, and Randle could be one of those popular options, but I won't shy away from him because of that. His price is just too cheap for a guy that can get us 35-40 fantasy points in this spot.



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